Dissertation

Figure 3.4: Gross replacement rates: Model Vs U.S.

birth projections for 2075 under three plausible sets of assumptions: low-cost, i.e. favor-

able demographic conditions, intermediate, i.e. best estimates of likely future demographic

conditions, and high-cost, i.e. financially disadvantageous demographic conditions. The

projections are as follows:

1. Low-cost: life expectancy of 80.55, social security area population growth rate of

0.16%,

Student Version of MATLAB

2. Intermediate: life expectancy of 83.95, social security area population growth rate

of 0.09%, and

3. High-cost: life expectancy of 87.55, social security area population growth rate of

0.01%.

Gross replacement rate

The projections for the growth rate of the social security area population can be taken

directly to the model. To use the life expectancy projections, I augment the baseline