Credit Default Swaps
A
credit default swap (CDS)
is in effect an insurance policy
on the default risk of a bond or
loan. To illustrate, the annual pre-
mium in July 2012 on a 5-year
German government CDS was
about 0.75%, meaning that the
CDS buyer would pay the seller
an annual premium of $.75 for
each $100 of bond principal. The
seller collects these annual pay-
ments for the term of the contract
but must compensate the buyer for
loss of bond value in the event of a
default.
15
–4
0
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
2012
4
8
12
16
20
Yield Spread (%)
High Yield
Baa-Rated
Aaa-Rated
Figure 14.11
Yield spreads between corporate and 10-year Treasury
bonds
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
15
Actually, credit default swaps may pay off even short of an actual default. The contract specifies the particular
“credit events” that will trigger a payment. For example, restructuring (rewriting the terms of a firm’s outstanding
debt as an alternative to formal bankruptcy proceedings) may be defined as a triggering credit event.
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P A R T I V
Fixed-Income
Securities
As originally envisioned, credit default swaps were designed to allow lenders to buy pro-
tection against default risk. The natural buyers of CDSs would then be large bondholders
or banks that wished to enhance the creditworthiness of their outstanding loans. Even if the
borrower had a shaky credit standing, the “insured” debt would be as safe as the issuer of the
CDS. An investor holding a bond with a BB rating could, in principle, raise the effective
quality of the debt to AAA by buying a CDS on the issuer.
This insight suggests how CDS contracts should be priced. If a BB-rated corporate
bond bundled with insurance via a CDS is effectively equivalent to a AAA-rated bond,
then the premium on the swap ought to approximate the yield spread between AAA-rated
and BB-rated bonds.
16
The risk structure of interest rates and CDS prices ought to be
tightly aligned.
Figure 14.12 , panel A, shows the premiums on 5-year CDSs on German government
debt between 2008 and 2012. Even as the strongest economy in the eurozone, German
CDS prices nevertheless reflect financial strain, first in the deep recession of 2009 and
then again in 2011 as the prospects of defaults (and German-led bailouts) of Greece and
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