In light of this discussion, explain why the put-call parity relationship is valid only for European options on
non-dividend-paying stocks. If the stock pays no dividends, what inequality for American options would
C H A P T E R
2 1
Option
Valuation
729
21.3
Binomial Option Pricing
Two-State Option Pricing
A complete understanding of commonly used option-valuation formulas is difficult with-
out a substantial mathematics background. Nevertheless, we can develop valuable insight
into option valuation by considering a simple special case. Assume that a stock price can
take only two possible values at option expiration: The stock will either increase to a given
higher price or decrease to a given lower price. Although this may seem an extreme simpli-
fication, it allows us to come closer to understanding more complicated and realistic mod-
els. Moreover, we can extend this approach to describe far more reasonable specifications
of stock price behavior. In fact, several major financial firms employ variants of this simple
model to value options and securities with optionlike features.
Suppose the stock now sells at S
0
5 $100, and the price will either increase by a factor
of
u 5 1.20 to $120 (
u stands for “up”) or fall by a factor of
d 5 .9 to $90 (
d stands for
“down”) by year-end. A call option on the stock might specify an exercise price of $110
and a time to expiration of 1 year. The interest rate is 10%. At year-end, the payoff to the
holder of the call option will be either zero, if the stock falls, or $10, if the stock price goes
to $120.
These possibilities are illustrated by the following value “trees”:
120
10
100
C
90
0
Stock price
Call option value
Compare the payoff of the call to that of a portfolio consisting of one share of the
stock and borrowing of $81.82 at the interest rate of 10%. The payoff of this portfolio also
depends on the stock price at year-end:
Value of stock at year-end
$90
$120
2 Repayment of loan with interest
2 90
2 90
TOTAL
$ 0
$ 30
We know the cash outlay to establish the portfolio is $18.18: $100 for the stock, less the
$81.82 proceeds from borrowing. Therefore the portfolio’s value tree is
30
18.18
0
The payoff of this portfolio is exactly three times that of the call option for either value
of the stock price. In other words, three call options will exactly replicate the payoff to the
portfolio; it follows that three call options should have the same price as the cost of estab-
lishing the portfolio. Hence the three calls should sell for the same price as this replicating
portfolio. Therefore,
3C 5 $18.18
or each call should sell at C 5 $6.06. Thus, given the stock price, exercise price, interest
rate, and volatility of the stock price (as represented by the spread between the up or down
movements), we can derive the fair value for the call option.
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730
P A R T V I
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives
This valuation approach relies heavily on the notion of replication. With only two pos-
sible end-of-year values of the stock, the payoffs to the levered stock portfolio replicate the
payoffs to three call options and, therefore, command the same market price. Replication is
behind most option-pricing formulas. For more complex price distributions for stocks, the
replication technique is correspondingly more complex, but the principles remain the same.
One way to view the role of replication is to note that, using the numbers assumed for
this example, a portfolio made up of one share of stock and three call options written is
perfectly hedged. Its year-end value is independent of the ultimate stock price:
Stock
value
$90
$120
2 Obligations from 3 calls written
2 0
2 30
Net
payoff
$90
$ 90
The investor has formed a riskless portfolio, with a payout of $90. Its value must be the
present value of $90, or $90/1.10 5 $81.82. The value of the portfolio, which equals $100
from the stock held long, minus 3 C from the three calls written, should equal $81.82.
Hence $100 2 3 C 5 $81.82, or C 5 $6.06.
The ability to create a perfect hedge is the key to this argument. The hedge locks in the
end-of-year payout, which therefore can be discounted using the risk-free interest rate. To
find the value of the option in terms of the value of the stock, we do not need to know either
the option’s or the stock’s beta or expected rate of return. The perfect hedging, or replica-
tion, approach enables us to express the value of the option in terms of the current value
of the stock without this information. With a hedged position, the final stock price does
not affect the investor’s payoff, so the stock’s risk and return parameters have no bearing.
The hedge ratio of this example is one share of stock to three calls, or one-third. This
ratio has an easy interpretation in this context: It is the ratio of the range of the values of the
option to those of the stock across the two possible outcomes. The stock, which originally
sells for S
0
5 100, will be worth either d 3 $100 5 $90 or u 3 $100 5 $120, for a range of
$30. If the stock price increases, the call will be worth
C
u
5 $10, whereas if the stock price
decreases, the call will be worth C
d
5 0, for a range of $10. The ratio of ranges, 10/30, is
one-third, which is the hedge ratio we have established.
The hedge ratio equals the ratio of ranges because the option and stock are perfectly
correlated in this two-state example. Because they are perfectly correlated, a perfect hedge
requires that they be held in a fraction determined only by relative volatility.
We can generalize the hedge ratio for other two-state option problems as
H 5
C
u
2 C
d
uS
0
2 dS
0
where C
u
or C
d
refers to the call option’s value when the stock goes up or down, respec-
tively, and uS
0
and dS
0
are the stock prices in the two states. The hedge ratio, H, is the
ratio of the swings in the possible end-of-period values of the option and the stock. If the
investor writes one option and holds H shares of stock, the value of the portfolio will be
unaffected by the stock price. In this case, option pricing is easy: Simply set the value of
the hedged portfolio equal to the present value of the known payoff.
Using our example, the option-pricing technique would proceed as follows:
1. Given the possible end-of-year stock prices, uS
0
5 120 and dS
0
5 90, and the
exercise price of 110, calculate that C
u
5 10 and C
d
5 0. The stock price range
is 30, while the option price range is 10.
2. Find that the hedge ratio of 10/30 5
1
⁄
3
.
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C H A P T E R
2 1
Option
Valuation
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3. Find that a portfolio made up of
1
⁄
3
share with one written option would have an
end-of-year value of $30 with certainty.
4. Show that the present value of $30 with a 1-year interest rate of 10% is $27.27.
5. Set the value of the hedged position to the present value of the certain payoff:
1
@
3
S
0
2 C
0
5 $27.27
$33.33 2
C
0
5 $27.27
6. Solve for the call’s value,
C
0
5 $6.06.
What if the option is overpriced, perhaps selling for $6.50? Then you can make arbi-
trage profits. Here is how:
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