Учебное пособие по развитию навыков устной речи и чтения для студентов 1 курса технических специальностей

What do you think about the possible implications of the LHC? Find arguments for and against its application.


Text C. “Futurology”
1. Read and translate the text.
Futurology
If you could see your future, would you try to make it better? It’s safe to assume that we would all say “yes” to this question. Our only excuse in letting old patterns reoccur is a claim that we can't see the future with any degree of certainty, but is this claim true? Sometimes looking at terrible events we just want to exclaim, “How could they have not seen the future when it was so evident? What good is history if we cannot learn from its mistakes and plot a better course for the future?” These are some of the questions that futurology attempts to illuminate.
Futures is an interdisciplinary field, studying yesterday's and today's changes, and aggregating and analyzing both lay and professional strategies, and opinions with respect to tomorrow. It includes analyzing the sources, patterns, and causes of change and stability in the attempt to develop foresight and to map possible futures. Around the world the field is variously referred to as futures studies, strategic foresight, futurology, futuristics, futures thinking, futuring, etc. Futures studies (and one of its subdisciplines, strategic foresight) are the academic field's most commonly used terms in the English-speaking world.
Foresight may be the oldest term for the field. In a 1932 BBC broadcast the visionary author H.G. Wells called for the establishment of "Departments and Professors of Foresight," presaging the development of modern academic futures studies by approximately 40 years. Futurology is a term common in encyclopedias, though it used almost exclusively by nonpractitioners today, at least in the English-speaking world. Futurology is defined as the "study of the future." The term was coined by German professor Ossip K. Flechtheim  in the mid-1940s, who proposed it as a new branch of knowledge that would include a new science of probability. This term may have fallen from favor in recent decades because modern practitioners stress the importance of alternative and plural futures, rather than one monolithic future, and the limitations of prediction and probability, versus the creation of possible and preferable futures.
Futures studies does not generally focus on short term predictions such as interest rates over the next business cycle. Most strategic planning, which develops operational plans for preferred futures with time horizons of one to three years, is also not considered futures. But plans and strategies with longer time horizons that specifically attempt to anticipate possible future events are part of a major subdiscipline of futures studies called strategic foresight.
The futures field also excludes those who make future predictions through professed supernatural means. At the same time, it does seek to understand the models such groups use and the interpretations they give to these models.
Futurists use a diverse range of forecasting methods including causal layered analysis (CLA), environmental scanning, scenario method, future history, monitoring, backcasting (eco-history), back-view mirror analysis, cross-impact analysis, futures workshops, futures biographies, simulation and modelling, social network analysis, systems engineering, trend analysis, and some others.
Ready or not, here it comes. In the next 20 years, nano-technology will touch the life of nearly every person on the planet. The potential benefits are mind boggling and brain enhancing. But like many of the great advancements in earth's history, it is not without risk.