Omega produces improved ecosystem conditions, renewable biofuels, and clean water through the use of waste products and non-invasive algae

AT-Shale Solves Dependence

Shale doesn’t solve- it’s expensive and finite

MATTHEW L. WALD 11/12/13 New York Times reporter, B.A. in urban studies from Brown University “Shale’s Effect on Oil Supply Is Forecast to Be Brief” http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/13/business/energy-environment/shales-effect-on-oil-supply-is-not-expected-to-last.html?_r=0

WASHINGTON — The boom in oil from shale formations in recent years has generated a lot of discussion that the United States could eventually return to energy self-sufficiency, but according to a report released Tuesday by the International Energy Agency, production of such oil in the United States and worldwide will provide only a temporary respite from reliance on the Middle East.¶ Enlarge This Image¶ ¶ Andrew Burton/Getty Images¶ Workers with Raven Drilling in Watford City, N.D., in what is known as the Bakken shale formation.¶ The agency’s annual World Energy Outlook, released in London, said the world oil picture was being remade by oil from shale, known as light tight oil, along with new sources like Canadian oil sands, deepwater production off Brazil and the liquids that are produced with new supplies of natural gas.¶ “But, by the mid-2020s, non-OPEC production starts to fall back and countries from the Middle East provide most of the increase in global supply,” the report said. A high market price for oil will help stimulate drilling for light tight oil, the report said, but the resource is finite, and the low-cost suppliers are in the Middle East.¶ “There is a huge growth in light tight oil, that it will peak around 2020, and then it will plateau,” said Maria van der Hoeven, executive director of the International Energy Agency. The agency was founded in response to the Arab oil embargo of 1973-74, by oil-importing nations.¶ The agency’s assessment of world supplies is consistent with an estimate by the United States Energy Department’s Energy Information Administration, which forecasts higher levels of American oil production from shale to continue until the late teens, and then slow rapidly.¶ “We expect the Middle East will come back and be a very important producer and exporter of oil, just because there are huge resources of low-cost light oil,” Ms. van der Hoeven said. “Light tight oil is not low-cost oil.”¶

Current oil boom doesn’t solve dependence- alt energy is key

Will Rogers 5/8/12

Center for a New American Security: “Read This Now: The New American Oil Boom – Implications for Energy Security” http://www.cnas.org/blog/read-this-now-the-new-american-oil-boom-implications-for-energy-security-7350#.U8cXGBb39G5

A new report from Securing America’s Future Energy (SAFE) debunks the myth about America’s oil boom leading to energy independence.¶ The SAFE study, The New American Oil Boom: Implications for Energy Security, comes on the heels of recent reports that increased domestic petroleum production – made possible through technological innovations such as hydraulic fracturing, enhanced oil recovery and improvements in offshore oil production – could make the United States energy independent over the next few decades. “The nature and meaning of energy independence, however, is widely misunderstood,” the authors of the SAFE report state. “Although increased domestic oil production will have clear positive effects on the U.S. economy, it alone will not insulate America from the risks of oil dependence. This can only be accomplished by reducing the role of oil in our economy.”¶ The report correctly notes that while increased U.S. domestic petroleum production will have positive benefits for the U.S. economy (e.g., narrowing the U.S. trade deficit), the United States will still be vulnerable to oil price spikes since oil is a globally traded commodity with prices set by the international market. Consequently, while the United States continues to reduce its reliance on Middle East oil, U.S. security will still be tethered to developments in the Middle East given that events in the region can have immediate and lasting impacts on the price of oil, which has implications for the United States. The only solution, the authors note, is to move away from reliance on oil – that is, diversify our liquid fuel sources, particularly in the transportation sector.¶

AT-Causes Narcotics Trafficking

Drug trafficking in the Middle East is high and increasing- Latin American cartels

Julieta Pelcastre 4/11/14

Los Angeles Post, writer. “Sinaloa Cartel and the FARC traffic drugs to the Middle East” http://dialogo-americas.com/en_GB/articles/rmisa/features/regional_news/2014/04/11/narcotrafico-nuevas-rutas

The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), the Sinaloa Cartel, Los Zetas, and other Latin American transnational criminal organizations are trafficking large amounts of drugs in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and other countries in the Middle East, according to Lt. Gen. Dhahi Khalfan Tamin, deputy chief of the Dubai Police Force.¶ Latin American drug trafficking groups are also laundering millions of dollars in profits in Middle Eastern countries, said Nestor Rosanía, director of the director of the Center for Studies in Security, Defense, and International Affairs (CESDAI) of Colombia.¶ Drug traffickers from Mexico, Colombia, and other countries are looking for new drug markets, said Raul Benítez, a security analyst at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM).¶ Drug cartels seek new markets¶ To maximize their profits, South American and Mexican drug traffickers are always looking for new markets, Benítez said.¶ “The Colombian criminal organizations are looking for safe markets and routes because Mexican cartels are no longer reliable as intermediaries ever since the Mexican government has dealt them heavy blows,” the security analyst said.¶ Latin American drug traffickers have forged alliances with organized crime groups in the Middle East, Benítez said.¶ The FARC, the Sinaloa Cartel, Los Zetas and other transnational criminal organizations are using the UAE as a strategic center for trafficking drugs and money laundering, Johan Obdola, president of the International Organization for Security and Intelligence, told the Khaleej Times. Obdola advises governments in the Middle East how to fight drug trafficking.¶ South American and Mexican transnational criminal organizations have increased their operations in the Middle East over time, Obdola said. During the last 10 years, drug cartels have increased their operations in West Africa. From that region, drug traffickers have been transporting large amounts of drugs to the Middle East, Obdola said.¶ The zero taxation policy of member countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) makes those countries attractive to drug traffickers who are looking for locations to launder their drug profits. The GCC is comprised of the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman.¶ Organized crime groups based in Brazil, Uruguay, El Salvador, Venezuela, and Trinidad and Tobago are also looking for new drug trafficking routes in the GCC region, authorities said.¶ Large drug seizures¶ Authorities in the Middle East have made a series of significant drug seizures in recent months.¶ For example, security services in Lebanon seized 13 kilos of cocaine from a commercial airplane which departed from Brazil. The plane stopped in Qatar before it landed in Lebanon.¶ Saudi Arabian security forces seized a parcel sent from South America which contained 152 grams of cocaine, according to the 2013 Report of the International Narcotics Control Board (INCB).¶ UAE security forces seized 11 tons of drugs in 2013, according to officials with the Federal Anti-Narcotics Agency of the United Arab Emirates.¶ In 2013, security forces in Iran, Pakistan, Oman and the UAE each made drug seizures of more than 10 tons from large ships, according to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC).¶ Latin American drug traffickers “not only break drug laws, but also laws that govern financial institutions,” Lt. Gen. Tamin, deputy chief of the Dubai Police Force, told the website Flarenetwork.org.¶ About 75 percent of the drugs seized in the Middle East were sent from Brazil, according to published reports.¶ Big profits¶ Organized crime groups can make large profits by trafficking drugs to the Middle East. One kilo of cocaine can sell for up to $90,000 (USD) in the Middle East. By comparison, the same amount of cocaine would sell for $30,000 (USD) in the United States, La Nación reported.¶ The increase in drug trafficking in the Middle East has led to greater numbers of arrests for that activity, authorities said.¶ For example, almost 90 percent of the inmates in the UAE were arrested for drug-related crimes, according to a recent survey by the Detainee Organization of the United Kingdom in Dubai.¶ “The drug cartels in Latin America are increasingly decentralizing their activities. The atomization of drug trafficking bands has become more dynamic. There are mini cartels operating independently,” said Rosania, the security analyst from CESDAI.¶ Higher levels of drug trafficking in the Middle East could lead to organized crime violence, according to Rosanía.¶ “The Middle East is becoming a strategic route for transnational criminal groups to move drugs; whoever has control of distribution points, locations, and the purchase and sell of drugs is going to have power and generate violence,” Rosanía said.

