Microsoft Word apsa paper VII jen doc

BITs and PTAs in Force Between Developed and Developing Countries

Download 133,37 Kb.

Pdf ko'rish

bet	7/8
Sana	30.12.2021
Hajmi	133,37 Kb.
	#93845

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Bog'liq
Tobin and Busch

BITs and PTAs in Force Between Developed and Developing Countries

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

196

197

198

199

200

Treaties

in Force Worldw

ide

BITs in Force

PTAs in Force

Figure 1

1

Predicted Probability of PTA Formation

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

BITs with Developed Countries

Pr

obab

ili

ty

Figure 2

Table 1

Equations (1) and (2) by Rare Events Logistic Regression

DV: PTA

(1)

(2)

(3)

BIT-Dyad

0.318

0.430**

1.938***

(0.280)

(0.183)

(0.224)

BITs-SUM

-0.027

0.071*

(0.044)

(0.043)

BITs-SUM-Square

-0.006***

(0.002)

BIT-Dyad* BITs-SUM

-0.199***

(0.029)

BIT-Dyad* BITs-SUM-Square

.004***

.001

TRADE

0.104

0.115

(0.241)

(0.254)

(0.234)

DISTANCE

-0.267***

-0.268***

-0.293***

(0.066)

(0.067)

(0.071)

SKILL

0.005

0.004

(0.004)

INCOME

-0.000***

(0.000)

ALLIANCE

0.749

0.760

0.828*

(0.531)

(0.505)

(0.441)

WTO

0.591

0.661

0.586

(0.636)

(0.663)

(0.648)

GDP

0.038

0.039

0.048

(0.061)

(0.060)

(0.057)

POLITY

-0.038

-0.034

-0.027

(0.051)

(0.052)

(0.051)

POPULATION

0.325*

0.342*

0.367*

(0.193)

(0.201)

AFRICA

-2.063*

-2.175*

-2.065*

(1.174)

(1.204)

(1.213)

APAC

-0.612

-0.654

-0.599

(0.985)

(0.955)

(0.956)

LAC

-0.193

-0.315

-0.201

(0.853)

(0.805)

(0.774)

Constant

-4.164

-4.267

-4.746

(3.689)

(3.650)

(3.817)

Observations

127578

Pseudo R^2

0.3382

0.3389

0.3573

Robust standard errors in parentheses

* significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1%

Table 2

Influence of BITs on Predicted Probability of PTA Formation

BIT Regime

Predicted Probabil-

ity of Dyad Form-

ing a BIT

No Dyadic BIT

0.10

Dyadic BIT, but no other BITs

0.44

Dyadic BIT and 7 other BITs

0.21

Estimates based on Table 1, Column (3), with all other variables

held at their means

Table 3

Predicted Probability of PTA Formation with and without a BIT

for Selected Countries

Probability with

Dyadic BIT

Probability Without

Dyadic BIT

BITS as of

2004

Colombia

0.56746

0.15789

Chad

0.15742

0.05005

Thailand

0.24322

0.17465

Bangladesh 0.2113

0.26954

Estimates based on Table 1, Column (3). All variables held at 2004 levels for all

country-specific variables and 2004 averages across dyads for dyadic variables

Table 4

Robustness Checks

(4)

(5)

(6)

BIT-Dyad 2.018***

1.461***

1.845***

(0.221)

(0.420)

(0.236)

BITs-SUM 0.083*

0.022

0.065

(0.043)

(0.065)

(0.043)

BITs-SUM-Square -0.003**

-0.002*

-0.004***

(0.001)

BIT-Dyad* BITs-SUM

-0.195***

-0.149***

-0.178***

(0.030)

(0.049)

(0.029)

DISTANCE -0.277***

-0.194**

-0.342***

(0.069)

(0.077)

(0.069)

INCOME -0.000***

-0.000**

-0.000***

(0.000)

ALLIANCE 0.911

0.476

0.654*

(0.585)

(0.659)

(0.382)

POPULATION 0.362*

0.459**

0.343*

(0.189)

(0.229)

(0.193)

AFRICA -1.869

-2.290*

-1.601

(1.195)

(1.225)

(1.161)

APAC -0.539

-2.569***

-0.239

(0.990)

(0.840)

(0.927)

LAC -0.064

-0.564

0.223

(0.877)

(0.840)

(0.772)

(0.756)

(2.151)

(0.901)

TRADE

0.091**

0.137

(0.040)

(0.244)

SKILL

-0.010

0.004

(0.006)

(0.003)

WTO

1.265

0.715

(0.861)

(0.567)

GDP

0.079**

0.065

(0.036)

(0.050)

POLITY

-0.000

-0.009

(0.044)

(0.040)

PTA-SUM

1.058***

(0.095)

PTA-SUM-Square

-0.059***

(0.006)

Constant -4.166

-11.398**

-4.439

(3.360)

(4.768)

(3.754)

Observations 121878

120845

116410

Pseudo R^2

0.3483

0.3122

0.4370

Robust standard errors in parentheses

* significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1%

5

Appendix A

Summary Statistics

Variable

Obs

Mean

Std.

