Māris kļaviņŠ, azamat azizov, JĀnis zaļoksnis environment, pollution, development: the case of uzbekistan

Figure 12.4. 
Forest 
gutted by fire (summer 
of 2009, Greece)
In 1972, an interpretation 
of the nature of as well as 
limits to human develop‑
ment and, what is more 
important, modelling 
the consequences of 
exceeding these limits 
and guidelines for action 
were offered by Dennis 
Meadows, Donnella H. 
Meadows and Jørgen 
Randers, authors of the 
book Limits to Growth. 
The character of human 
economic development 
and the approach 
to the solutions of 
environmental and social 
problems confirm that 
the offered prognoses 
and models are correct 
and that it is necessary to 
change the character of 
development. 

---

12. Sustainable Development
 287
inequality increases mortality. People who have become richer de-
mand  more  goods,  more  energy  and  cleaner  air.  Poor  people  fight 
for clean water, agricultural land and firewood. Some techno lo gies 
increase  pollution  flow,  others  decrease  it.  The  reserves  of  non-
renewable and some renewable resources are running short, while the 
remaining reserves are used more intensively and more efficiently.
The modelling of the nature of human development (Figure 12.5) 
demonstrates that, with the existing trends of development, even 
with sustained technological progress and expanded accessibility of 
raw materials and resources, an overshoot of limits to growth and 
catastrophic  drop  in  welfare  can  occur  already  in  this  century.  A 
possible consequence of this is decreased industrial production and 
food availability, as well as a decrease in the number of population.
1900 
2000  
2100
1900 
2000   
2100
Life span
Consumer goods per capita
Services per capita
Food per capita
Resources
Industrial output
Population
Pollution
Food
Over the last century, modern society has witnessed a rapid 
human population growth and has made remarkable achievements 
in the technological and social spheres: from the steam engine to 
democracy, to the computer and corporations. The achievements 
have enabled economy to overstep the visible physical and material 
limits and sustain continuous growth. This is especially true 
about the last decades, when the full-scale industrial culture was 
associated with the development of consumer society and implanted 
in human minds as an idea of unceasing growth. To most people this 
The number of human 
population, the volume 
of the use of resources 
and the volume of con‑
sumption in developed 
countries continue to 
grow like it was in the 
20
th
 century, until the 
growth rate is decreased 
by the availability of non‑
renewable resources and 
their rising price. Even‑
tually, this leads to the 
decrease in production 
volumes and allocation of 
investments to support 
resource flows, whereas 
the decreased availability 
of investments in other 
sectors of economy 
leads to the decrease in 
industrial production and 
services. As the volume 
of industrial and food 
production diminishes, 
the availability of health 
services shrinks, and, 
as the environmental 
pollution increases, the 
life span falls into decline.