Middle East drug trafficking is high now but there are international efforts to curb it

INTERPOL 2/28/14

“Tackling drug trafficking across Middle East and North Africa focus of INTERPOL meeting” http://www.interpol.int/News-and-media/News/2014/N2014-032

LYON, France – Increased information exchange and enhanced coordination were identified as key areas to more effectively tackle drug trafficking during the first INTERPOL meeting of Heads of Drugs Units in the Middle East and North Africa.¶ Bringing together 59 drug investigation specialists and heads of INTERPOL National Central Bureaus (NCBs) from 21 countries in the Middle East and North Africa, Europe and the Americas. The two-day (25 and 26 February) meeting saw participants address issues relating to the criminal organizations involved in drug trafficking and emerging smuggling routes.¶ Special focus was given to the most commonly abused drug substances in the region, in particular captagon, tramadol and Amphetamine-Type Stimulants (ATS), as well as the increasing frequency of large scale heroin interceptions.¶ Jointly organized by INTERPOL’s Middle East and North Africa (MNA) and Drugs and Criminal Organizations (DCO) units, the meeting also saw delegates updated on INTERPOL’s global tools and services which can assist in national, regional and international investigations, including its drug alerts and Notices system.¶ Representatives from other international organizations and bodies including the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, International Narcotics Control Board, World Customs Organization, Arab Interior Minister’s Council, Europol and the Pompidou Group also addressed the meeting to share their experiences and good practice.
Trafficking exists now and manipulates oil markets

National Security Council 10’

“Transnational Organized Crime: A Growing Threat to National and International Security” http://www.whitehouse.gov/administration/eop/nsc/transnational-crime/threat

Threats to the Economy, U.S. Competitiveness, and Strategic Markets. TOC threatens U.S. economic interests and can cause significant damage to the world financial system through its subversion, exploi­tation, and distortion of legitimate markets and economic activity. U.S. business leaders worry that U.S. firms are being put at a competitive disadvantage by TOC and corruption, particularly in emerging markets where many perceive that rule of law is less reliable. The World Bank estimates about $1 trillion is spent each year to bribe public officials, causing an array of economic distortions and damage to legitimate economic activity. The price of doing business in countries affected by TOC is also rising as companies budget for additional security costs, adversely impacting foreign direct investment in many parts of the world. TOC activities can lead to disruption of the global supply chain, which in turn dimin­ishes economic competitiveness and impacts the ability of U.S. industry and transportation sectors to be resilient in the face of such disruption. Further, transnational criminal organizations, leveraging their relationships with state-owned entities, industries, or state-allied actors, could gain influence over key commodities markets such as gas, oil, aluminum, and precious metals, along with potential exploitation of the transportation sector.

AT-Saudi Flood

No Saudi flood- they’re already pursuing alt energy themselves

Dania Saadi 1/18/14 The National Business: “Saudi leads the way as Arabian Gulf countries embrace renewable energy” http://www.thenational.ae/business/energy/saudi-leads-the-way-as-arabian-gulf-countries-embrace-renewable-energy

The UAE’s Arabian Gulf neighbours have announced various renewable energy plans aimed at reducing their reliance on oil and gas for power and water generation, with Saudi Arabia leading the way with an ambitious programme, as the drop in solar energy prices encourages governments.¶ “Governments are well aware that our oil and gas resources are not infinite and require careful management,” said Gus Schellekens, Middle East sustainability leader, and Hannes Reinisch, senior manager for sustainability and renewables, at PricewaterhouseCoopers. “There is a crossover point where our own domestic economies will use more of the hydrocarbon production than is exported, reducing the revenues we can derive from international markets.¶ “Prices have dropped dramatically over the past year for certain renewable technologies, most notably solar photovoltaic. The business case for pursuing solar projects is now stronger than ever.’’¶ For example, Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, plans to generate 54,000 megawatts (MW) from renewable energy by 2032, with 41,000MW coming from solar, 9,000MW from wind, 3,000MW from waste-to-energy and 1,000MW from geothermal power.¶ The kingdom is expected to spend more than US$100 billion to reach these figures over the next two decades and has indicated that it will favour local producers.¶ “Solar enables the governments to not only diversify their fuel mix, but to introduce a new sector for job creation and therefore it is doubly attractive and we are seeing more governments introduce local requirements so that they do not import the energy by importing the solar panel, they are instead manufacturing the energy domestically,’’ said Vahid Fotuhi, the head of strategic advisory at the consultancy Access Advisory.¶ Saudi Electricity, a state-owned utility, has invited companies to build, own and operate Saudi Arabia’s first fossil-fuel fired power plant to use solar energy to cut carbon emissions. The utility’s plan is for the 550MW integrated solar combined cycle plant to run on natural gas, but rely on solar thermal energy to boost fuel efficiency.¶ “Having announced ambitious generation targets for solar and wind in Saudi Arabia, it will be important that a number of pilot projects are delivered successfully at the start,’’ Mr Schellekens and Mr Reinisch said. “This will both help to develop the local skills and experience needed to deliver the larger projects, and reassure international players that the procurement and delivery of new capacity is proceeding in line with international standards and expectations.’’¶