Dev.

Min Max

PTA

130548

0.009435

0.096675

BIT-Dyad

130548

0.069308

0.253978

BITs-SUM

130548

1.59408

3.110406

BITs-SUM-Square 130548 14.86166

46.06932

361

BIT-Dyad* BITs-SUM

130548 0.531115

2.369902

TRADE

130548

0.098051

0.584308

-2.43435

57.632

DISTANCE

130548

7.508011

3.920736

0.059617

19.6295

SKILL

130548

24.34388

15.57239

-40.6847

97.74065

INCOME

130548

14435.77

7958.769

-13883.9

41789.6

ALLIANCE

130548

0.018698

0.135457

WTO

130548

0.455892

0.498053

GDP

130548

1.584551

2.453486

-12.8111

23.07724

POLITY

130548

-2.04993

6.568754

-27.6909

25.84851

POPULATION

130548

15.597

1.67467

11.00709

20.98563

AFRICA

130548

0.363636

0.481048

APAC

130548

0.166667

0.372679

LAC

130548

0.189394

0.391823

6

Appendix A, Cont’d

Pair-wise Correlations

PTA

BIT-

Dyad

BITs-

SUM

BITs-

SUM-

Square

BIT-

Dyad*

BITs-

SUM TRADE

DISTANCE

SKILL

INC. ALLIANCE WTO GDP

POLITY

BIT-Dyad

0.14

BITs-SUM

0.18

0.53

BITs-SUM-Square

0.01

0.10

0.19

BIT-Dyad* BITs-

SUM

0.15

0.82

0.69

0.15

TRADE

0.08

0.15

0.16

0.04

0.16

DISTANCE

-0.09

-0.11

-0.05

-0.06

-0.10

-0.08

SKILL

-0.04

-0.10

-0.12

-0.06

-0.12

-0.04

0.20

INCOME

0.04

0.19

0.27

-0.02

0.15

0.06

-0.02

-0.01

ALLIANCE 0.05

0.02

0.05

0.04

0.02

-0.09

-0.02

0.04

WTO

0.04

0.15

0.29

0.05

0.14

0.03

0.14

0.02

0.16

0.07

GDP

0.03

0.06

0.07

0.03

0.00 -0.15

-0.29

0.04

-0.01

POLITY

0.04

0.12

0.22

0.04

0.17

-0.01

0.15

-0.06

0.11

0.22

0.11

POPULATION 0.07

0.14

0.26

0.20

0.17

0.10

-0.06 -0.04

0.10

0.07

0.22

-0.04

0.03

7

Appendix B

Host Countries Included in Estimations

Afghanistan

Albania

Algeria

Angola

Argentina

Armenia

Azerbaijan

Bangladesh

Belarus

Belize

Benin

Bhutan

Bolivia

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Botswana

Brazil

Bulgaria

Burkina Faso

Burundi

Cambodia

Cameroon

Cape Verde

Central African Republic

Chad

Chile

China

Colombia

Comoros

Congo

Congo, DR

Costa Rica

Croatia

Cuba

Côte d'Ivoire

Djibouti

Dominica

Dominican Republic

Ecuador

Egypt

El Salvador

Equatorial Guinea

Eritrea

Ethiopia

Fiji

Gabon

Gambia

Georgia

Ghana

Guatemala

Guinea

Guinea-Bissau

Guyana

Haiti

Honduras

Hungary

India

Indonesia

Iran

Iraq

Jamaica

Jordan

Kazakhstan

Kenya

Korea, DPR

Kyrgyzstan

Lao

Latvia

Lebanon

Lesotho

Liberia

Libya

Lithuania

Macedonia

Madagascar

Malawi

Malaysia

Maldives

Mali

Mauritania

Mauritius

Mexico

Moldova

Mongolia

Morocco

Mozambique

Myanmar

Namibia

Nepal

Nicaragua

Niger

Nigeria

Oman

Pakistan

Panama

Papua New Guinea

Paraguay

Peru

Philippines

Poland

Romania

Russia

Rwanda

Sao Tome & Principe

Senegal

Serbia & Montenegro

Sierra Leone

Singapore

Slovakia

Solomon Islands

Somalia

South Africa

Sri Lanka

Sudan

Suriname

Swaziland

Syria

Tajikistan

Tanzania

Thailand

Togo

Tunisia

Turkey

Turkmenistan

Uganda

Ukraine

Uruguay

Uzbekistan

Venezuela

Viet Nam

Yemen

Zambia

Zimbabwe

8

Appendix B, Cont’d

Download 133,37 Kb.

Do'stlaringiz bilan baham:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8