Neg for Venezuela Practice Debate

Venezuelan Politics Disad – Neg

Maduro Politics – Shell

Democratic Transition coming, but at crossroads. Any US involvement fails and empowers anti-US forces.

Spetalnick ‘13

Matt Spetalnick – White House correspondent who has covered news on four continents for Reuters, from Latin American coups and drug wars – Reuter’s – March 6^th, 2013 – “Despite new hopes, U.S. treads cautiously after death of Venezuela's Chavez” – http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/03/06/uk-venezuela-chavez-usa-idUKBRE92504920130306

Washington's challenge will be to figure out how far to go in seizing the opening to engage with Venezuelan leaders as well as its political opposition without giving the impression of U.S. meddling following the socialist president's death after a two-year battle with cancer. "We're not interested in having a confrontational relationship with Venezuela," a senior U.S. official told Reuters. "We're going to have to see how things evolve. It's a dynamic period." For Washington, a major test will be whether Venezuela follows its own constitution - which has been widely interpreted to require a special election to pick Chavez's successor - and if such a vote is conducted in a free and fair way in "accordance with hemispheric norms," the official said. Washington had accused Chavez and his allies of electoral abuses, such as intimidating foes and misusing state media during his 14-year rule. Chavez had created headaches for successive U.S. administrations with his strong anti-American rhetoric and his alliances with some of Washington's main foes, including Cuba and Iran. The question now is whether his leftist "revolution" and incendiary foreign policy can live on without his dominant personality at the helm. In a normally divided Washington, Chavez's death brought a rare moment of bipartisan agreement, with Republicans and Democrats alike seeing it as a chance to turn a page after a long period of strained U.S.-Venezuelan ties. "Hugo Chavez was a destabilizing force in Latin America, and an obstacle to progress in the region," said Mike Rogers, a Republican from Michigan and chairman of the U.S. House of Representatives intelligence committee. "I hope his death provides an opportunity for a new chapter in U.S.-Venezuelan relations." "Hopefully there will be a peaceful transition of power in Venezuela with real, meaningful democratic reforms," U.S. Senator Bill Nelson, a Democrat from Florida, said in a message on Twitter. OBAMA'S NOT-SO-SUBTLE MESSAGE Obama called it a "challenging time" for Venezuela and - in a measured but not-so-subtle message to Vice President Nicolas Maduro, Chavez's preferred successor - said the United States "remains committed to policies that promote democratic principles, the rule of law and respect for human rights." Taking the chill off the relationship between Washington and Caracas will not be easy. Recent U.S. efforts to improve long-dormant cooperation in areas like drug interdiction and regional security were favourably received at first in Caracas but ultimately failed to yield any real progress, the senior administration official said. And Washington was quick to reject Maduro's accusations, made just hours before his announcement of Chavez's death, that the United States had been engaged in a conspiracy against the president and Venezuela. "Their statements and actions today call into question their interest in having a functional and productive relationship with the United States," the official said. Chavez, who took on Cuban leader Fidel Castro's role as Latin America's most vocal critic of Washington, accused the United States of pursuing imperialist policies in the region as he used Venezuela's oil wealth to bolster leftist allies. As for whether Washington hoped to see Venezuela move away from its alliance with communist-ruled Cuba, the U.S. official said: "That's up to them to determine who their partners are." But the official added that Washington has not hesitated to make known its displeasure when "there were relationships with actors of concern." U.S. officials had contended that Chavez' rule eroded democratic freedoms in Venezuela and he went too far in concentrating power in his own hands. But any overt U.S. effort to intervene in Venezuela's politics now would almost certainly backfire, and possibly harm the anti-Chavez opposition. "It is a delicate time. I think the United States needs to be very patient and not become a factor internally in a way that ... could become negative," said Arturo Valenzuela, the U.S. State Department's top official for the Western Hemisphere from 2009 to 2011.

Maduro stands on crossroads – his perceived political success is key to check narco-generals. That causes internal meltdown.

Noriega ‘13

Roger F. Noriega was ambassador to the Organization of American States from 2001-2003 and assistant secretary of state from 2003-2005. He is a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute – “Venezuela elections may stir things up” ” – InterAmerica Security Watch – April 13th, 2013 – http://interamericansecuritywatch.com/venezuela-elections-may-stir-things-up/

As I noted after Chávez’s death last month, Venezuela is a country on the verge of a socioeconomic meltdown. Street crime, power outages, and shortages of food and consumer goods trouble the lives of millions of citizens. The government is running a dangerous fiscal deficit; mismanaged social programs are unsustainable. State revenues are down dramatically because the state-run oil company – packed with political cronies and plundered by Chávez to fund pet projects – is producing far less oil than it was 15 years ago. The regime has forfeited its legitimacy as senior officials are complicit with drug trafficking and terrorism. And the shameless intervention of Havana to manage the chavista succession has stirred anger among nationalists in Venezuela’s once-proud military. Confronting these challenges without Chávez at the top of the ticket, the regime has exploited every unfair advantage to engineer a convincing victory. Although the chavista leadership has closed ranks around Maduro, their confidence has to have been shaken by his buffoonish performance – claiming to chat with Chávez through a little bird circling over his head, for instance, or clumsily mimicking the antics of his charismatic predecessor. Even if the chavistas decide to steal an electoral victory for Maduro, after the election, the narcogenerals led by National Assembly president and ruling party chief Diosdado Cabello will second-guess Maduro as he tries to run the country. Cabello considers himself a much more able administrator, and he has a bitter distrust of the Cubans who appear to be micromanaging Maduro and his campaign.

If Venezuela slips into a narco-state, it turns each case advantage.

