Members in Transition Committee The Role of Oil and Gas in the Next 100 Years. March 3, 2017 Outline

WEO 2016 Oil Market Outlook

Source: WEO 2016, Oil Market Outlook, Highlights, p 107

• The pledges made as part of the Paris Agreement do not induce a peak in oil demand before 2040 in the New Policies Scenario. The difficulty of finding alternatives to oil in road freight, aviation and petrochemicals means that, up to 2040, the growth in these three sectors alone is greater than the growth in global oil demand. There are also marked changes in the geography of demand: India becomes the leading source of future growth, while China overtakes the United States to become the single largest consuming country in the early 2030s.