Saudi reserves are greatly overstated- production increases are unsustainable

Wall Street Journal 6/23/14 “Saudi Arabia's Ability to Plug Oil Gap May Be Limited” http://online.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabias-ability-to-plug-oil-gap-may-be-limited-1403517159

LONDON—Saudi Arabia may be willing to use less than half of its declared oil-producing spare capacity to make up for any possible supply shortfalls in Iraq, according to several Gulf officials, meaning its ability to act as a supplier of last resort could be restricted.¶ The Gulf producer, the only country with a significant base of idle capacity, has often said it could ramp up its production to 12.5 million barrels a day in the event of unexpected disruption to oil supplies elsewhere. But Gulf oil officials say that pumping anywhere near that level and sustaining it is only possible on paper.¶ "Saudi Arabia is now producing around 9.7 million barrels a day. Our best case scenario is seeing its output rising by another 1 million barrels a day or 1.3 million if the oil market is in a disastrous state," one Gulf official at the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries told The Wall Street Journal.¶ "Going above that is very difficult to sustain and will require producing quite heavy crudes, which buyers wouldn't want or need," the official said.¶ Any indication that Saudi spare capacity could be lower than expected will do little to calm nerves in global oil markets. Oil prices have been rising in recent weeks as concerns grow about Iraq's 2.6 million barrels a day of exports amid unrest in that country, adding to existing supply issues in Libya and Nigeria.¶ A person familiar with the operations of the kingdom's state-owned giant Saudi Aramco said it could produce up to 11.5 million barrels a day but only for a very short period.¶ "In reality, producers including Saudi Arabia have maintenance schedules and there is always about 10% of one country's production down. You have to remember Saudi also has a spare capacity buffer it likes to maintain," the source said.¶ Saudi Arabia's Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi often said that the Gulf state seeks to maintain spare output capacity of 1.5-2 million barrels a day at all times to cope with emergency shortfalls.¶ Saudi Arabia has never held production over 10 million barrels a day for a long period. Its output of 10.19 million barrels a day in August last year was the highest level since at least 1980, when the country opened the taps to make up for a sharp fall in Iran's output after that country's 1979 revolution.¶ Saudi production "even at 11 million barrels a day, it is untested. We don't know if they can do it," another Gulf oil official said.

Saudi Arabia can no longer influence the oil market- Chinese demand

Brad Plumer 4/4/12

Brad Plumer is a reporter at the Washington Post writing about domestic policy, particularly energy and environmental issues.

“Why Saudi Arabia is losing its power to calm the oil markets” http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/post/why-saudi-arabia-is-losing-its-power-to-calm-the-oil-markets/2012/04/04/gIQABRklvS_blog.html

In the old days, whenever oil prices got bumpy, the United States could ask Saudi Arabia to pump out more crude and calm the markets. But that’s increasingly no longer the case. Saudi production is struggling to keep up with rising demand in places like China. What’s more, as Jim Krane reports today, Saudi Arabia is growing so fast that it’s consuming its own oil at a shocking rate:¶ With domestic electricity demand rising 10% per year in Saudi Arabia, the kingdom now devours more than a quarter of its oil production—nearly three million barrels per day. International Energy Agency figures show that Saudi Arabia now consumes more oil than Germany, an industrialized country with triple the population and an economy nearly five times as large.¶ Worries about Saudi excess capacity are one reason why Iran-related tensions have driven crude prices up so high. By one estimate, this spare capacity could vanish entirely by 2020. If that happens, oil prices will get seriously volatile.

AT-Oil Dependence Checks Terror

Oil dependence effectively funds state-sponsored terror

Erick Stakelbeck 08’

CBN Terror Analyst Export, author, reporter “How America Is Funding Terrorism” http://www.cbn.com/cbnnews/world/2008/July/How-America-Is-Funding-Terrorism-/

In the recent, Academy Award-winning film There Will Be Blood, one man's lust for oil - and the power and wealth that comes with it - eventually drives him mad.¶ The timing of the film is ironic, as the United States' increasing reliance on foreign oil has some Americans questioning their government's sanity. President Bush says America is "addicted to oil"--and that it's time for a change.¶ "America has got to change its habits," he told an audience at the International Renewable Energy Conference in March. "We've got to get off oil...that dependency presents a challenge to our national security. In 1985, 20 percent of America's oil came from abroad. Today that number is nearly 60 percent."¶ Big Oil, Big Terror¶ Much of that imported oil comes from OPEC, a group made up of 13 of the world's most petroleum-rich nations: Saudi Arabia, Libya, Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Angola, Indonesia, Nigeria, Qatar Venezuela and Ecuador.¶ While these nations may have an abundance of oil, most of them lack democracy and human rights. Worse yet, some of them are state sponsors of terrorism -- and sworn enemies of the United States.¶ "With only one or two exceptions, OPEC is effectively dictatorships and autocratic kingdoms," former C.I.A. director James Woolsey tells CBN News.¶ Woolsey is a member of the Set America Free Coalition. The group highlights the national security and economic implications of America's dependence on foreign oil.¶ "Ninety seven percent of our transportation is fueled by oil products of one sort or another," says Woolsey. "And two thirds of the world's proven reserves of conventional oil are in the Middle East, and about that share is also in the hands of OPEC."¶ Gas and oil prices are currently at an all-time high - OPEC sets the market price. Woolsey says Saudi Arabia is using a chunk of its oil wealth to spread its brand of radical Wahhabi Islam worldwide.¶ "The Saudis control about 90 percent of the world's Islamic institutions," he says. "And oil is the reason for that."¶ Iran's big oil profits mean big money for that country's nuclear program and its terrorist proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas.¶ Lately, Iranian Pesident Mahmoud Ahmadenijad has been joined by Venezuela's Hugo Chavez in threatening to help drive oil prices up even further.

