The structure of the global catastrophe

Chapter 11. The risks created by space technologies

Attack on the Earth by means of the space weapons

The irradiation of a planet from an orbit gamma beams (something like artificial gamma ray burst), neutrons or other dangerous radiations getting through atmosphere that will result in surface sterilization, by means of special satellites or explosions of bombs is theoretically possible. The bombardemnt on a planet by a rain of robots-meteorites is possible. A spaceship with near light speed can be applied as the space weapon via direction it on a planet. Any success in creation of high-speed space rockets and the more so starprobe vehicles will create the most powerful weapon against a planetary life as it is possible direct any starprobe vehicle on a planet. Casual explosion of any experimental installation in an orbit could lead to an irradiation of the Earth, but only one hemisphere.

Space watch facilities allow to find out almost each human and, accordingly, to direct on it any ultraprecise weapon. It can be, for example, lasers of space basing or sources of x-ray radiation. "Advantage" of the last that they can transfer a deadly dose imperceptibly and with ready smaller expenses of energy.

We can master space quickly (that is during the XXI century) by means of self-breeding robots or nanorobots. But then, having given to them a command to breed in a space and to build for us there huge constructions with use of a material of asteroids and the Moon, we can lose control over them. However in this case dangers to the Earth from space will come after powerful robotic technologies will be created, so after these technologies will start to threaten us on the Earth.

We already discussed above a problem of a deviation of asteroids.

One more way of space attack is to develop in space a huge mirror which will direct solar beams (or to cover it from Sun beams) on the Earth. But to make it without the aid of self-reproduced robots is difficultly, and it will be protected from it rather easily so it is very improbable variant.

So, we can conclude, that space attacks are improbable, because they are blocked by faster developments of destructive agencies on the Earth. But we should not lose track of this risk.

Ksenobiological risks

The risks, consisting that the life from space can be brought on the Earth, were accepted by NASA management seriously, since the flight on the Moon. Though it was possible to assert, that the Moon surface is sterile with very high probability, the astronauts who have come back from the Moon, have been subjected quarantine. It shows the competent approach to risks with very low probability which, however, can bring big damage beyond all bounds.

Assumptions of that flu viruses can come to us from tails of comets is, obviously, false as viruses are highly specialised parasites who cannot exist without owners. The real risk could represent highly omnivorous microorganism with the chemical structure considerably differing from terrestrial, for which terrestrial biosphere would be no protected. In process of development of a space and the organisation of returned expeditions on various space bodies, including planned expedition to Mars, the risk increases to meet such unbidden newcomer and by mistake to deliver to the Earth.

At the same time, such risk on usages is less than risk of creation on the Earth a similar dangerous microorganism or a synthetic life (animat).

A.V. Arhipov investigates possibility so-called «space archeology» on the Moon. He assumes, that the Moon could be an ideal place for searches of traces of ancient visitings of the Earth by spaceships of aliens and suggests to search on the Moon for regular structures which could be their traces. Such traces was not revealed on official data yet. Nevertheless, if we ever meet traces of other civilisation, they can contain dangerous technologies, devices or computer programs. More in detail this question is discussed in the head «the risks connected with SETI», and everything, that there is told about SETI, can be true and concerning possible successes of space archeology. (Vernor Vinge describes in the novel «Fire from Abyss» such scenario: the space archeology has led to detection and start of the dangerous computer program, developed in a superstrong artificial intellect and created risk of global catastrophe.)

Separate risk is possibility of revival of dangerous bacteria from the ancient frozen ice on the Earth.

Collision with intelligent forces surpassing us in the Universe

And religious scenarios about the Second coming, and ideas about aliens, and ideas that we live in the world, simulated by intelligent beings - all of them mean, that there are intelligent forces surpassing us which can suddenly and irreversible to interfere our life. Besides it is difficult to estimate probability of such events because of their not statistical nature. And if we can reduce probability from any experiments, simply having forbidden any experiments in the given situation almost nothing depends from us. The more widely the mankind will explore the space and to reveil itself, the more chance is that sooner or later it will meet somebody there. In other words, the probability of a meeting with other intelligent forces grows. And by experience of terrestrial history, for example, discovery of America, we know what to sustain a meeting with surpassing culture it is almost impossible.

The probability of collision with other intelligent beings first of all depends on our estimation of density of intelligent civilisations in the Universe. Now it is accepted by very low. The intelligent life is supposed to the unique phenomena in the observable Universe. But no direct proofs to it are present.

