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Sectoral and Stock Allocation Logic



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IAPM Project Report 2

Sectoral and Stock Allocation Logic:
We have discussed our stock and sector allocation logic in more detail in the excel model
Based on the sectoral importance, we allocated sector weights based on future outlook and Markowitz Optimization model results.

Sector

Weights

Amount

IT

20.00%

0.60

FMCG

20.00%

0.60

Automobile

4.00%

0.12

Paint

20.00%

0.60

BFSI

4.00%

0.12

Pharma

4.00%

0.12

Chemicals

4.00%

0.12

Oil

4.00%

0.12

Plastics

4.00%

0.12

Manufacturing

4.00%

0.12

Real_Estate

8.00%

0.24

Infrastructure

4.00%

0.12

We ran the Markowitz Optimization Model to allocate our equity portfolio to following stocks with weights ranging from 0.25% to 10%





Share

Weights

Amount(In Cr)

INFOSYS

0.25%

0.01

HUL

9.75%

0.29

HCL TECH

0.25%

0.01

H D F C

0.25%

0.01

BAJAJ AUTO

4.00%

0.12

TECH M

0.25%

0.01

BERGER PAINTS

10.00%

0.30

ICICI LOMBARD

0.25%

0.01

MINDTREE

0.25%

0.01

Bajaj Finserv

3.25%

0.10

ALKEM LAB

0.25%

0.01

AARTI IND

0.25%

0.01

OIL INDIA

3.50%

0.10

BAYER CROP

0.25%

0.01

SUPREME IND

4.00%

0.12

COFORGE

8.75%

0.26

AJANTA PHARMA

0.25%

0.01

DCM SHRIRAM

0.25%

0.01

GUJ. ST. PETRONET

0.25%

0.01

MOTILAL OSWAL FIN SERVICES

0.25%

0.01

KEI INDUSTRIES

3.25%

0.10

BALAJI AMINES

3.75%

0.11

ERIS LIFESCIENCES

0.25%

0.01

FINOLEX PIPES

0.25%

0.01

AEGIS LOGISTICS

0.25%

0.01

WELLSPUN INDIA

0.25%

0.01

SONATA SOFTWARE

0.25%

0.01

GRANULES INDIA

2.75%

0.08

KAMA HOLDINGS

7.75%

0.23

KNR CONSTRUCTIONS

0.25%

0.01

ITC

0.25%

0.01

MASTEK

10.00%

0.30

PNC INFRATECH

3.75%

0.11

SHARDA CROP

0.25%

0.01

CAPLIN POINTLAB

0.25%

0.01

Nestle

10.00%

0.30

Asian Paints

9.75%

0.29

Kansai Nerolac

0.25%

0.01

Based on data, we expect the following performance from our portfolio:



Expected Portfolio Return

30.50%

Expected Portfolio Risk (Variance)

5.12%

Portfolio Std Deviation

22.62%

Portfolio Weighted Avg Beta

1.0217

Risk Free Rate

6.00%

Sharpe Ratio

1.083

Debt Securities (30%)

Our investor is a risk neutral investor who wants to have sufficient corpus after he retires. Bonds although are not as attractive as equity asset class when it comes to upside potential, but they do have very limited downside exposure as compared to equity. The credit risk associated with the issuer can also be mitigated to some extent by choosing to invest in sovereign rated securities. Hence, we have decided to invest 30% of the total capital in debt securities.




Market overview:
The market has been quite unstable since the inception of Russia-Ukraine war coupled with rising red-hot inflation. In April as a surprise move RBI turned their dovish stance by hiking the policy rate by 40 bps and then again in June by 50 bps. Increasing interest rates have opposite effect on bond prices making them cheaper.