American oil demand is fueling terrorism now- alternative energy is key to reverse that trend

IAGS 5’

Institute for the Analysis of Global Terror “Fueling Terror” http://www.iags.org/fuelingterror.html

It is no coincidence that so much of the cash filling terrorists' coffers come from the oil monarchies in the Persian Gulf. It is also no coincidence that those countries holding the world's largest oil reserves and those generating most of their income from oil exports, are also those with the strongest support for radical Islam. In fact, oil and terrorism are entangled. If not for the West's oil money, most Gulf states would not have had the wealth that allowed them to invest so much in arms procurement and sponsor terrorists organizations. ¶ Consider Saudi Arabia. Oil revenues make up around 90-95% of total Saudi export earnings, 70%-80% of state revenues, and around 40% of the country's gross domestic product (GDP). In 2002 alone, Saudi Arabia earned nearly $55 billion in crude oil export revenues. Most wealthy Saudis who sponsor charities and educational foundations that preach religious intolerance and hate toward the Western values have made their money from the petroleum industry or its subsidiaries. Osama bin Laden's wealth comes from the family's construction company that made its fortune from government contracts financed by oil money. It is also oil money that enables Saudi Arabia to invest approximately 40% of its income on weapons procurement. In July 2005 undersecretary of the Treasury Stuart Levey testifying in the Senate noted “Wealthy Saudi financiers and charities have funded terrorist organizations and causes that support terrorism and the ideology that fuels the terrorists' agenda. Even today, we believe that Saudi donors may still be a significant source of terrorist financing, including for the insurgency in Iraq." ¶ If Saudi Arabia is the financial engine of radical Sunni Islam, its neighbor Iran is the powerhouse behind the proliferation of radical Shiite Islam. Iran, OPEC’s second largest oil producer, is holder of 10 percent of the world’s proven oil reserves and has the world’s second largest natural gas reserve. With oil and gas revenues constituting over 80 percent of its total export earning and 50 percent of its gross domestic product, Iran is heavily dependent on petrodollars. It is a hotbed of Islamic fundamentalism and supporter of some of the world’s most radical Islamic movements such as the Lebanese Hizballah. Iran’s mullahs are fully aware of the power of their oil. Its supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned in 2002: “If the West did not receive oil, their factories would grind to a halt. This will shake the world!” As the world’s demand for oil increases, Iran grows richer --Iran’s oil revenues have jumped 25 percent in 2005—and more than able to snub the U.S. and its allies in their efforts to prevent Tehran from developing nuclear weapons. ¶ The line between the barrel and the bomb is clear. It is oil wealth that enables dictatorial regimes to sustain themselves, resisting openness, progress and power sharing. Some semi-feudal royal families in the Gulf buy their legitimacy from the Muslim religious establishment. This establishment uses oil money to globally propagate hostility to the West, modernity, non-Muslims, and women. ¶ This trend is likely to continue. Both the International Energy Agency and the Energy Information Agency of the U.S. Department of Energy currently project a steady increase in world demand for oil through at least 2020. This means further enrichment of the oil-producing countries and continued access of terrorist groups to a viable financial network which allow then remain a lethal threat to the U.S. and its allies. ¶ Drying the swamp¶ There are many strategies proposed by counter-terrorism experts to obstruct terrorist financing. Many of them are effective and, indeed, some of the steps that have been taken since September 11, such as freezing bank accounts and improving the scrutiny over international monetary transfers, contributed to a reduction in Al-Qaeda's financial maneuverability. But the only way to deal with the problem strategically is to reduce the disposable income and wealth generation capacity of terrorist supporters. ¶ Hence, America's best weapon against terrorism is to decrease its dependency on foreign oil by increasing its fuel efficiency and introducing next-generation fuels. If the U.S. bought less oil, the global oil market would shrink and price per-barrel would decline. This would invalidate the social contract between the leaders and their people and stem the flow of resources to the religious establishment. It will likely increase popular pressure for political participation, modernity and reformed political and social institutions. ¶ Reducing demand for Middle East oil would force the petroleum-rich regimes to invest their funds domestically, seek ways to diversify their economies and rethink their support for America's enemies. Only then financial support for terrorism could radically diminish.

AT-Low Prices Bad (Russia)

Oil prices set to fall in the status quo- Libya production, harsh winter, and higher exports

Lior Cohen 5/13/14

The Street: Lior Cohen earned an MA in Economics at Tel Aviv University. After working for several years in a variety of economic related positions, which include economic consultant and chief economist “Three Reasons Oil Prices Will Fall” http://www.thestreet.com/story/12706026/1/three-reasons-oil-prices-will-fall.html

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The oil market has heated up the during the past several months as the price of oil remained above the $100 mark. It should cool down. Here are three reasons the price of oil should drop to the mid $90s.¶ 1. OPEC oil production could start to rise¶ According to the recent Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' monthly report, OPEC oil production during March dropped by 626 thousands of barrels a day mainly because of lower production in Libya, Angola, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Moreover, Libya has yet to reach its full oil production capacity, which stood on 1.6 million bbl/day back in 2010. The country's oil production is now only 243,000 of bbl/day. But analysts expect Libya's oil exports will pick up in the coming weeks.¶ In total, OPEC's daily production was 29.6 million, which was slightly lower than its 30 million bbl/day quota. Conversely, the oil production of non-OPEC countries more than offset the lower production volume in the past month, according to the latest monthly update by the International Energy Agency.¶ Based on the above, the expected rise in Libya's oil production and steady growth in non-OPEC oil production is likely to pressure the price of oil.¶ 2. Natural gas market slowly cools down¶ Due to the harsh winter conditions, the demand for natural gas strengthened. As a result, the price of natural gas reached high levels during the winter, up 35% during the first quarter from a year earlier. Because one of the purposes of oil is for heating, the rise in demand for natural gas also increases the demand for its alternative energy source -- crude oil.¶ The chart below shows the ratio between the price of oil and the price of natural gas during 2013-2014.¶ Source: Energy Information Administration¶ As you can see, the ratio between oil and natural gas tumbled down during February to around 16-17; this low level demonstrates how high the price of natural gas reached. During the summer this ratio tends to rise as the price of natural gas falls. In such a case, the natural gas market is likely to loosen, which will also reduce the pressure on the oil market.¶ The elevated prices of natural gas and oil benefited oil and gas producers such as Exxon Mobil (XOM_) and Chesapeake Energy (CHK_) during the first quarter. The companies are likely to improve their profit margin, because the price of oil was 4.4% higher year over year and the price of natural gas was more than 35% higher than the price in the first quarter of 2013.¶ The harsh winter conditions reduced the oil production during January 2014, according to the U.S Energy Information Administration estimates. But since early February, oil production has picked up, and as the weather gets clearer, the oil production is likely to further rise.¶ 3. High imports and production¶ According to the latest EIA weekly update, since March oil supply has improved by 2.6% mainly due to the 4% gain in oil imports and 1.4% increase in oil production. As a result, the total supply (comprising of imports and production) has reached 15.736 million barrels per day. Thus, the gap between the supply and demand for oil (refinery inputs) has widened in recent weeks, as indicated in the chart below.¶ Source: Energy Information Administration¶ These recent developments suggest the U.S oil market has loosened in the past several weeks. If this trend persists, it could further drag down the price of oil to reach the mid $90's.¶ Conclusion¶ The oil market is likely to further loosen in the coming weeks on account of stronger local production, reduced pressure from the natural gas market and potential rise in global production mainly from OPEC, which could pressure down global oil prices. Therefore, oil prices are also likely to slowly come down to the mid-$90s.

