Algorithms For Dummies

Understanding Moore’s implications

What Moore stated in that article actually proved true for many years, and the 

semiconductor industry calls it Moore’s Law (see 

http://www.mooreslaw.org/

 

for details). Doubling did occur for the first ten years, as predicted. In 1975, Moore 

corrected his statement, forecasting a doubling every two years. Figure 12-1 shows 

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  Managing Big Data 

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the effects of this doubling. This rate of doubling is still valid, although now it’s 

common opinion that it won’t hold longer than the end of the present decade (up 

to about 2020). Starting in 2012, a mismatch occurs between the expectation of 

cramming more transistors into a component to make it faster and what 

semiconductor companies can achieve with regard to miniaturization. In truth, 

physical barriers exist to integrating more circuitry into an integrated circuit 

using the present silica components. (However, innovation will continue; you can 

read the article at 

http://www.nature.com/news/the-chips-are-down-for-moore- 

s-law-1.19338

 for more details.) In addition, Moore’s Law isn’t actually a law. 

Physical laws, such as the law of universal gravitation (which explains why things 

are attracted to the ground as discovered by Newton), are based on proofs of 

various sorts that have received peer review for their accuracy. Moore’s Law isn’t 

anything more than mere observation, or even a tentative goal for the industry to 

strive to achieve (a self-fulfilling prophecy, in a certain sense).

In the future, Moore’s Law may not apply anymore because industry will switch 

to new technology (such as making components by using optical lasers instead of 

transistors;  see  the  article  at 

http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/187746- 

by-2020-you-could-have-an-exascale-speed-of-light-optical-computer- 

on-your-desk

 for details about optical computing). What matters is that since 

1965, about every two years the computer industry experienced great advance-

ments in digital electronics that had consequences.

FIGURE 12-1: 

Stuffing more and 

more transistors 

into a CPU.

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  PART 4