Forecasting hazards, averting disasters

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8  Conclusion

The field of early action is rapidly advancing and its 

proponents are identifying similar sets of challenges and 

modifying the mechanisms to deal with many of these. 

Although limitations persist in the forecasting skill and 

capacities needed to generate and interpret data, establish 

triggers and target vulnerable populations, the evidence 

seems clear that early action can reduce disaster losses 

and has the potential to reduce the humanitarian burden. 

More can be done in this regard with existing forecast 

information and impact data. With the increasing risks 

of more severe and frequent weather events driven by 

climate change, FbA offers an important new tool to 

better manage these risks.

As well as reducing loss and damage associated with 

known hazards and predictable disasters, FbA has the 

potential to improve long-term financial planning in the 

humanitarian sector and clarify responsibilities for early 

action. It will only do so, however, if the use of forecasts 

can be integrated into humanitarian and DRR systems, and 

decision-making protocols are established in advance to 

identify concrete actions, roles and responsibilities. To have 

a significant impact, FbA will need to be adopted at scale, 

building on existing delivery channels and strengthening 

these, and draw on a range of financing mechanisms.

For these mechanisms to expand and become a core 

component of humanitarian action and disaster risk 

management, some fundamental principles are needed. 

FbA is gaining traction in countries where governments 

have some forecasting capacity and their own delivery 

mechanisms for supporting vulnerable households, so 

engaging with government agencies in the design and 

modification of these mechanisms will be critical. Care 

must be taken, however, to ensure that FbA mechanisms 

are free from political manipulation by donors or 

national governments and retain their function as a 

robust, science-based and effective ex ante mechanism 

for resource allocation.

FbA requires a clear articulation of roles and 

responsibilities, based on comparative advantage, 

capacity and access to resources. Careful monitoring of 

how funds are spent and regular evaluations can improve 

the effectiveness of FbA and enhance accountability. 

FbA should be seen as a more robust decision-making 

approach to the allocation of humanitarian or 

contingency funding resources, and although new funds 

have been created in some cases to facilitate early action, 

in the future FbA will have to avoid creating parallel 

funding systems and planning structures. Existing donor 

and government funds and other financing mechanisms 

will need to be expanded to support FbA, linking 

where possible to existing early warning systems and 

contingency planning processes. 

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