Balance-of-payments crises and other parallel episodes can similarly be identified using
capital flows data. Although there are some differences in approaches (e.g., how reserves
losses are treated) and statistical variations across studies (e.g., whether the same current
account deficit threshold is used for all countries or whether country-specific variables
thresholds are used), but many of them point to similar samples of actual events. Forbes and
Warnock (2012) analyze for a large set of countries gross flows, instead of the more typical
net capital flows (or current account). They identify episodes of extreme capital flow
movements using quarterly data, differentiating activity by foreigners and domestics. They
classify episodes as “surge”, “stop”, “flight,” or “retrenchment, with surges and stops related
respectively to periods of large gross capital in- or outflows by foreigners, and flights and
retrenchments respectively related to periods of large capital out- or inflows by domestic
residents.
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