How bad could it get? America’s ugly election

Falls the shadow

While the courts deal with questions raised

by the states’ responses to covid-19, elec-

tion officials have to make them work on

the ground. Dealing with new counting

systems that comply with social-distanc-

ing requirements while also handling ab-

sentee and mail-in ballots in unprecedent-

ed quantities will be challenging. In New

York’s primary, on June 23rd, the volume of

mailed ballots returned in New York City

was ten times higher than usual. Thou-

sands of people did not receive the ballots

they requested; winners in some congres-

sional contests were not announced until

well over a month later. 

To be counted at all, ballots need to get

where they are meant to be going by a cer-

tain date, no matter when they were sent or

postmarked. This is why the tenure of Lou-

is DeJoy, a generous Republican donor, as

postmaster general has been a subject of

great scrutiny. After being appointed in

May, Mr DeJoy set about implementing va-

rious operational changes at the United

States Postal Service (

usps

), an institution

where he had never previously worked.

These included restrictions on overtime

and limits on the number of trips mail car-

riers can make back to the post office to

pick up more mail. 

The 

usps

has also removed hundreds of

mail-sorting machines from processing fa-

cilities, which makes delivery slower. In

Michigan—a crucial swing state which,

like Pennsylvania, Mr Trump narrowly

won in 2016 and where he is on track to lose

this year—postal-union officials say the re-

moval of machines has slowed sorting ca-

pacity by 270,000 pieces of mail per hour.

For a ballot to count in Michigan, it must

arrive at a county board of elections by

election day, no matter when it was post-

marked; delayed mail could easily disen-

franchise voters.

Mr DeJoy has said this is all essential

cost-saving. Others see his changes, imple-

mented so soon before an election heavily

dependent on mailed ballots, as deliberate

sabotage. At least 20 states have sued the

usps

over his changes or announced plans

to do so. Mr DeJoy reassured Congress in

August that the 

usps

could handle the up-

coming election. And under public pres-

sure he has vowed no further operational

changes. But he has not committed to re-

versing the changes already made.

These new burdens on changed systems

make it quite possible that America will

not see the sort of clean result it has come

to expect on election night. This was one of

the main conclusions drawn by the Transi-

tion Integrity Project through its war-gam-

ing. A number of swing states forbid elec-

tion officials from even sorting mailed

ballots before election day, which all but

assures several days spent counting. Offi-

cials will also need to verify provisional

ballots cast by voters whose eligibility is for