Microsoft Word Report 11 02 Wave Power final ex appendix doc

The obvious question is if and when will wave power will become 
commercial as well as able to supply electricity in substantial 
quantities?
To become commercial in a technical sense the technology needs to be 
proven, i.e. survivability, availability, O&M strategies, production etc must be 
verified. One measure of this is when wave power plant developers can give 
warranties on these properties (as well as having the financial resources to 
back them up which may be a bigger issue). 
To become commercial in an economic sense the wave power plants must be 
able to produce electricity at a price acceptable to the market. An obvious 
benchmark in this case is offshore wind power whose cost of electricity is 
around SEK 1,5 per kWh
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(including a 12% rate of return). If wave power 
cannot compete with offshore wind power it is difficult in the long run to see 
any future for wave power.
There have been various attempts to predict development and learning curves 
for wave power. An example of a best-case scenario can be seen on the 
following page where economic competitiveness (with offshore wind power) 
could be reached somewhere between 2020 and 2030.
However it must be stressed that this and similar scenarios are highly 
speculative or even idealized. It would involve very large investments even 
before 2020 with technology that is not yet proven or even tested to any 
degree in 2010.
Furthermore, the heterogeneous nature of the proposed wave power concepts 
raises the question to which extent a learning curve is valid for the sector as a 
whole. Looking at two of the most developed concepts, Pelamis and Oyster, it 
is difficult to see synergies between their respective developments. It may be 
that there will be individual learning curves for at least categories of wave 
energy concepts.
30
Ernst & Young ”Cost of and financial support of offshore wind” 2009, report for 
Department of Energy and Climate Change and available at 
www.decc.gov.uk

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Figure 7.1 Development scenarios from UKERC and ETI
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.
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UK Energy Research Centre and Energy Technologies Institute “Marine Energy 
Technology Roadmap” 2010 
www.eti.co.uk

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Appendix 1