object to perform computation by dividing the total energy (the average energy of each atom or particle times the
number of such particles) by Planck's constant.
Lloyd shows how the potential computing capacity of a kilogram of matter equals pi times energy divided by
Planck's constant. Since the energy is such a large number and Planck's constant is so small, this equation generates an
extremely large number: about 5
°
10
50
operations per second.
59
If we relate that figure to the most conservative estimate of human brain capacity (10
19
cps and 10
10
humans), it
represents the equivalent of about five billion trillion human civilizations.
60
If we use the figure of 10
16
cps that I
believe will be sufficient for functional emulation of human intelligence, the ultimate laptop would function at the
equivalent brain power of five trillion trillion human civilizations.
61
Such a laptop could perform the equivalent of all
human thought over the last ten thousand years (that is, ten billion human brains operating for ten thousand years) in
one ten-thousandth of a nanosecond.
62
Again, a few caveats are in order. Converting all of the mass of our 2.2-pound laptop into energy is essentially
what happens in a thermonuclear explosion. Of course, we don't want the laptop to explode but to stay within its one-
liter dimension. So this will
require some careful packaging, to say the least. By analyzing the maximum entropy
(degrees of freedom represented by the state of all the particles) in such a device, Lloyd shows that such a computer
would have a theoretical memory capacity of 10
31
bits. It's difficult to imagine technologies that would go all the way
in achieving these limits. But we can readily envision technologies that come reasonably close to doing so. As the
University of Oklahoma project shows, we already demonstrated the ability to store at least
fifty bits of information
per atom (although only on a small number of atoms, so far). Storing 10
27
bits of memory in the 10
25
atoms in a
kilogram of matter should therefore be eventually achievable.
But because many properties of each atom could be exploited to store information—such as the precise position,
spin, and quantum state of all of its particles—we can probably do somewhat better than 10
27
bits. Neuroscientist
Anders Sandberg estimates the potential storage capacity of a hydrogen atom at about four million bits. These
densities have not yet been demonstrated, however, so we'll use the more conservative estimate.
63
As discussed above,
10
42
calculations per second could be achieved without producing significant heat. By fully deploying reversible
computing
techniques, using designs that generate low levels of errors, and allowing for reasonable amounts of energy
dissipation, we should end up somewhere between 10
42
and 10
50
calculations per second.
The design terrain between these two limits is complex. Examining the technical issues that arise as we advance
from 10
42
to 10
50
is beyond the scope of this chapter. We should keep in mind, however, that the way this will play out
is not by starting with the ultimate limit of 10
50
and working backward based on various practical considerations.
Rather, technology will continue to ramp up, always using its latest prowess to progress to the next level. So once we
get to a civilization with 10
42
cps (for every 2.2 pounds), the scientists and engineers
of that day will use their
essentially vast nonbiological intelligence to figure out how to get 10
43
, then 10
44
, and so on. My expectation is that we
will get very close to the ultimate limits.
Even at 10
42
cps, a 2.2-pound "ultimate portable computer" would be able to perform the equivalent of all human
thought over the last ten thousand years (assumed at ten billion human brains for ten thousand years) in ten
microseconds.
64
If we examine the "Exponential Growth of Computing" chart (p. 70), we see that this amount of
computing is estimated to be available for one thousand dollars by 2080.
A more conservative but compelling design for a massively parallel, reversible computer is Eric Drexler's patented
nanocomputer design, which is entirely mechanical.
65
Computations are performed
by manipulating nanoscale rods,
which are effectively spring-loaded. After each calculation, the rods containing intermediate values return to their
original positions, thereby implementing the reverse computation. The device has a trillion (10
12
) processors and
provides an overall rate of 10
21
cps, enough to simulate one hundred thousand human brains in a cubic centimeter.
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