• • •
M E S S AG E 1 :
We based this message on
statistics published by the
Florida Museum of Natural History:
You’re more likely to drown on a beach
in an area protected by
a lifeguard than you are to be attacked by a shark, much less killed
by one. In the United States in 2000, twelve people died in lifeguard-
protected areas. There were no fatalities from sharks. (In a typical
year there are only 0.4 fatalities.)
C O M M E N T S O N M E S S AG E 1 :
This is okay but not great. This message
taps internal credibility—the credibility of hard statistics. We have two
comments: First, drowning does not seem
like the right comparison
to make, because many people may think drowning is a common
cause of death. “Drowning is more common than shark attacks”
does not feel particularly unexpected. (And maybe we’re too skepti-
cal, but the presence of the college-student lifeguard never struck us
as an ironclad guarantee of safety.) Second, the statistical compari-
son—12 deaths versus 0.4—is good, but it isn’t particularly vivid or
meaningful on a human scale. It’s unlikely that anyone would re-
member these numbers a week later.
• • •
M E S S AG E 2 :
This message is also based on statistics published by the
Florida Museum of Natural History:
Which of these animals is more likely to kill you?
A SHARK
A DEER
A N S W E R :
The deer is more likely to kill you. In fact, it’s
300
times more likely to kill you (via a collision with your car).
C R E D I B L E
149
C O M M E N T S O N M E S S AG E 2 :
We like the unexpected idea that Bambi is
more dangerous than the evil shark, followed by the doubly unex-
pected statistic that Bambi is
wildly more dangerous (
300 times more
deadly!). It’s absurd to the point of being funny, and humor is a nice
antidote to the fear generated by shark-attack stories. In a sense, we’re
fighting emotional associations with emotional associations (see the
next chapter).
This message taps internal credibility with the statistic, but it also
taps into the audience as a source of credibility.
People in the audience
know how much they fear deer when they’re driving around—i.e., not
much. Few of us are afraid to go out in the evening on account of lurk-
ing deer. We know that we don’t fear deer, so why should we fear
sharks? (This is more effective than comparing shark attacks with
drowning—after all, most of us have at least a mild fear of drowning.)
S C O R E C A R D
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