Russia’s economy is no longer dependent on oil- increases in manufacturing

RT 12/10/13 RT- citing Dmitry Medvedev “Russia pivots towards industry, not reliant on oil – Medvedev” http://rt.com/business/medvedev-oil-russia-industry-996/

There is more to the Russian economy besides oil and mineral exports, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said Tuesday. He also promised productivity will grow 50 percent in the next five years, which followed a severe bout of stagnation in industrial output.¶ Russia’s Prime Minister lauded state plans to boost industrial production, and refutes accusations the economy is running on petrodollars.¶ “There is a widespread belief that Russia’s only strength is oil and gas, that we live off of oil export revenues and produce nothing. Actually, this statement doesn’t reflect the real picture of our economy, which is based on manufacturing and where industrial production plays a very important role,” Medvedev said on his video blog Tuesday.¶ Oil prices, which have reached historic highs, are liking to fall as sharp supply increases from the Gulf of Mexico, the US, and South America are slated to send prices down in 2014. Russian oil output, the largest in the world, reached 10.61 million bpd (barrels per day) in November.¶ January’s WTI crude future was $98.54 per barrel and Brent Crude was $110.23 at the time of publication.¶ Oil and gas revenues account for more than half of Russia’s budget revenue, which makes the economy sensitive to price volatility. Russia has amended its budget to prepare for a dip in benchmark oil prices, planning scenarios for crude prices below $80, even $60 per barrel. Russia has signaled it is ready for prices below $95 per barrel.¶ The IEA says the US will overtake Russia as the biggest oil producer next year, citing the "shale revolution" that has reshaped the global energy market and threatens Russia’s budget. Some experts believe this will give Russia the push it needs to develop industry and shake its heavy oil commodity dependence.¶ The current gulf between consumption and productivity is dangerous, as Russia’s future generations can’t live off high oil prices in the long-term.¶ Boosting industry¶ Medvedev said in the next five years his government will prioritize increasing the number of factories and plants to modernize Russia’s innovation potential. By 2020 this should create and modernize 25 million industrial jobs.¶ Food, meat, milk, canned goods, construction, mining, metals, and auto industry are some of the top "break-through" industries that dominated domestic production in 2013.¶ In November Russia’s industrial production fell for the tenth consecutive month, according to data from Rosstat, the state statistics bureau. Industrial output hasn’t grown since the fourth quarter of 2012.¶

Turn-Low Prices Good - Russia

Turn- A drop in oil prices ends Russian expansion and avoids war

Zbigniew Mazurak 3/3/14

Defense and budget analyst, author of “In Defense of US Defense Spending” : “What Western powers should do in response to Russia’s aggression” http://www.conservativedailynews.com/2014/03/what-western-powers-should-do-in-response-to-russias-aggression/

The Russian economy is terribly dependent on raw minerals exports; 66% of the Kremlin’s revenue comes from these exports, while manufactured goods exports account for only about 10%. Moreover, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has already caused significant unrest at the Moscow stock exchange, whose main index has seen a 10% fall (and a 20% decline in the Russian currency’s value to the dollar) just today (as of 8:24AM ET, 18:24 Moscow time).¶ Moreover, Putin’s totally incompetent interference in the affairs of Gazprom, the Russian gas producing and exporting company, has driven it into a debt of $50 billion – equalling its turnover of one year.¶ This invasion, and Vladimir Putin’s entire buildup of the Russian military, would NOT have been possible absent the boon provided by high oil and gas prices (oil now stands at $105/barrel) and Russia’s stranglehold on their supplies to Europe. If that stranglehold is broken, and if these prices decline dramatically and soon, Putin will have no choice but to withdraw his troops, and his wannabe Evil Empire Redux will fall like a deck of cards.¶ Those who advocated the ridiculous policy of appeasement and unilateral disarmament that brought us into this mess in the first place now falsely claim that the only alternative to dialogue with Russia is war with that country. That is completely false.¶ No one wants war with Moscow. And since the Russian military is already more than strong enough to defeat the US military easily, it would be ill-advised.¶ But as stated above, Russia has one great glaring weakness – its economy – and as Sun Tzu wisely counseled, the right way to defeat your opponent is to strike his weaknesses, not his strengths.¶ Just as Ronald Reagan (who was vilified as a warmonger who would cause nuclear war) won the Cold War without firing a shot, the West, if it applies the right policies, can defeat Russia today, also without firing a shot, by pulling the economic lever. It absolutely can do so. The question is whether Western leaders will now have the intellectual courage to acknowledge the utter failure of their appeasement policy.

Status quo oil prices fuel Russian aggression- lower prices are key

Stan Green 4/3/14

Control The Gov- policy advocacy and think tank “High Gas Prices!” http://controlthegov.com/high-gas-prices/

The Russians are invading their neighbors and Obama is pretending that he doesn’t like it. Putin and Obama are accusing each other. Both of them are liars. Obama is probably the worst liar in history.¶ Obama’s lame energy policy causes high gas prices. Prices below $90 a barrel mean that Putin does not have money for an invasion. Obama is funding Russian aggression with high oil prices.¶ Disregard all of Obama’s lies. His true intentions are revealed by what he does with the price of oil. If he keeps it the same or raises it he supports Russian aggression.¶ If Obama were to stop blocking the Keystone pipeline, oil prices would be on the way down. If oil leases on public lands were available as in the past, oil prices would normalize.¶ Normal oil prices would create an economic boon for us and put a stop to many wars. Obama’s dismal job performance would get him fired anywhere. He is downgrading our defenses and has announced plans to give away the internet. The Net is not his to give away and those are our defenses.¶ The people need to fire Obama, and it needs to happen right away.¶ The people can intimidate Obama into resigning by applying more pressure than he can tolerate. Remember Richard Nixon?¶ The next time you fuel your vehicle or pay the electric bill, be sure to curse Obama’s soul for the gouge he just put on you and your family.¶ More on getting rid of Obama next time.

