Landsats Aff

Landsats 1AC

Accurate predictions of crop yield are crucial to maintaining economic stability and planning for disasters. Only Landsats allow planners to manage crises.
Doraiswamy et al 7 (Paul C., Bakhyt Akhmedov b , Larry Beard c , Alan Stern a and Richard Mueller c a USDA, b Science Systems and Associates, Inc. c USDA, http://www.ars.usda.gov/SP2UserFiles/person/ 1430/ISPRS_AGRIFISH_Final.pdf , accessed 7/8/11) CJQ

Accurate and timely monitoring of agricultural crop conditions and estimating potential crop yields are essential processes for operational programs. Assessment of particularly decreased production caused by a natural disaster, such as drought or pest infestation, can be critical for countries or locales where the economy is dependent on the crop harvest. Early assessment of yield reductions could avert a disastrous situation and help in strategic planning to meet demands. The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) monitors crop conditions and makes the Official USDA production assessments in the U.S., providing monthly production forecasts and end-of-year estimates of crop yield and production. NASS has developed methods to assess crop growth and development from several sources of information, including several types of surveys of farm operators and field-level measurements. Field offices in each state are responsible for monitoring the progress and health of the crop and integrating crop condition with local weather information. Information on crop condition and progress is also distributed in a biweekly report on regional weather conditions. NASS offices provide monthly information to the Agriculture Statistics Board, which assesses the potential yields of all commodities based on crop condition information acquired from different sources. This research complements efforts to independently assess crop condition at the county and state levels. The timely evaluation of potential yields is increasingly important because of the huge economic impact of agricultural products on world markets and strategic planning. County statistics are noted as a driving force for rural economic development, and are essential to proper management of USDA’s many farm, education, and natural resources management programs. Many allocations of federal resources to states and counties are determined by their production of farm commodities. Demand for accurate commodity estimates at the lowest level of aggregation, and at the earliest possible time, has and continues to increase substantially. Literally millions of business decisions rely on this basic production data produced by USDA/NASS. In the early 1960s, NASS initiated “objective yield” surveys for crops such as corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton in States with the greatest acreages (Allen et al., 1994). These surveys establish small sample units in randomly selected fields which are visited monthly to determine maturity, numbers of plants, numbers of fruits (wheat heads, corn ears, soybean pods, etc.), and weight per fruit. Yield forecasting models are based on relationships of samples of the same maturity stage in comparable months during the past four years in each State. These indications are then compared to farmer-based survey results to produce monthly yield forecasts. Additionally, the Agency implemented a midyear Area Frame Survey that enabled creation of probabilistic based acreage estimates. For major crops, sampling errors are as low as 1 percent at the U.S. level and 2 to 3 percent in the largest producing States. Accurate crop production forecasts require accurate estimates of acreage at harvest, its geographic distribution, and the associated crop yield determined by local growing conditions. There can be significant year-to-year variability which requires a systematic monitoring capability. To quantify the complex effects of environment, soils, and management practices, both yield and acreage must be assessed. A yield forecast within homogeneous soil type, land use, crop variety, and climate preclude the necessity for use of a complex forecast model.

Landsats 1AC

Food crises escalate into food wars and regional conflicts
Smith 98 (Paul J., Asia-Pacific Center for Sec'y Studies, http://www.apcss.org/Publications/ Report_Food_Security_98.html, accessed 7/8/11) CJQ

Food security and political stability are often inextricably linked in many countries. Historically, significant malnutrition and famine have been caused by the disruption of food supplies through wars and civil strife.53  Yet, the concepts of food security and political stability are often mutually dependent and reinforcing. Food security, for example, can influence the political stability of countries. Simultaneously, political instability (such as wars or other forms of civil strife) can influence food security, as can be seen recently in the case of Indonesia. One seminar participant noted that the greatest risk for regime stability is the risk of urban riots—riots that are sometimes sparked by food shortages or sudden price increases among food products. Generally, starvation in the countryside does not result in political instability. This is because those who experience the brunt of food shortages tend to be rural and have little political voice. A recent example of this phenomenon occurred in India where rising food prices led to urban riots directed at India’s ruling political party—the Bharatiya Janata Party. Similarly, when the price of rice soared in Indonesia, thereby making it prohibitively expensive for a large segment of the population, food riots erupted in eastern Java. The government deployed military forces around markets to prevent looting. Moreover, China’s sharp rejection of the Lester Brown thesis that China needs to import massive amounts of grain from the world market in the coming century was partially rooted in a persistent fear within the Chinese government that food insecurity could potentially provoke widespread anger against the Communist Party and perhaps lead to civil unrest. Thus, the sensitivity that many Asian governments have about food security may be linked to fears of social instability and perhaps even political revolution. Food security thus becomes an issue of regime survival. Another security concern prominent in many Asian capitals is the prospect for increased economic migration as a result of food shortages. Internal migration is the first concern for many governments, especially as internal migration is often a natural "coping response" in times of famine. When North Korea experienced severe floods in September 1995, South Korea responded by creating refugee camps to deal with the possible flood of people who might have fled toward the south. Similarly, Indonesia’s food crisis in 1997 was partly responsible for the outflow of thousands of Indonesian migrants to Malaysia. As the crisis in Indonesia intensified in early 1998, many neighboring countries feared that many more "hungry Indonesians [would] take to boats in search of a better life."54 Many countries in East Asia are extremely sensitive and wary about immigration—especially mass migration or illegal migration. The recent surge in labor and economic migration throughout the region has catapulted the immigration issue to the highest levels of government. Immigration disputes, moreover, have broken out between nations—such as the in case of Singapore and the Philippines in 1995—regarding illegal immigration and repatriation policies. Few governments in the region officially desire more immigration. To the extent that food insecurity might spur greater migration, then it may be viewed by many governments in the region as a security concern.
Food shortages collapse the global economy, lead to multiple scenarios for war
AFP 2k8 [IMF warns rising food prices raising risk of war, Apr 12, 2008, http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5hL9XafrtiaulCYd-cHwk4eonPFGw]

WASHINGTON (AFP) — Rising food prices could have terrible consequences for the world, including the risk of war, the IMF has said, calling for action to keep inflation in check. "Food prices, if they go on like they are doing today ... the consequences will be terrible," International Monetary Fund managing director Dominque Strauss-Kahn said. "Hundreds of thousands of people will be starving ... (leading) to disruption of the economic environment," Strauss-Kahn told a news conference at the close of the IMF spring meeting here. Development gains made in the past five or 10 years could be "totally destroyed," he said, warning that social unrest could even lead to war. "As we know, learning from the past, those kind of questions sometimes end in war," he said. If the world wanted to avoid "these terrible consequences," then rising prices had to be tackled. Skyrocketing prices on rice, wheat, corn and other staple foods like milk particularly hurt developing nations, where the bulk of income is spent on the bare necessities for survival.Higher energy prices, too, are driving up the cost of food, as well as stoking broader inflation.In recent months, rising food costs have lead to social unrest in several countries such as Haiti and Egypt. Thirty-seven countries currently face food crises, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization.