Microsoft Word 2007 ichrie conference Proceedings Final-Final 06-06-07. doc

 
2007 Annual International CHRIE Conference & Exposition 
30
have a significantly negative impact on tourism expansion 
.
LTA
Δ
Similarly, we test the causality through the first 
channel only since the four factors are of different integration orders and cannot be cointegrated for the case of 
Singapore either. The Granger causality test results show that both 
LTA
Δ
and 
LEXP
Δ
can Granger-cause 
.
LIP
Δ
Empirical results also support a unidirectional causality running from 
LEXP
Δ
to 
LTA
Δ
, from 
LTA
Δ
to 
LEXCH
Δ
, 
and from 
LEXCH
Δ
to 
.
LEXP
Δ
Further, 
LEXCH
Δ
was significantly affected by the Asian financial crisis.
For the case of Korea, the causality among the four factors can be identified either through the first channel 
based on the Wald test or through the second channel (i.e. through the lagged error-correction term) because the four 
variables are of the same integration orders and cointegrated. Test results illustrate that a bi-directional causality 
between 
LEXCH
Δ
and 
LIP
Δ
is detected through the first channel and a bi-directional causality between 
LEXP
Δ
and 
LTA
Δ
is identified through both the first and second channels. Moreover, we find a unidirectional causality running 
from 
LIP
Δ
to 
LTA
Δ
, from 
LEXCH
Δ
to 
LTA
Δ
, from 
LIP
Δ
to 
LEXP
Δ
, and from 
LEXCH
Δ
to 
LEXP
Δ
via the second 
channel. The Asian financial crisis had a beneficial impact on export growth 
LEXP
Δ
. Similar to the case of Korea, 
we can use both channels to test the direction of causality among the four factors for the case of Taiwan since the 
four variables are also of the same integration orders and cointegrated. Test results indicate that a one-way causality 
from 
LTA
Δ
to 
LIP
Δ
is discovered via the first channel, and a one-way causality from 
LIP
Δ
to 
LTA
Δ
is identified by 
both channels. That is, there exists a bi-directional causality between 
LTA
Δ
and 
LIP
Δ
. We further detect a one-way 
causality from 
LEXP
Δ
to 
,
LIP
Δ
a one-way causality from 
LIP
Δ
to 
,
LEXCH
Δ
and a one-way causality from 
LEXP
Δ
to 
LEXCH
Δ
according to the first channel. Through both channels, a one-way causality from 
LEXCH
Δ
to 
LTA
Δ
and a 
one-way causality from 
LEXP
Δ
to 
LTA
Δ
are identified. Of all four mega events, both the earthquake on September 
21, 1999 and the SARS outbreak in 2003 were found to significantly damage the tourism development in Taiwan. 
The 911 terrorist attacks in the U.S. also had a negative impact on the tourism expansion, but the effect was not 
statistically significant.