A drop in oil prices would show Russian weakness and oust Putin from power

Dmitry Travin 6/25/12

The Moscow Times“Only Low Oil Prices Will Oust Putin” http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/only-low-oil-prices-will-oust-putin/462567.html

The most common question these days among independent analysts is how long President Vladimir Putin can hold onto power.¶ The circumstances that led to the Soviet collapse in 1991 may provide some clues. First, the most intelligent, educated and energetic members of Soviet society had grown tired of the obtuse and stagnant leadership that offered no prospects for the future. They were sick of Soviet authority in the same way that a person could go crazy from being forced to wear an ugly and hole-ridden pair of shoes year after year, even while being told that they were the best shoes on Earth.¶ Second, a split occurred within the Soviet elite that thrust Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev to prominence. He might not have intended to break apart the Soviet Union, but his perestroika program was clearly intended to reorganize the structure that Vladimir Lenin had originally built.¶ Third, the economic crisis resulting from a sharp drop in oil prices in the second half of the 1980s turned a major segment of the population against the ruling regime. This opposition movement was far broader than the liberal, educated intelligentsia.¶ Today, the protests that began in December indicate that the active and educated segment of society is tired of the Putin regime. They understand that the economic prosperity of recent years was due not to Putin's genius but to high global oil prices. They also understand that the Russian economy could just as easily collapse if prices drop. Many people rightfully conclude that because Putin has done little to develop the economy since he came to power in 1999, it is unlikely he will do anything in the future.¶ As for a split within Putin's ruling elite, the situation now is more complicated. Soviet leaders saw that their own privileges, while large compared with those of Soviet citizens, still paled in comparison with the average standard of living achieved in Western consumer societies. Now, however, the members of Putin's ruling elite live like kings. Unlike the Soviet elite, today's elite can buy expensive real estate in the West and travel there at will. The Putin elites are far less tied to their own country than Soviet rulers were.¶ At the same time, Putin actually has few staunch supporters among the political elite. Those officials are loyal to the regime only to the extent that it allows them to get wealthy. But they will betray Putin the moment his political system shows serious signs of weakness. They will not oppose Putin while he is strong, but they will also not hesitate to trample him underfoot if his political fortunes shift.¶ What's more, many politicians, businessmen and cultural figures are ashamed of the way Putin has transformed Russia. They are tired of blushing when answering questions from their Western colleagues about rampant corruption or the personality cult surrounding Putin that increasingly resembles the cult around aging Soviet leaders.¶ The third contributing factor is the economic crisis. When oil prices fell drastically in 2009, Russia's gross domestic product dropped by 8 percent. Had the crisis continued at this pace for a few more years, it would have been disastrous for the Putin regime. The standard of living would have plummeted, and we would have probably seen the same level of discontent that we witnessed in the late 1980s.¶ But oil prices started to rise again in 2010, stabilizing the Russian economy as a whole. Today's oil prices translate into annual growth rates of 3 to 4 percent and enable Putin to provide the people with at least a small increase in their real incomes, which is enough to keep most Russians from joining the protest movement.¶ This is the main reason why the demonstrations of recent months have not reached a level that would cause the regime to collapse. There is a large segment of society that does not think about the future and is largely content with a bottle of beer, bread and butter and cheap television serials. Putin's main constituency among the masses is less concerned about freedom, human rights protections, free elections and civil society.¶ Although the country's intellectuals have openly turned their backs on Putin, the average Russian remains the last and best hope of the current regime. For his part, Putin cultivates the common people's support with patriotic speeches, an ongoing campaign against the United States, talk about saving the country from internal and external enemies and his harsh criticism of the democratic opposition.¶ But the state of the economy is the primary factor determining how long the Putin regime can endure. If oil prices remain high, the regime could survive for years, but if a serious global economic crisis hits, its chances of survival are negligible. If, at the peak of such a crisis, Putin's blue-collar electorate were to ask, "Where is our bread and butter?" the elites and intellectuals would not come to his rescue, as they once did for former President Boris Yeltsin.¶ If the intellectuals and a good portion of Putin's traditional constituency join forces to arise en masse against Putin, the political elites would either take a neutral position or, more likely, turn against Putin completely. If this ever happens, Putin would have no chance of remaining in power.

Renewables K/T Security

OMEGA is uniquely key to national security and air force

NASA No Date

“Offshore Membrane Enclosures for Growing Algae” http://www.nasa.gov/centers/ames/pdf/638200main_OMEGA_FactSheet_final.pdf

Offshore Membrane Enclosures for Growing Algae (OMEGA) is an innovative method to grow algae, clean wastewater, capture carbon dioxide and ultimately produce biofuel. Using treated sewage as a growth medium, OMEGA would not compete with agriculture for water, fertilizer or land.¶ NASA’s OMEGA system consists of large flexible plastic tubes, called photobioreactors. Floating in seawater, the photobioreactors contain freshwater algae growing in wastewater. These algae are among the fastest growing plants on Earth.¶ The algae use energy from the sun, nutrients from wastewater and carbon dioxide to make oil-rich biomass that can be converted into biofuels. In addition to biofuels, the algae can produce fertilizer and a variety of other useful products.¶ The OMEGA system was investigated by NASA as a way to introduce an alternative way to produce aviation fuels. Potential implications of replacing fossil fuels include addressing the release of greenhouse gases, ocean acidification, and national security.