Noriega ‘12

Roger F. Noriega was ambassador to the Organization of American States from 2001-2003 and assistant secretary of state from 2003-2005. He is a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute – TESTIMONY¶ OF¶ AMBASSADOR ROGER F. NORIEGA¶ BEFORE THE¶ UNITED STATES¶ HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES¶ COMMITTEE ON¶ FOREIGN AFFAIRS¶ SUBCOMMITTEE ON¶ TERRORISM, NON¶ -¶ PROLIFERATION AND TRADE¶ “¶ Hezbollah’s Strategic Shift: A Global Terrorist Threat¶ ”¶ 1:30 PM, Wednesday,¶ March 20¶ , 2012 – http://www.aei.org/files/2013/03/20/-hezbollahs-strategic-shift-a-global-terrorist-threat_134945797264.pdf

Some may assess this¶ cooperation between¶ “¶ narco¶ s” and¶ terrorist¶ s¶ as a marriage¶ of convenience between different criminal elements or¶ just¶ another¶ modus operandi¶ of¶ powerful international drug syndicates¶ that can be tackled by l¶ aw enforcement¶ . Instead,¶ this criminal activity is the product¶ of a¶ conscious strategy of¶ rogue regimes in¶ Iran and¶ Venezuela to wage¶ asymmetrical warfare¶ against¶ U.S. security, interests and allies¶ close¶ to the homeland¶ .¶ As such, it requires a much more robust analysis and coordinated¶ response¶ –¶ from exposing terrorist g¶ roups working within Venezuela, identifying¶ narcoterrorist activities in Central America,¶ imposing¶ sanctions against state¶ -¶ ru¶ n entities¶ being used to conceal criminal transactions,¶ to dismantl¶ ing transnational money¶ laundering schemes.¶ Under bipartisan legislation passed by Congress in December, the Department of¶ State was given six months to provide you with an analysis of and strategy for dealing¶ with Iran’s activities in the Americas. Until now, the State Department has earned a¶ repu¶ tation within the U.S. government of minimizing this¶ threat¶ . This Subcommittee will¶ have to press the Department to conduct a thorough and rigorous review of the Iranian¶ and Hezbollah activities in our region and to expose the¶ extraordinary¶ role¶ that is¶ p¶ layed¶ by Venezue¶ la in this regard. U.S. diplomats will then have to inform our neighbors about¶ this problem and lay the groundwork for a coordinated strategy for dealing with this¶ phenomenon in our Hemisphere.¶ Mr. Chairman, I fear that these narco¶ terrorist activities will exact an increasingly terrible price from our neighbors and our nation¶ until our national security establishment recognizes the nature of the threat and fashions an effective response.

Link-Uniqueness backlines

( ) Maduro narrowly holding-off internal military challenges now –fidelity to Chavez’s anti-US cause will be key.

Metzker ‘13

(Internally quoting Michael Shifter, Adjunct Prof @ Gtown, member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and president of the Inter-American Dialogue. Jared Metzker – IPS Reporter, Washington DC - Inter Press Service – June 17, 2013 – lexis)

The new president's waffling may be a reflection of his tenuous grip on power. By many accounts, Maduro lacks the political prowess and rabble-rousing charm of Chavez, who enjoyed military backing as well as fervent support from the lower classes.¶ In addition to a strong anti-Chavista opposition that openly challenges the legitimacy of his narrowly won election, Maduro has had to deal with a split within Chavez's own former political base.¶ Shifter pointed out that among the military, which was once a source of significant strength for Chavez, more support is given to Diosdado Cabello, currently head of Venezuela's parliament and whose supporters believe he was the rightful heir to the presidency.¶ Maduro's legitimacy stems largely from his perceived ideological fidelity, the reason for his selection by Chavez to lead in the first place. Shifter said this leads him to "emulate" his predecessor and makes rapprochement with the United States less probable.

A-to Kerry meeting = non-unique

( ) Kerry meeting doesn’t non-unique the disad – it was a incredibly preliminary step.

Metzker ‘13

(Internally quoting Michael Shifter, Adjunct Prof @ Gtown, member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and president of the Inter-American Dialogue. Jared Metzker – IPS Reporter, Washington DC - Inter Press Service – June 17, 2013 – lexis)

Nonetheless, major actions remain to be taken if normalisation is to even begin, such as the exchange of ambassadors and official U.S. recognition of the Maduro government. Shifter (who regards the Kerry-Jaua meeting as "a small step") was not optimistic that these larger requirements will be completed in the short term.¶ "I don't think Washington is going to push hard to send an ambassador to Caracas," he said. "It will probably take more time to observe the new government and see where it is going."

A-to “US engaging now”

( ) US moving cautiously now

Spetalnick ‘13

Matt Spetalnick – White House correspondent who has covered news on four continents for Reuters, from Latin American coups and drug wars – Reuter’s – March 6^th, 2013 – “Despite new hopes, U.S. treads cautiously after death of Venezuela's Chavez” – http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/03/06/uk-venezuela-chavez-usa-idUKBRE92504920130306

While the death of Venezuela's stridently anti-American President Hugo Chavez on Tuesday raised hopes in Washington for better U.S.-Venezuela relations, the Obama administration reacted cautiously as it weighed the prospects for a diplomatic thaw. President Barack Obama quickly reached out to Venezuelans, expressing an interest in a "constructive relationship" in the post-Chavez era. But analysts said it would be hard to make tangible progress when deep political uncertainty risks destabilizing the South American oil-producing nation. Washington's challenge will be to figure out how far to go in seizing the opening to engage with Venezuelan leaders as well as its political opposition without giving the impression of U.S. meddling following the socialist president's death after a two-year battle with cancer. "We're not interested in having a confrontational relationship with Venezuela," a senior U.S. official told Reuters. "We're going to have to see how things evolve. It's a dynamic period."