O c t o b e r 2 The Future of Jobs

Share of in-country measures (%)
15.5
13.3
12.5
11.3
9.8
9.4
9.2
7.8
6.2
3.5
0.7
0.5
0.2
0
5
10
15
20

---

The Future of Jobs
43
Duration of cash-transfer programmes in months
Participation in job-retention schemes 
F I G U R E 3 4
F I G U R E 3 5
Source
Gentilini, et al, 2020.
Source
OECD Economic Outlook June 2020
, based 
on national sources.
#$
%&'
1 month
20%
1-2 months
14%
3 months
52%
12 months
2%
3-6 months
14%
0
20
40
60
80
Share of dependent employees (%)
New Zealand
France
Switzerland
Italy
Austria
Portugal
United Kingdom
Germany
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Australia
Belgium
Ireland
Czech Republic
Spain
Canada
Sweden
Denmark
Norway
Finland
Latvia
United States

---

The Future of Jobs
44
Countries that score high have well-developed 
social safety nets and protection as well as high 
levels of public service efficiency. Countries in the 
bottom-left quadrant of Figure 36 have low social 
resilience scores and at the same time are projected 
to experience lower economic disruption under this 
scenario. Countries in that quadrant include Mexico 
and the Republic of Korea. Those in the top-right 
quadrant can expect to see high disruption to 
employment but also have a high social resilience 
score. They include Ireland, the United Kingdom and 
Spain. Countries in the bottom-right quadrant can 
expect to see high labour market disruption and also 
have a low social resilience score. Those countries 
include Colombia, Turkey and the United States. 
In summary, scenarios such as these suggest that 
some economies will experience a ‘double-hit’ 
scenario—relatively low coverage of social protection 
mechanisms in place to protect workers heavily 
displaced from the labour market. 
Projected impact of COVID-19 on employment growth against an index 
of social resiliance, OECD countries
F I G U R E 3 6
Source
OECD Economic Outlook 2020
, OECD, and Social Mobility 
Index, World Economic Forum.
Note
Forecasts for Q4 2020 produced by the OECD assuming two 
waves of COVID-19, namely a "double hit" scenario.