AT- Military CP

Military research on biofuels diverts resources and threatens national security

John E. Gay 4/1/14

National Defense University Press: “Green Peace: Can Biofuels Accelerate Energy Security?” http://ndupress.ndu.edu/Media/News/NewsArticleView/tabid/7849/Article/8465/jfq-73-green-peace-can-biofuels-accelerate-energy-security.aspx

For the United States to achieve energy security, it must reduce its dependence on foreign oil. However, should the military—the branch of government responsible for national security—be responsible for investing its limited resources as a venture capitalist to jumpstart a biofuels industry and be forced to purchase fuels at 10 times the cost of readily available petroleum-based fuels? Not only does this not make good economic sense, but it also puts our national security at risk. Biofuels mandates divert scarce military resources away from critical programs such as weapons modernization, maintenance, training, and readiness. America’s military is the largest consumer of liquid fuels in the world, but it still only accounts for 3.6 percent of annual U.S. consumption. This low percentage is not enough to spark a biofuels industry and affect overall fuel prices.¶

AT-States CP

Secretary of the Interior can issue permits – avoids state coordination failure

Adam Vann 10/17/12

Congressional Research Service, Adam Vann - Legislative Attorney, “Wind Energy: Offshore Permitting” http://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R40175.pdf

Prior to enactment of EPAct in 2005, the Army Corp of Engineers (Corps) took the lead role in the federal offshore wind energy permitting process, claiming jurisdiction pursuant to Section 10 of the Rivers and Harbors Act (RHA),28 as amended by the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act (OCSLA).29 The Corps has jurisdiction under these laws to permit obstructions to navigation within the “navigable waters of the United States” and on the OCS.30 The Corps’ jurisdiction over potential offshore wind projects had never been made explicit, however.¶ Section 388 of EPAct sought to address some of the uncertainty related to federal jurisdiction over offshore wind energy development by amending the OCSLA to specifically establish legal authority for federal review and approval of various offshore energy-related projects. The provision amended the OCSLA by adding a new subsection that authorizes the Secretary of the Interior, in consultation with other federal agencies, to grant leases, easements, or rights-of-way on the OCS for certain activities—wind energy development among them—not authorized by other OCSLA provisions, the Deepwater Port Act, the Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Act, or “other applicable law.”31 A memorandum of understanding between the Department of the Interior and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) signed in April of 2009 confirmed the exclusive jurisdiction of the Secretary of the Interior, exercised through the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation, and Enforcement (BOEM),32 an agency within DOI, over “the production, transportation, or transmission of energy from non-hydrokinetic renewable energy projects on the OCS.”

AT: Ethanol

Food prices

Ethanol drives up food prices

Weise 2/14/11, Elizabeth is a reporter for the USA Today, “Ethanol pumping up food prices” http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/money/industries/food/2011-02-09-corn-low_N.htm

A combination of natural calamities and congressional mandates has come together to drive world food prices to levels that make some governments in developing nations nervous, because higher costs can mean political instability. The toll on American grocery carts thus far is low, but analysts say price increases are coming.¶ CHINA DROUGHT: China prepares for 'severe, long-lasting drought'¶ The immediate causes of the rise are clear: bad harvests due to drought in Russia, China and Argentina and floods in Australia, among other things. But a longer-term cause may come as a surprise:— 24% of the U.S. corn crop is now mandated to go to ethanol, taking slack out of the world food market and making price shocks more likely, agricultural economists say.¶ PRICES RISING: Prices starting to creep higher¶ Add lower-than-expected corn yields last year and, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture figures out Wednesday, U.S. reserves of field corn are at their lowest levels in 15 years. The demand for corn for ethanol is now at 4.9 billion bushels per year. Corn prices have almost doubled, from $3.49 a bushel in July to $6.10 in January. Corn futures, contracts to buy corn at a given price in the future, as of Wednesday were $6.90 a bushel.¶ INFLATION AHEAD?: Bernanke's not worried¶ "We're going to be going into next year's harvest with really no surplus inventory at all, so the size of next year's crop becomes critical," says Darrel Good, an agricultural economist at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign.¶ A threat to the poor¶ However, foreign production of corn and projected stocks this year are higher than in the past two years, buffering the global situation somewhat, says Heather Lutman, a corn analyst with USDA.¶ For the 1.2 billion people who make $1.25 or less a day and spend 50% to 80% of their income on food, price rises mean hunger and less money for education and health care, says Gawain Kripke of Oxfam America, an anti-poverty charity.¶ For Americans, there are "definitely indications that point to higher prices, but we've yet to see a major impact," says Ephraim Leibtag, a USDA food economist. Meat, dairy and eggs, primarily dependent on feed prices, are "less shielded from surges in commodity prices," he says. USDA is predicting rises in the food price index for 2011 of 3.5% to 4.5% for pork, 2.5% to 3.5% for beef, 2.5% to 3.5% for eggs and 4.5% to 5.5% for dairy.¶ But corn, because it's made into high-fructose corn syrup, our most commonly used sweetener, is in many other items Americans buy as well.¶ Companies likely to raise prices¶ Thus far it's been "kind of stealth," but consumers will see the effects soon, says Joseph Saluzzi, co-founder of Themis Trading, a brokerage firm in Chatham, N.J. Companies don't want to increase prices, so they've cut expenses and even made packages smaller, he says. But as earnings statements came out this quarter "a bunch of companies have said they're going to raise prices," he says.¶ The U.S. is the world's largest producer of field corn, at 13 billion bushels a year. Sweet corn, the kind we eat on the cob, is less than 1% of total corn grown.¶ Since 2005, more and more of the nation's field corn crop has gone to create ethanol. Fuel blenders are obliged under the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act to mix a certain amount of eligible biofuels into the gasoline they sell. The blenders receive a tax credit of 45 cents per gallon of ethanol.¶ "For corn-based biofuels such as ethanol, the current mandate (under EISA) is 12.6 billion gallons, which increases to 15 billion in 2015 and remains at that level," says Tom Capehart, a USDA biofuels expert.¶ At this year's level, 39% of U.S. field corn is used to produce the gasoline substitute. A third of that comes back into the food supply as distillers' grains, a by-product of ethanol production, which can be added to animal feed, bringing the total down to 24%.¶ Corn farmers dispute the connection between high prices and ethanol. More corn is being grown per acre "thanks to technology in the seed and practices on the farm," says Bart Schott, president of the National Corn Growers Association. Instead, he points at "speculation in commodity markets, corrupt foreign regimes, currency fluctuation, hoarding by other countries and, of course, the weather" for rising prices.

