Māris kļaviņŠ, azamat azizov, JĀnis zaļoksnis environment, pollution, development: the case of uzbekistan

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12. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
 12.1. 
 Limits to growth
 12.1.1.  Nature of growth and social development
The development of humanity in the 20
th
 century is characterised 
by an exponential growth of human population, production and 
consumption as well as globalisation of numerous processes. 
Certainly, not everything grows at the same rate; for example, the 
world oil consumption rate has been slightly decreasing, while that 
of  natural  gas  –  increasing.  The  nature  of  selected  characteristic 
changes in the development of humanity is presented in Figure 12.1, 
which clearly shows that the rates of change are different but the 
common trend – growth – persists.
The world human population exponential growth started with 
the Industrial Revolution. The amount of the world industrial pro-
duc tion (as an aggregate of the gross national product) demonstrates 
the trends of exponential growth, even if we disregard the changes 
created by the fluctuations in the world oil price and the economic 
crisis. The amounts of pollutant emissions are also growing, and 
global climate change is the consequence of rising concentration of 
CO
2
 in the atmo sphere.
Social development has often been viewed as an achievement. 
Many communities and peoples, rich and poor, are seeking oppor-
tu nities for the expansion of their activities to solve vital problems. 
In the developed part of the world, the necessity of economic 
growth  is  justified  by  the  need  to  create  new  jobs  and  provide 
social security and technical achievements. In developing countries, 
economic growth appears to be the only way out of poverty. Unless 
a different solution for world’s problems is found, people will look 
upon development as the main road to a happy future and will 
do everything to promote growth. Such is the psychological and 
material motivation for growth.
Obviously, growth can solve some problems; unfortunately, it 
also causes new ones. This is due to the growth and development 
limitations.  The  Earth  has  its  limits.  Any  physical  growth,  also 
population growth, rising numbers of automobiles and buildings, 

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280 
ENVIRONMENT, POLLUTION, DEVELOPMENT:  THE CASE OF UZBEKISTAN
increase in pollution still continues. However, human birth rate, 
number of cars or buildings and pollution levels are far from the 
most important limits to growth. The truly vital limits are related to 
the flows of energy and materials required to sustain people, make 
cars and construct buildings.
Society  and  economy  depend  on  constant  flows  of  air,  water, 
food, raw materials and organic fuel, which come from the Earth. 
However, these flows create the flows of pollution and waste. Limits 
to growth in fact are limits of global resources and our planet’s 
limited capacity to absorb waste and pollution.
A range of human activities, from the use of mineral fertilisers 
to urban development, are growing exponentially and can be 
represented graphically (Figure 12.1).
 Population (billions)
Population
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1750  1800 
1850 
1900 
1950 
2000
1750  1800 
1850 
1900 
1950 
2000
1750  1800 
1850 
1900 
1950 
2000
1750  1800 
1850 
1900 
1950 
2000
1750  1800 
1850 
1900 
1950 
2000
Population (millions)
Tons (millions)
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1750  1800 
1850 
1900 
1950 
2000
Urban population
km
3
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1750  1800 
1850 
1900 
1950 
2000
Water consumption
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
1750  1800 
1850 
1900 
1950 
2000
Consumption of fertilisers
Year
Year
CO
2
 
concentration 
in the atmosphere
GDP
CO
2
 
oncentration, ppm
 
400
350
300
250
45
30
15
0
River dams
Dams (thou
sands)
28
24
20
16
12
8
4
0
Paper consumption
T
ons (millions)
250
200
150
100
50
0
1990 USD (1
0
12
)