The Future of Jobs
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professions showcase the continuing importance
of human interaction in the new economy through
roles in the care economy; in marketing, sales and
content production; as well as roles where a facility
or aptitude for understanding and being comfortable
working with different types of people from different
backgrounds is critical. Figure 23 displays the set
of roles which correspond to each professional
cluster, organized according to the scale of each
opportunity.
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Due to
constraints related to data
availability, the Care and Green Jobs cluster are not
currently covered by the following analysis.
In this report we present a unique extension of this
analysis which examines key learnings gleaned from
job transitions into those emerging clusters using
LinkedIn data gathered over the past five years.
For this analysis the LinkedIn data science team
analysed the job transitions of professionals who
moved into emerging jobs over the period of 2015 to
2020. The researchers analysed when professionals
transitioned into
any
new role as well as when they
transitioned to a wholly new occupation—here
called ‘pivots’. To understand the skill profile of
each occupation, analysts first identified a list of
the most representative skills associated with an
occupation, based on LinkedIn’s Skills Genome
Metric which calculates the ‘most representative’
skills across roles, using the TF-IDF method. To
examine the extent to which certain skills groups of
interest are associated
with a particular occupation,
a ‘skill penetration’ figure is calculated. This indicates
the share of individual skills associated with that
occupation that belong to a given skill group. To
understand the skill profile of each occupation,
analysts calculated the ‘skill penetration’ score for
each skill associated with an occupation. That is, the
‘skill penetration’ figure indicates the individuals from
that occupation who list the specific skill as a share
of all individuals employed in that occupation.
The aggregate skills similarity between two
occupations is then calculated as the cosine
similarity of those two occupations. In addition, for
each skill group, a skills gap measure is calculated
by expressing the skill penetration of the
destination job as a share of the same indicator in
the source job.
The evidence indicates that some emerging
job clusters present significant opportunities for
transitions into growing jobs (jobs
in increasing
demand) through effective career pivots. As
demonstrated in Figure24 A, among the transitions
into Data and AI professions, 50% of the shifts made
are from non-emerging roles. That figure is much
higher at 75% in Sales, 72% in content roles and
67% of Engineering roles. One could say that such
field are easier to break into, while those such as
Data and AI and People and Culture present more
challenges. These figures suggest that some level of
labour force reallocation is already underway.
By analysing these career pivots—instances
where professionals transition to wholly new
occupations—it becomes apparent that some of
these so-called ‘jobs of tomorrow’ present greater
opportunities for workers looking to fully switch their
job family and therefore
present more options to
reimagine one’s professional trajectory, while other
emerging professions remain more fully bounded.
As presented in Figure 24 C only 19% and 26%
of job transitions into Engineering and People and
Culture, respectively, come from outside the job
family in which those roles are today. In contrast,
72% of Data and AI bound transitions originate from
a different job family and 68% of transitions into
emerging jobs within Sales. As illustrated in Figure
25 emerging job clusters are typically staffed by
workers starting in a set of distinctive job families,
but the diversity of those source job families varies
by emerging profession. While emerging roles in
Product Development draw professionals from
a range of job families,
emerging roles in People
and Culture job cluster typically transition from the
Human Resources job family. The emerging Cloud
Computing job cluster is primarily populated by
professionals transitioning from IT and Engineering.
Finally, a number of jobs of tomorrow present
greater opportunities to pivot into professions with
a significant change in skills profile. In Figure24 B it
is possible to observe that transitions into People
and Culture and into Engineering have typically been
ones with high skills similarity while Marketing and
Content Development have been more permissive of
low skills similarity. Among the emerging professions
outlined in this report, transitions into Data and AI
allow for the largest variation in skills profile between
source and destination job title.
Figure 25 demonstrates that the newer emerging
professions such as Data and AI,
Product
Development and Cloud Computing present more
opportunities to break into these frontier fields, and
that, in fact, such transitions do not require a full
skills match between the source and destination
occupation. However, some job clusters of tomorrow
remain more ‘closed’ and tend to recruit staff with
a very specific skill set. It is not possible to observe
whether those limitations are necessary or simply
established practice. It may be the case that such
‘siloed’ professional clusters can be reinvigorated
by experimentation with relaxing the constraints for
entry into some emerging jobs alongside appropriate
reskilling and upskilling.