Māris kļaviņŠ, azamat azizov, JĀnis zaļoksnis environment, pollution, development: the case of uzbekistan

Figure 5.10. 
Average 
monthly temperature 
rise in Rīga  
(1851-2008 I-XII) 

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5. GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL PROBLEMS
 85
temperature, we need to forecast the gas emission amounts, which, 
in turn, depend on the lifestyle of humans. The United Nations 
Inter govern ment al Panel on Climate Change has developed several 
alternative models for the prospective development of society and 
climate change:
 
Š
Scenario A1 (‘zero’ growth). Greenhouse gas concentration in 
the atmosphere remains at the level of 2000; there is no eco-
no mic and population growth, and climate change is driven 
by the climate system inertia only.
 
Š
Scenario B1 (sustainable development). Natural growth con-
tinues until the middle of the 21
st
 century, then the population 
declines; the economic development continues.
 
Š
Scenario  A2  (‘business  as  usual’).  This  scenario  describes  a 
diffe rent iated world, in which each nation relies on its own 
powers and resources; the population is constantly growing; 
economic development is regionally-oriented.
 
Š
Scenario  A1B  (technological  progress).  This  scenario  de-
scri bes a world of rapid economic development, population 
growth and technological progress that allows to reduce the 
con sumption of material resources.
The climate change future scenarios predict that the air tem pe-
ra ture will rise by 1-8 degrees on average, and the warming rate is 
pro jected to be higher than it was in the 20
th
 century (Figure 5.11). 
Global  warming  will  definitely  affect  the  average  rainfall  on  the 
2020–2029
2090–2099
0  0.5  1  1.5  2  2.5  3  3.5  4  4.5  5  5.5  6  6.5  7  7.5 (˚C)