C H A P T E R
2 1
Option
Valuation
755
This ratio tells us precisely how many shares of stock we must hold to offset our
exposure to IBM. For example, if the delta is 2 .6, then the put will fall by $.60 in value
for every one-point increase in IBM stock, and we need to hold .6 share of stock to hedge
each put. If we purchase 10 option contracts, each for 100 shares, we would need to buy
600 shares of stock. If the stock price rises by $1, each put option will decrease in value by
$.60, resulting in a loss of $600. However, the loss on the puts will be offset by a gain on
the stock holdings of $1 per share 3 600 shares.
To see how the profits on this strategy might develop, let’s use the following example.
Suppose option expiration T is 60 days; put price P is $4.495; exercise price X is $90;
stock price
S is $90;
and the risk-free rate r is 4%. We assume that the stock will not pay
a dividend in the next 60 days. Given these data, the implied volatility on the option is
33%, as we posited. However, you believe the true volatility is 35%, implying that the
fair put price is $4.785. Therefore, if the market assessment of volatility is revised to the
value you believe is correct, your profit will be $.29 per put purchased.
Recall that the hedge ratio, or delta, of a put option equals N ( d
1
) 2 1, where N (•) is
the cumulative normal
distribution function and
ln(S/X ) 1 (r 1 s
2
/ 2)T
s√T
d
1
5
Using your estimate of s 5 .35, you find that the hedge ratio
N (
d
1
) 2 1 5 2 .453.
Suppose, therefore, that you purchase 10 option contracts (1,000 puts) and purchase
453 shares of stock. Once the market “catches up” to your presumably better volatil-
ity estimate, the put options purchased will increase in value. If the market assessment
of volatility changes as soon as you purchase the options, your profits should equal
1,000 3 $.29 5 $290. The option price will be affected as well by any change in the
stock price, but this part of your exposure will be eliminated if the hedge ratio is chosen
properly. Your profit should be based solely on the effect of the change in the implied
volatility of the put, with the impact of the stock price hedged away.
Table 21.3 illustrates your profits as a function of the stock price assuming that the
put price changes to reflect your estimate of volatility. Panel B shows that the put option
alone can provide profits or losses depending on whether the stock price falls or rises.
We see in panel C, however, that each hedged put option provides profits nearly equal
to the original mispricing, regardless of the change in the stock price.
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