Microsoft Word Kurzweil, Ray The Singularity Is Near doc

 
They're not full immersion yet. 
M
OLLY 
2004:
 
That's true. We can see him, but I'm not sure he notices us. But when we get to the point when his games 
are full immersion, we'll never see him. 
G
EORGE 
2048:
 
I can see your concern if you're thinking in terms of the thin virtual worlds of 2004, but it's not a 
problem with our 2048 virtual worlds. They're so much more compelling than the real world. 
M
OLLY 
2004:
 
Yeah, how would you know since you've never been in real reality? 
G
EORGE 
2048:
 
I hear about it quite a bit. Anyway, we can simulate it. 
M
OLLY 
2104:
 
Well, I can have a real body any time I want, really not a big deal. I have to say it's rather liberating to 
not be dependent on a particular body, let alone a biological one. Can you imagine, being all tied up with its 
endless limitations and burdens? 
M
OLLY 
2004:
 
Yes, I can see where you're coming from. 

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. . . on Human Longevity 
It is one of the most remarkable things that in all of the biological sciences there is no clue as to the necessity 
of death. If you say we want to make perpetual motion, we have discovered enough laws as we studied 
physics to see that it is either absolutely impossible or else the laws are wrong. But there is nothing in biology 
yet found that indicates the inevitability of death. This suggests to me that it is not at all inevitable and that it 
is only a matter of time before the biologists discover what it is that is causing us the trouble and that this 
terrible universal disease or temporariness of the human's body will be cured. 
—R
ICHARD 
F
EYNMAN
Never give in, never give in, never, never, never, never—in nothing, great or small, large or petty—never 
give in. 
—W
INSTON 
C
HURCHILL
Immortality first! Everything else can wait. 
—C
ORWYN 
P
RATER
Involuntary death is a cornerstone of biological evolution, but that fact does not make it a good thing. 
—M
ICHAEL 
A
NISSIMOV
Suppose you're a scientist 200 years ago who has figured out how to drastically lower infant mortality with 
better hygiene. You give a talk on this, and someone stands up in back and says, "hang on, if we do that we're 
going to have a population explosion!" If you reply, "No, everything will be fine because we'll all wear these 
absurd rubber things when we have sex," nobody would have taken you seriously. Yet that's just what 
happened—barrier contraception was widely adopted [around the time that infant mortality dropped]. 
—A
UBREY DE 
G
REY
,
GERONTOLOGIST
We have a duty to die. 
—D
ICK 
L
AMM
,
FORMER 
G
OVERNOR OF 
C
OLORADO
Some of us think this is rather a pity. 
—B
ERTRAND 
R
USSEL
,
1955,
COMMENTING ON THE STATISTIC THAT ABOUT ONE HUNDRED 
THOUSAND PEOPLE DIE OF AGE
-
RELATED CAUSES EVERY DAY
38 
Evolution, the process that produced humanity, possesses only one goal: create gene machines maximally 
capable of producing copies of themselves. In retrospect, this is the only way complex structures such as life 
could possibly arise in an unintelligent universe. But this goal often comes into conflict with human interests, 
causing death, suffering, and short life spans. The past progress of humanity has been a history of shattering 
evolutionary constraints. 
—M
ICHAEL 
A
NISSIMOV

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Most of the readers of this book are likely to be around to experience the Singularity. As we reviewed in the previous 
chapter, accelerating progress in biotechnology will enable us to reprogram our genes and metabolic processes to turn 
off disease and aging processes. This progress will include rapid advances in genomics (influencing genes), 
proteomics (understanding and influencing the role of proteins), gene therapy (suppressing gene expression with such 
technologies as RNA interference and inserting new genes into the nucleus), rational drug design (formulating drugs 
that target precise changes in disease and aging processes), and therapeutic cloning of rejuvenated (telomere-extended 
and DNA-corrected) versions of our own cells, tissues, and organs, and related developments. 
Biotechnology will extend biology and correct its obvious flaws. The overlapping revolution of nanotechnology 
will enable us to expand beyond the severe limitations of biology. As Terry Grossman and I articulated in Fantastic 
Voyage: Live Long Enough to Live Forever, we are rapidly gaining the knowledge and the tools to indefinitely 
maintain and extend the "house" each of us calls his body and brain. Unfortunately the vast majority of our baby-
boomer peers are unaware of the fact that they do not have to suffer and die in the "normal" course of life, as prior 
generations have done—if they take aggressive action, action that goes beyond the usual notion of a basically healthy 
lifestyle (see "Resources and Contact Information," p. 489). 
Historically, the only means for humans to outlive a limited biological life span has been to pass on values, 
beliefs, and knowledge to future generations. We are now approaching a paradigm shift in the means we will have 
available to preserve the patterns underlying our existence. Human life expectancy is itself growing steadily and will 
accelerate rapidly, now that we are in the early stages of reverse engineering the information processes underlying life 
and disease. Robert Freitas estimates that eliminating a specific list comprising 50 percent of medically preventable 
conditions would extend human life expectancy to over 150 years.
39
By preventing 90 percent of medical problems, 
life expectancy grows to over five hundred years. At 99 percent, we'd be over one thousand years. We can expect that 
the full realization of the biotechnology and nanotechnology revolutions will enable us to eliminate virtually all 
medical causes of death. As we move toward a nonbiological existence, we will gain the means of "backing ourselves 
up" (storing the key patterns underlying our knowledge, skills, and personality), thereby eliminating most causes of 
death as we know it.