Chances of that aliens even if they exist, will arrive for the first time to us on starprobe vehicles right now (instead of earlier or later on ten millions years), are disappearing small from statistical reasons (less than 1 to million). Hence, there are two variants:

1) Sudden collision with a certain intelligent force in process of expansion to space. Expansion to space here means not only space flights, but also more and more distant listening of space by radio telescopes. See further the chapter: Risks of SETI.

2) We are for a long time already under the control or even are created by a certain intelligent force.

One of variants of such scenario is a collision not with intelligent forces, but with consequences of their activity. For example, if certain extraterrestial civilisation has made dangerous experiment which has ruined it, its consequences can extend on the Universe. It can be or disintegration of metastable vacuum as writes J. Leslie, or distribution primitive devouring all nanorobots. As an example it is possible to result that Mars and satellites of Jupiter have already undergone to risk of contamination with terrestrial microorganisms from interplanetary stations - though the most human reason on them is not present, and still for a long time will not be. In other words, dangerous by-effects from intelligent life in space can extend much faster, than intelligence itself.

Though we do not have bases to consider possible aliens hostility, the precaution principle forces us to admit it. The worst expression of animosities would be aspiration of such aliens to sterilise surrounding space, for example, that in the future not to have competitors. There is an assumption, that such hostile civilisation could scatter on all galaxies the certain observant stations named in one fantastic novel «berserkers» which in case of detection of radio signals from intelligent life go to it and attack it. This assumption is extremely improbable, as if it is a question of really "advanced" civilisation it could scatter such stations about every Sun-like star, and we would undergo for a long time to its attack (but here it is impossible to exclude actions of effect of observational selection in which force we could survive until the XXI century only at that star near to which there is no supervising station, no matter how small was this probability.)

Also it is considered as dangerous sending signals in space - METI as it can show out our site to other civilisations. However these efforts, probably, are blocked by that the radio emission of the Earth and without that is quite appreciable, and also that these signals have travelled only on small distance (less than 100 light years - that is the sphere including of only a few thousand of stars), and on such distance hardly there are civilisations which can reach to us quickly, with a velocity of light but never did it. In the United States operates the law forbidding sending of messages in space. Therefore all similar experiments are spent on a radio telescope in Evpatoria, Ukraine. Thus there are the calculations showing, that the probability of that our casual message will get to somebody - is insignificant is small. Rigid critic METI is David Brin who believes, that narrow focus beams directed precisely on the chosen star can be much more appreciable than background radiation of terrestrial television broadcasting stations and casual movement by the sky of bunches of beams of military radars, and suggests to wait with METI while we do not become more mature civilisation. A sending of signals METI is irreversible action and if in 50 years we change the mind we can not catch up and stop the signals sent earlier. Russia is ahead of all the planet in organisation METI though upon for all history only a few transfers have been organised. It lifts interesting methodological aspect of a problem: in spite of the fact that the majority of scientists are against of sending signals in space, anyway there are some people who consider themselves in the right to decide for all mankind, that actually is good for it.

Supporters METI assert, that strong civilisations if they exist should know about us as they possess improbably powerful tools of supervision, and our messages are addressed only to those civilisations which are on the same level as we. In this reasoning there is a logic puncture as civilisations of one level with us become sooner or later (if it in general is possible) strong space civilisations and if it occurs to the weak civilisation which has received only our signal, the Solar system will be the first place where they will fly. David Brin believes, that if we consider other civilisations altruistic the fact of silence of space should us prompt, that we should follow to their example, instead of to shout about ourselves at all dark wood - may be, they know something, that we do not know.

However METI finds sense as call about the help or attempt to organise some kind of «digital immortality» if it will appear, that global catastrophe is inevitable. In this case sending of history of mankind, its culture and DNA code in the digital form gives illusive chance that someone sometime will catch this signal and will restore people. Also is possible the variant of physical “panspermia” with distribution to space of set of grains of sand with samples of DNA of human and some messages - just as cast-away throw in the sea a bottle with a note.

If we live in the simulated world (this question will be discussed more detailed further), chances of " switch off" of this simulation, grow as it becomes more and more complex and need more resources. And it will become more resources-eating, in process of growth of the population of the Earth, but especially when people will start to create the computers with their own simulations. It is in a sense illustrated by a mathematical principle: the set cannot contain itself as a subset.

Also if the Earth is observed for a long time by certain intelligent forces (the scenario of space zoo) they can decide to interfere with a course of human history when it will reach some unacceptable for them, but unknown to us threshold (maybe AI creation). For example, people care of elephants in reserves but if their number exceeds critical the whole herds of elephants in some African reserves are shot from helicopters.