Second, after breaking the trendline or EMA, strength of the follow ups.
When I say taking
control, I don't mean touching or close beyond EMA with dojis. I mean slash through the EMA with
relatively large body bars and stay!
For example, in a reversal uptrend, when you see one strong bar closed above EMA, but the follow
ups are horrible. They are either Dojis or small body bull bars, just wonder around the EMA without
any clear direction. That's a warning that this reversal might fail! Bearish sideliners are watching the
EMA closely, if they see any weakness, they will jump in to push price down! If there is no strong
consecutive bull bars to support this reversal, no matter how strong the breakout bar is, it will fail.
When you see consecutive green bars after the break, then it's convincing that uptrend will continue.
Not only to watch the bull strength, also look out for any strong bear strength. Often countertrend
traders would push the price beyond the EMA for enough distance in order to trap buyers, then flush
the price down. If you see small body bear bars, or bear Dojis, that’s your confirmation that sellers
are losing their interest to continue. Nothing is written in stone. Trading is game of probability, if
everything looks supportive, just enter, don't over complicate things, place stop-loss below the
breakout bar.
Third, watch the Higher High or Lower Low after the break.
A trend is strong only if it makes
Higher High in an uptrend and Lower Low in a downtrend. When price breaks the trendline or EMA,
it's considered as a deep pullback, not a reversal. But when the price can't form new high or new low
for the original trend, then it's not trending! The trend is on pause and potentially reversing. For
example, in a downtrend, if price can't make a new lower low after the break of the trendline, instead
it formed higher low, then possible reversal is on the way. Same principle goes for uptrend, if it's
forming lower high after trendline break, be careful. They are considered as Double Top/Bottom
Major Reversal Patterns.
When the trend is very strong, countertrend traders don't stand a chance to make money. The best
reversal countertrend traders can get is a trading range. When the trend is weak, like a channel or
with frequent pullback, then reversal is more likely to happen. Therefore, as a trader, the main focus
is to always checking the strength of both sides, see which side is dominating and be flexible.
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