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Strong regulatory push for EVs reduces total cost of
ownership down and raises EV competitiveness
•
EV and AV account for a growing share of miles pushed by
electrification of commercial, public and mobility-as-a-service
fleets with higher rate of use
•
ICE LDVs decrease, but remain the majority of vehicles.
Mobility-as-a-service and AVs help increase the EV mileage
•
Public policies continue to focus on traditional ownership
models, incentivizing privately owned EVs
•
Limited penetration of EVs, mobility-as-a-service and AVs
•
While the ICE stock decreases, EV and AV share of miles
remains limited
Status Quo - Proliferation
Opportunity - Transformation
~35%
VMT
~7%
VMT
Figure 9: EVs could represent up to 35% of LDV miles travelled by 2030
Status Quo - proliferation
Opportunity - transformation
Note: LDV= Light Duty Vehicle (like cars and small trucks); VMT = Vehicle Miles Traveled
Sources: Bureau of transport Statistics; IEA; Morgan Stanley; Euromonitor; Bain analysis
Figure 10: Full-cycle CO
2
emissions from EVs are at
least 60% lower than those from ICEs
Note: CO2 emissions include tailpipe and full cycle
Source: EPA; US Department of Energy; EIA; Bain analysis
2. CO2 emissions are from the IEA; costs are from the World Bank and Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, “The Cost of Air Pollution: Strengthening the
Economic Case for Action”. Washington, DC: World Bank, 2016.
•
Public policies continue to focus on traditional ownership
models, incentivizing personal-use EVs
•
Limited penetration of EVs, mobility-as-a-service and AVs
•
While the ICE stock decreases, EV and AV share of miles
remains limited
•
Strong regulatory push for EVs reduces total cost of
ownership down and raises EV competitiveness
•
EV and AV account for a growing share of miles pushed
by electrification of commercial, public and mobility-as-a-
service fleets with higher rate of use
•
ICE LDVs decrease, but remain the majority of vehicles.
Mobility-as-a-service and AVs help increase the EV
mileage
14
Electric Vehicles for Smarter Cities: The Future of Energy and Mobility
Environmental benefits of smart charging
with different energy mixes
In cities such as Oslo and Montreal where hydropower
generates more than 95% of the electricity, with no
emissions and no intermittency, EV charging would be
continuously clean. Smart charging would still be useful
to deal with any local constraints on the power grid, for
example, to reduce the need for grid reinforcements or to
shave peaks in demand.
In cities like Richmond, Virginia, in the eastern US, which
is supplied by a mix of wind and conventional coal
generation, charging could be timed to match the windiest
times.
Cities that derive an increasing share of their electricity
supply from renewable energies, for instance, San
Francisco or Houston in the US, could avoid curtailing
renewables by adjusting optimal charging times and
charging station locations.
b. Energy
Status quo – proliferation
In the current proliferation model, EVs are seen primarily as
a means of transport; their use as DERs remains at a very
preliminary stage.
The integration of the charging infrastructure with grid edge
technologies, such as decentralized generation, storage,
smart buildings and smart grids, is limited. Policy support in
the form of dynamic pricing and other regulatory aids that
could accelerate electrification is also limited.
While the potential global additional demand generated
by EVs will be relatively small (see Figure 11), locally it
could create challenges, leading to the need for additional
investments in grid peak capacity and grid reinforcements.
The opportunity – transformation
The integration of mobility patterns with electricity systems
and grid edge technologies could bring more than five times
the value of the status quo, representing up to $55 billion
of value in the US alone in 2030 (see Figure 8). Most of this
value will come from the smart management of electricity
demand.
In fact, charging EVs at the right time and in the right location
can increase the consumption of renewable energy, reduce
the need for additional peak capacity investment and improve
the stability of the grid (see Figure 12). With well-designed
pricing and rate structures, customers could benefit from
charging at lower rates that reflect the cost of electricity
production at a given time and location.
The use and benefits of smart charging can be accelerated
through a digitalized power system, dynamic pricing and grid
edge technologies, combined with new mobility patterns (see
Figure 15).
Figure 11: Forecasted
EV demand as per worldwide
additional power generation
•
5% of additional demand by 2030
•
1.5% of total electricity demand in 2030
400
Note: Excluding electricity production loss
Sources: IEA; European Environment Agency; OECD; Bain analysis
c. Mobility
Status quo – proliferation
Under the proliferation model, most policies focus on
encouraging the adoption of EVs for personal use and
individual vehicle owners will benefit from the potential savings
on the cost per mile (see Figure 13). However, given the low
use rate of personal-use vehicles (especially in terms of miles
driven) the overall benefit to society is minimal.
The opportunity – transformation
The value of EVs over ICEs increases with the use rate of the
vehicle. For this reason, focusing on shared EVs and AVs
could generate nearly five times more value in mobility than
with the proliferation scenario, representing up to $430 billion
in the US in 2030 (see Figure 8).
In particular, the penetration of AVs will have a significant
impact in the future given their high use rates while shuttling
multiple people at once.
15
Electric Vehicles for Smarter Cities: The Future of Energy and Mobility
Influence of new mobility patterns on cost
per mile
Public and private fleets, mobility-as-a-service and later
AVs will exhibit a decreasing cost per mile when going
electric.
Driving down the cost to around $0.40 per mile by
2030, AVs will be the real breakthrough for urban mobility
patterns. This new mobility cost benchmark will challenge
traditional self-ownership models and will affect customers’
choices.
Figure 13: Mobility-as-a-service AVs are set to
revolutionize LDV costs per mile
($/mile - excluding upfront cost – 2017 vs 2030)
LDV cost per mile
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