Portfolio

2nd rate hike

1st rate hike


bps

NAV

Yield

150

93.1166875

9.363875

100

95.411125

8.863875

50

97.7055625

8.363875

0

100

7.863875

-50

102.294438

7.363875

-100

104.588875

6.863875

-150

106.883313

6.363875

We have taken a healthy mix of all AAA rated bonds ranging from 2 years to maturity to 14 years to maturity which takes care of any liquidity risk that our investor might face if need arises. The PSU bonds offer slightly premium coupon compared to G-secs and we can benefit from the slightly higher coupon rate. The government securities have already factored in higher inflation expectations and are trading at higher YTM, the longer dated securities might see price appreciation as the inflation woes ease up. Adani bond (ESG issuance) will benefit from price appreciation because of pull to par phenomenon of the bond which is trading at 96 clean and is closer to its maturity. We have also invested in approximately 754 gms of SGBs which offer a natural hedge against the movement in Equity and Bond market.


( - Represents a green issuance)


Corporate Bonds (Domestic)



ISIN

Issuer

Rating (CRISIL)

Tenor (Yrs)

Maturity

Coupon (%)

Face

Clean Price

Dirty Price

YTM (%)

Amount
(₹ Lakh)

INE733E07JP6

NTPC

AAA

10

25/03/25

8.49

12.5

13.13

13.57

6.584

30

INE733E07JW2

NTPC

AAA

20

05/10/35

7.62

1000

1255.9

1281.30

4.910

15

INE053F07835

IRFC

AAA

15

21/12/30

7.53

1000

1180

1182.72

4.771

20



G-Secs



ISIN

Issuer

Rating (CRISIL)

Tenor (Yrs)

Maturity

Coupon (%)

Face

Clean Price

Dirty Price

YTM (%)

Amount
(₹ Lakh)

IN0020210244

Gov

AAA

10

17/01/32

6.54

100

95

95.545

7.261

15

IN0020220029

Gov

AAA

14

25/05/36

7.54

100

100.02

100.64

7.538

5



SGB



ISIN

Issuer

Rating (CRISIL)

Tenor (Yrs)

Maturity

Coupon (%)

Face

Clean Price

Dirty Price

YTM (%)

Amount
(₹ Lakh)




IN0020210053

Gov

AAA

8

21/05/29

2.5

4777

4724.5

4737.43

2.676

40



Corporate Bonds (Offshore)




ISIN

Issuer

Rating (CRISIL)

Tenor (Yrs)

Maturity

Coupon (%)

Face
($)

Clean Price ($)

Dirty Price ($)

YTM (%)

Amount
(₹ Lakh)

XS1854172043

Adani Green (ESG

AAA

5

30/05/24

6.25

100

96

96.52

8.509

35

Money Market Securities (10%)

Money market securities offer liquidity to the portfolio in case of exigencies of our investor. As this security is to protect the urgent needs of our investor, we have decided to put 10% of our allocated capital in money market securities. Most commercial papers and certificate of deposits have higher face values at which they are issued we decided to not invest in them. Instead, we decided to invest in 6 month and 1 year T-bills.



ISIN

Security Description

Tenor (Days)

Maturity

LTP (₹)

LTY (%)

Amount
(₹ Lakh)

IN002021Y510

182 DTB 01092022

182

01/09/22

99.1387

4.955

10

IN002021Y544

182 DTB 22092022

182

22/09/22

98.8263

5.1

10

IN002022Z127

364 DTB 22062023

364

22/06/23

94.2414

6.23

30





Derivatives (0.15%)

Adani Green Bond is listed in SGX and the semi-annual coupon payments will be in dollars, to protect the capital of our investor from exchange rate fluctuations we have taken position is USD/INR futures. The contract will expire on last Thursday of coupon payment month and the contract must be renewed for the next coupon payment.





Security

Lot Size

Value of futures

Coupon Payment ($)

Invested Amount (₹)

No of lots required

Amount (₹)

USDINR Nov FUT

50

79.86

6.25

2500000

20

78125

References:





  • BSE and NSE India

  • Screener

  • Crisil Research

  • Yahoo Finance

  • RBI

  • Money Control

  • Trendlyne

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