Tech’s Good-Looking Corpse
The research of NYU Stern’s Professor of Finance Aswath Damodaran
highlights that technology firms experience the traditional company life cycle
at an increased speed. They age in dog years, if you will.
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The good news is that these tech companies can launch a product, scale the
firm, and acquire customers faster than other industries, which face
annoyances like real estate, capital requirements or distribution channels that
might require years, and a huge labor force, to create. The bad news: the
same rocket fuel that sends a tech firm to the Moon also is available to a bevy
of younger, smarter, faster competitors coming up fast behind them.
Male lions have a life expectancy of 10–14 years in the wild. However,
they live twenty years or more in captivity.
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Why? Because, in captivity,
they aren’t constantly challenged by other males. Males in the wild usually
die of injuries from fights protecting or challenging the throne. Very few die
of old age.
Tech companies are like alpha male lions in the wild. It’s good to be king
—a higher multiple on earnings, rapid wealth (when it works), and the love
and admiration of a society that sees its innovators as rock stars. However,
everyone wants to be king. All it takes is strength, speed, violent aggression,
and being too stupid to know you will fail, to dethrone the king.
Apple not only transitioned from one of the greatest visionaries to one of
the greatest operators—it has been able to extend its life by transitioning to a
luxury brand. How? Apple recognized that the CEO after Steve Jobs needed
to be an operator who understood how to scale the firm. If Apple’s board had
wanted a visionary, it would have made Jony Ive CEO.
Vision(less)
I’d argue Apple lacks a vision; however, it still thrives, as making the iPhone
bigger and then smaller again is genius in its simplicity (let’s take the best
bread in the world and slice it a bunch of ways). The firm also has bought
more time as it’s realized it has the brand, and assets, to make expensive
(both capital and time) investments in becoming a luxury brand that other
tech firms cannot.
As early as the Macintosh, Apple realized it wanted off the tech train and
moved away from the ethos of offering more each year for less money
(Moore’s Law). Apple’s business today is to sell to people goods, services,
and emotions—being closer to God and being more attractive. Apple delivers
those factors via semiconductor and display technology, powers them with
electricity, and wraps them in luxury. It’s a potent and intoxicating blend that
has created the most profitable company in history. You used to be what you
wore, and some now believe you are what you eat. But who you really are
has become what you text on.
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