Māris kļaviņŠ, azamat azizov, JĀnis zaļoksnis environment, pollution, development: the case of uzbekistan

Figure 5.11. 
Modelled 
mean air temperature 
on the Earth

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86 
ENVIRONMENT, POLLUTION, DEVELOPMENT:  THE CASE OF UZBEKISTAN
Earth  (Figure 5.12).  Along  with  the  increase  in  temperature,  the 
moisture concentration and hence rainfall will also increase. 
Precipitation will not be regular, and there will be a risk of drought 
periods in many regions of the Earth. Rainfall changes can affect the 
Earth’s processes, for example, heavy precipitation in polar regions 
may affect the stability of glaciers and ocean currents.
The mean air temperature on the Earth is modelled for the 
periods between 2020 and 2029 and between 2090 and 2099 vis-
à-vis  the  temperature  in  the  period  between  1980  and  1999, 
depending on the potential society development and climate change 
scenarios: B1; A1B; A2 (from top to bottom). The figure shows how 
the air temperature on the Earth can change depending on the 
society development scenario.
Both rainfall changes and global warming affect the global sea 
level. It hardly needs saying that, as the Earth’s temperature rises, 
the ice sheets of the polar region begin to melt, and it turns out 
that the permafrost boundary is not permanent at all. This melting 
causes the water level in oceans to rise. The climate change models 
project that, until 2100, the water level in seas and oceans will have 
risen by 0.09 to 0.88 metres (Figure 5.13).
This figure shows the actual and possible changes in the water 
level in seas and oceans in the period between 2000 and 2100.
The mean water temperature in the oceans and seas will also 
increase, which means that the melting of glaciers and ice sheets 
and the rise of the sea and ocean levels will continue for hundreds of 
Figure 5.12. 
Projected 
rainfall changes 
Mean changes in  
(a) precipitation 
(mm day
–1
), (b) soil 
moisture content (%), 
(c) runoff (mm day
–1
) 
and (d) evaporation 
(mm day
–1
). Changes 
are annual means for 
the A1B scenario for the 
period 2080 to 2099 
relative to 1980 to 1999. 
Soil moisture and runoff 
changes are shown 
at land points with 
valid data from at least 
10 models.

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5. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS
 87
years after the stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations. With 
that, the inhabitable dry land areas will decrease. With the melting of 
polar ice, large amounts of freshwater will flow into the oceans and 
seas, affecting the marine fauna, ocean currents and thermal balance.
Estimation 
Observations  
Prognosis
500
400
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
1800 
1850 
1900 
1950 
2000 
2050 
2100
Sea level changes (mm)
It is worth noting that climate change cannot be projected 
accurately because there is also a possibility that these processes 
occur faster, by leaps, causing global cataclysms.