The Art of Thinking Clearly: Better Thinking, Better Decisions

Particularly amusing is this recent telephone survey: a company wanted to find
out, on average, how many phones (landline and cell) each household owned.
When the results were tallied, the firm was amazed that not a single household
claimed to have no phone. What a masterpiece.
See also Alternative Paths (ch. 39); Feature-Positive Effect (ch. 95); Swimmer’s Body
Illusion (ch. 2)

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48
WHY EXPERIENCE CAN DAMAGE OUR JUDGEMENT
Association Bias
Kevin has presented his division’s results to the company’s board on three
occasions. Each time, things have gone perfectly. And, each time, he has worn
his green polka-dot boxer shorts. It’s official, he thinks: these are my lucky
underpants.
The girl in the jewellery store was so stunning that Kevin couldn’t help buying
the $10,000 engagement ring she showed him. Ten thousand bucks was way
over his budget (especially for a second marriage), but for some reason he
associated the ring with her and imagined his future wife would be just as
dazzling.
Each year, Kevin goes to the doctor for a check-up. Generally, he is told that,
for a man of 44, he is still in pretty good shape. Only twice has he left the practice
with worrying news. Once the problem was his appendix, which was promptly
removed. The other time it was a swollen prostate, which, upon further inspection,
turned out to be a simple inflammation rather than cancer. Of course, on both
occasions, Kevin was beside himself with worry when leaving the clinic – and
coincidentally, both days were extremely hot. Since then, he has always felt
uncomfortable on very warm days. If the temperature starts to heat up around one
of his check-ups, he cancels straight away.
Our brain is a connection machine. This is quite practical: if we eat an unknown
fruit and feel sick afterward, we avoid it in future, labelling the plant poisonous or
at least unpalatable. This is how knowledge comes to be. However, this method
also creates false knowledge. Russian scientist Ivan Pavlov was the first to
conduct research into this phenomenon. His original goal was to measure
salivation in dogs. He used a bell to call the dogs to eat, but soon the ringing
sound alone was enough to make the dogs salivate. The animals’ brains linked
two functionally unrelated things – the ringing of a bell and the production of
saliva.
Pavlov’s method works equally well with humans. Advertising creates a link
between products and emotions. For this reason, you will never see Coke

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alongside a frowning face or a wrinkly body. Coke people are young, beautiful
and oh so fun, and they appear in clusters not seen in the real world.
These false connections are the work of the 
association bias
, which also
influences the quality of our decisions. For example, we often condemn bearers
of bad news, since we automatically associate them with the message’s content
(otherwise known as 
shoot-the-messenger syndrome
). Sometimes, CEOs and
investors (unconsciously) steer clear of these harbingers, meaning the only news
that reaches the upper echelons is positive, thus creating a distorted view of the
real situation. If you lead a group of people, and don’t want to fall prey to false
connections, direct your staff to tell you only the bad news – and fast. With this,
you overcompensate for the 
shoot-the-messenger syndrome
and, believe me, you
will still hear enough positive news.
In the days before email and telemarketing, travelling salesmen went door to
door peddling their wares. One day, a particular salesman, George Foster, stood
at a front door. The house turned out to be vacant, and unbeknownst to him, a tiny
leak had been filling it with gas for weeks. The bell was also damaged, so when
he pressed it, it created a spark and the house exploded. Poor George ended up
in hospital, but fortunately he was soon back on his feet. Unfortunately, his fear of
ringing doorbells had become so strong that for many years he couldn’t go back
to his job. He knew how unlikely a repeat of the incident was, but for all he tried,
he just couldn’t manage to reverse the (false) emotional connection.
The take-home message from all this is phrased most aptly by Mark Twain: ‘We
should be careful to get out of an experience only the wisdom that is in it – and
stop there; lest we be like the cat that sits down on a hot stove-lid. She will never
sit down on a hot stove-lid again – and that is well; but also she will never sit
down on a cold one anymore.’