Members in Transition Committee The Role of Oil and Gas in the Next 100 Years. March 3, 2017 Outline

WEO 2016 Overview

Source: WEO 2016 Introduction and Scope, p 32

• Consumption of all modern fuels continues to grow in the period to 2040 in the New Policies Scenario. Oil demand rises steadily to 103.5 mb/d in 2040; gas consumption rises by nearly 50%, overtaking coal. But renewable energy is the major growth story of the Outlook: in the power sector, 60% of all capacity additions to 2040 are from renewables.
• The relationship between global economic growth, energy demand and related CO2 emissions is steadily weakening. The climate pledges made at COP21 lock in a continuation of this trend, but do not yet deliver the early peak in emissions that would be needed for a 2 °C emissions trajectory.
• An early peak and then a fall in emissions consistent with the 450 Scenario would require a step-change in the decarbonization of the power sector, including measures to integrate variable renewables, and profound changes to the efficiency and carbon intensity of end-uses.