participants in innovative start-ups a question: To what
extent will the outcome of your effort depend on what you
do in your firm? This is evidently an easy question; the
answer comes quickly and it has never been less than 80%.
Even when they are not sure they will succeed, these bold
people think their fate is almost entirely in their own hands.
They are surely wrong: the outcome of a start-up depends as
much on the achievements of its competitors and on
changes in the market as on its own efforts. However,
entrepreneurs naturally focus on what they know best—their
plans and actions and the most immediate threats and
opportunities, such as the availability of funding. They know
less about their competitors and therefore find it natural to
imagine a future in which the competition plays little part.
We all do this to some extent.
And like my daughter, it doesn’t bother us a bit.
We don’t wander around blind and confused. We have to
think the world we operate in makes sense based on what
we happen to know. It’d be too hard to get out of bed in the
morning if you felt otherwise.
But the alien circling over Earth?
The one who’s confident he knows what’s happening based
on what he sees but turns out to be completely wrong
because he can’t know the stories going on inside everyone
else’s head?
He’s all of us.
Congratulations, you’re still reading.
It’s time to tie together a few things we’ve learned.
This chapter is a bit of a summary; a few short and
actionable lessons that can help you make better financial
decisions.
First, let me tell you a story about a dentist appointment
gone horribly awry. It teaches us something vital about the
dangers of giving advice about what to do with your money.
Clarence Hughes went to the dentist in 1931. His mouth was
radiating pain. His dentist put him under crude anesthesia
to ease the pain. When Clarence awoke hours later he had
16 fewer teeth and his tonsils removed.
And then everything went wrong. Clarence died a week later
from his surgery’s complications.
His wife sued the dentist, but not because the surgery went
awry. Every surgery risked death in 1931.
Clarence, she said, never consented to the procedures in the
first place, and wouldn’t if he were asked.
The case wove through courts, but went nowhere. Consent
between doctor and patient wasn’t black and white in 1931.
One court summed up the idea that doctors require freedom
to make the best medical decisions: “Without such, we
could not enjoy the advancement of science.”
For most of history the ethos of medicine was that the
doctor’s job was to fix the patient, and what the patient
thought about the doctor’s treatment plans wasn’t relevant.
Dr. Jay Katz wrote about the philosophy in his book The
Silent World Between Doctor and Patient:
Doctors felt that in order to accomplish that objective they
were obligated to attend to their patients’ physical and
emotional needs and to do so on their own authority,
without consulting with their patients about the decisions
that needed to be made. The idea that patients may also be
entitled to sharing the burdens of decisions with their
doctors was never part of the ethos of medicine.
This wasn’t ego or malice. It was a belief in two points:
Every patient wants to be cured.
There is a universal and right way to cure them.
Not requiring patient consent in treatment plans makes
sense if you believe in those two points.
But that’s not how medicine works.
In the last 50 years medical schools subtly shifted teaching
away from treating disease and toward treating patients.
That meant laying out the options of treatment plans, and
then letting the patient decide the best path forward.
This trend was partly driven by patient-protection laws,
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