7
THE INVESTMENT DECISION
can be viewed
as a top-down process: (i) Capital allocation
between the risky portfolio and risk-free
assets, (ii) asset allocation in the risky portfo-
lio across broad asset classes (e.g., U.S. stocks,
international stocks, and long-term bonds),
and (iii) security selection of individual assets
within each asset class.
Capital allocation, as we saw in Chapter 6,
determines the investor’s exposure to risk.
The optimal capital allocation is determined
by risk aversion as well as expectations for the
risk–return trade-off of the optimal risky port-
folio. In principle, asset allocation and security
selection are technically identical; both aim
at identifying that optimal risky portfolio,
namely, the combination of risky assets that
provides the best risk–return trade-off. In
practice, however, asset allocation and secu-
rity selection are typically separated into two
steps, in which the broad outlines of the port-
folio are established first (asset allocation),
while details concerning specific securities
are filled in later (security selection). After we
show how the optimal risky portfolio may be
constructed, we will consider the costs and
benefits of pursuing this two-step approach.
We first motivate the discussion by illustrat-
ing the potential gains from simple diversifi-
cation into many assets. We then proceed to
examine the process of efficient diversification
from the ground up, starting with an invest-
ment menu of only two risky assets, then
adding the risk-free asset, and finally, incor-
porating the entire universe of available risky
securities. We learn how diversification can
reduce risk without affecting expected returns.
This accomplished, we re-examine the hierar-
chy of capital allocation, asset allocation, and
security selection. Finally, we offer insight into
the power of diversification by drawing an
analogy between it and the workings of the
insurance industry.
The portfolios we discuss in this and the fol-
lowing chapters are of a short-term-horizon—
even if the overall investment horizon is long,
portfolio composition can be rebalanced or
updated almost continuously. For these short
horizons, the assumption of normality is suf-
ficiently accurate to describe holding-period
returns, and we will be concerned only with
portfolio means and variances.
In Appendix A, we demonstrate how con-
struction of the optimal risky portfolio can
easily be accomplished with Excel. Appendix B
provides a review of portfolio statistics with
emphasis on the intuition behind covariance
and correlation measures. Even if you have
had a good quantitative methods course, it
may well be worth skimming.
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