Wetlands

Ethanol trades off with food, causes food price rise and kills wetlands

Faber 4/2/13, Scott Faber is the Vice President of Governmental Affairs at the Environmental Working Group (EWG) and was a senior director for public policy for American Rivers, J.D. From Georgetown University Law Center “Corn Ethanol: Bad For Farmers, Consumers And The Environment” http://www.ewg.org/agmag/2013/02/corn-ethanol-bad-farmers-consumers-and-environment

By driving up the price of food and gas and causing costly engine damage, corn ethanol has been bad news for consumers.¶ And by driving up the price of food, corn ethanol is also costing all of us money – by increasing the cost of federal programs like food stamps and school lunches.¶ But corn ethanol has not just been a disaster for consumers, most farmers, and taxpayers; it’s also been a disaster for the environment – worse, in fact, than Canadian tar sands.¶ That’s according to the Swiss Federal Laboratories, which concluded that biofuels “often shift environmental burdens toward land-use related impacts.”¶ By dramatically raising the price of corn, the federal corn ethanol mandate has, in just the last four years, contributed to the conversion of 23 million acres from wetland and grassland – an area the size of Indiana – to cropland. In fact, thanks to the corn ethanol mandate, we have lost more than wetlands and grasslands in the last four years than in the previous 40.¶ By encouraging farmers to plow up wetlands and grasslands, the mandate is causing more carbon to be released into the atmosphere, consuming more water to irrigate crops, causing more fertilizer to wash off farm fields and destroying more habitat that supports wildlife – and millions of jobs.¶ What’s more, burning corn ethanol in gasoline releases more benzene, a known carcinogen, and other toxic air pollutants that have been linked to asthma, bronchitis and other respiratory ailments.¶ Thanks to new fuel efficiency standards, the rationale for the corn ethanol mandate created in 2005, and expanded in 2007, has evaporated.¶ So why is Congress continuing to force consumers to use a fuel that increases food and gas prices and is bad for the environment and public health?¶ Now is the time to reduce the use of corn ethanol in our gasoline.

Oceanic Dead Zones

Nitrogen fertilizer from increased corn ethanol production causes dead zones

Tennant 13/11/13, Michael, a freelance writer “Federal Ethanol Policy: Bad for the Planet, Good for Lobbyists” The New American http://www.thenewamerican.com/tech/environment/item/16932-federal-ethanol-policy-bad-for-the-planet-good-for-lobbyists

Another big problem caused by the ethanol law is the growth in the amount of nitrogen fertilizer being used. “Between 2005 and 2010, corn farmers increased their use of nitrogen fertilizer by more than one billion pounds,” reported the AP. “More recent data isn’t available from the Agriculture Department, but because of the huge increase in corn planting, even conservative projections by the AP suggest another billion-pound fertilizer increase on corn farms since then.”¶ With all this fertilizer being dumped in a relatively small portion of the country, its effects are particularly worrisome.¶ For one thing, nitrogen in drinking water is toxic to humans. Iowa's Des Moines Water Works faced such high levels of nitrates in its water sources this summer that it had to keep huge machines running constantly to clean the water, and it asked customers to reduce their water consumption. Minnesota’s water system is also finding itself “overwhelmed by the increase in production pressure to plant more crops,” Steve Morse, executive director of the Minnesota Environmental Partnership, told the AP.¶ The fertilizer runoff has deleterious effects downstream, too, wrote the AP:¶ The nitrates travel down rivers and into the Gulf of Mexico, where they boost the growth of enormous algae fields. When the algae die, the decomposition consumes oxygen, leaving behind a zone where aquatic life cannot survive.¶ This year, the dead zone covered 5,800 square miles of sea floor, about the size of Connecticut.¶

Warming

Ethanol use doubles greenhouse emissions

Naik 2/8/8, Gautam, Writer for the Wall Street Journal “Biofuels May Hinder Antiglobal-Warming Efforts” http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB120241324358751455?mod=todays_us_page_one&mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB120241324358751455.html%3Fmod%3Dtodays_us_page_one

Carbon Emissions Could Increase As Land-Use Shifts

A study published in the latest issue of Science finds that corn-based ethanol, a type of biofuel pushed heavily in the U.S., will nearly double the output of greenhouse-gas emissions instead of reducing them by about one-fifth by some estimates. A separate paper in Science concludes that clearing native habitats to grow crops for biofuel generally will lead to more carbon emissions.¶ The findings are the latest to take aim at biofuels, which have already been blamed for pushing up prices of corn and other food crops, as well as straining water supplies. The Energy Department expects U.S. ethanol production to reach about 7.5 billion gallons this year from 3.9 billion in 2005, encouraged by high prices and government support. The European Union has proposed that 10% of all fuel used in transportation should come from biofuels by 2020.

All their evidence doesn’t take into account land use shifts

Naik 2/8/8, Gautam, Writer for the Wall Street Journal “Biofuels May Hinder Antiglobal-Warming Efforts” http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB120241324358751455?mod=todays_us_page_one&mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB120241324358751455.html%3Fmod%3Dtodays_us_page_one

Land-use changes can have big and unintended consequences, such as food shortages and reduced biodiversity. For example, when forests or grasslands are converted for agricultural use, it leads to a large, quick release of carbon when the existing plant life is destroyed and the soil is tilled. Even if biofuels are grown on cropland previously used to grow food, farmers tend to then clear other forests and grasslands and grow the food elsewhere.¶ "Even if we're dramatically wrong, it's hard to get to a result that says you get a benefit over 50 years," said Timothy Searchinger, a researcher at Princeton University and a co-author of the paper on corn-based ethanol.¶ In the second study, researchers found that the effect of biofuels varied hugely, depending on where and how they were produced. For example, an increasing amount of land in Brazil is being used to grow sugarcane for ethanol. Converting the undeveloped land into sugarcane fields releases CO2. It would take 17 years for the positive effect of using sugarcane ethanol from those fields instead of petroleum-based fuels to overcome the CO2 farming the land put into the air. Draining and clearing peatlands in Malaysia and Indonesia to grow palm oil emits so much CO2 that palm biodiesel from those fields would have to be burned for more than 420 years to counteract it.¶ David Tilman, an ecologist at the University of Minnesota and co-author of the second paper, said the biofuel industry needs to seek more efficient sources for biofuels, such as various kinds of waste and nonfood crops such as switchgrass grown on degraded land. A researcher from the Nature Conservancy, an environmental advocacy group, was also a co-author.¶ Their study's funding came from the National Science Foundation and the University of Minnesota's Initiative on Renewable Energy and the Environment, according to Mr. Tilman. The other paper relied on funding from various indirect sources, including the Hewlett Foundation and the Agriculture Department.