Sectoral and Stock Allocation Logic:
We have discussed our stock and sector allocation logic in more detail in the excel model
Based on the sectoral importance, we allocated sector weights based on future outlook and Markowitz Optimization model results.
Sector
|
Weights
|
Amount
|
IT
|
20.00%
|
0.60
|
FMCG
|
20.00%
|
0.60
|
Automobile
|
4.00%
|
0.12
|
Paint
|
20.00%
|
0.60
|
BFSI
|
4.00%
|
0.12
|
Pharma
|
4.00%
|
0.12
|
Chemicals
|
4.00%
|
0.12
|
Oil
|
4.00%
|
0.12
|
Plastics
|
4.00%
|
0.12
|
Manufacturing
|
4.00%
|
0.12
|
Real_Estate
|
8.00%
|
0.24
|
Infrastructure
|
4.00%
|
0.12
|
We ran the Markowitz Optimization Model to allocate our equity portfolio to following stocks with weights ranging from 0.25% to 10%
Share
|
Weights
|
Amount(In Cr)
|
INFOSYS
|
0.25%
|
0.01
|
HUL
|
9.75%
|
0.29
|
HCL TECH
|
0.25%
|
0.01
|
H D F C
|
0.25%
|
0.01
|
BAJAJ AUTO
|
4.00%
|
0.12
|
TECH M
|
0.25%
|
0.01
|
BERGER PAINTS
|
10.00%
|
0.30
|
ICICI LOMBARD
|
0.25%
|
0.01
|
MINDTREE
|
0.25%
|
0.01
|
Bajaj Finserv
|
3.25%
|
0.10
|
ALKEM LAB
|
0.25%
|
0.01
|
AARTI IND
|
0.25%
|
0.01
|
OIL INDIA
|
3.50%
|
0.10
|
BAYER CROP
|
0.25%
|
0.01
|
SUPREME IND
|
4.00%
|
0.12
|
COFORGE
|
8.75%
|
0.26
|
AJANTA PHARMA
|
0.25%
|
0.01
|
DCM SHRIRAM
|
0.25%
|
0.01
|
GUJ. ST. PETRONET
|
0.25%
|
0.01
|
MOTILAL OSWAL FIN SERVICES
|
0.25%
|
0.01
|
KEI INDUSTRIES
|
3.25%
|
0.10
|
BALAJI AMINES
|
3.75%
|
0.11
|
ERIS LIFESCIENCES
|
0.25%
|
0.01
|
FINOLEX PIPES
|
0.25%
|
0.01
|
AEGIS LOGISTICS
|
0.25%
|
0.01
|
WELLSPUN INDIA
|
0.25%
|
0.01
|
SONATA SOFTWARE
|
0.25%
|
0.01
|
GRANULES INDIA
|
2.75%
|
0.08
|
KAMA HOLDINGS
|
7.75%
|
0.23
|
KNR CONSTRUCTIONS
|
0.25%
|
0.01
|
ITC
|
0.25%
|
0.01
|
MASTEK
|
10.00%
|
0.30
|
PNC INFRATECH
|
3.75%
|
0.11
|
SHARDA CROP
|
0.25%
|
0.01
|
CAPLIN POINTLAB
|
0.25%
|
0.01
|
Nestle
|
10.00%
|
0.30
|
Asian Paints
|
9.75%
|
0.29
|
Kansai Nerolac
|
0.25%
|
0.01
|
Based on data, we expect the following performance from our portfolio:
Expected Portfolio Return
|
30.50%
|
Expected Portfolio Risk (Variance)
|
5.12%
|
Portfolio Std Deviation
|
22.62%
|
Portfolio Weighted Avg Beta
|
1.0217
|
Risk Free Rate
|
6.00%
|
Sharpe Ratio
|
1.083
|
Debt Securities (30%)
Our investor is a risk neutral investor who wants to have sufficient corpus after he retires. Bonds although are not as attractive as equity asset class when it comes to upside potential, but they do have very limited downside exposure as compared to equity. The credit risk associated with the issuer can also be mitigated to some extent by choosing to invest in sovereign rated securities. Hence, we have decided to invest 30% of the total capital in debt securities.
Market overview:
The market has been quite unstable since the inception of Russia-Ukraine war coupled with rising red-hot inflation. In April as a surprise move RBI turned their dovish stance by hiking the policy rate by 40 bps and then again in June by 50 bps. Increasing interest rates have opposite effect on bond prices making them cheaper.
Portfolio
2nd rate hike
1st rate hike
bps
|
NAV
|
Yield
|
150
|
93.1166875
|
9.363875
|
100
|
95.411125
|
8.863875
|
50
|
97.7055625
|
8.363875
|
0
|
100
|
7.863875
|
-50
|
102.294438
|
7.363875
|
-100
|
104.588875
|
6.863875
|
-150
|
106.883313
|
6.363875
|
We have taken a healthy mix of all AAA rated bonds ranging from 2 years to maturity to 14 years to maturity which takes care of any liquidity risk that our investor might face if need arises. The PSU bonds offer slightly premium coupon compared to G-secs and we can benefit from the slightly higher coupon rate. The government securities have already factored in higher inflation expectations and are trading at higher YTM, the longer dated securities might see price appreciation as the inflation woes ease up. Adani bond (ESG issuance) will benefit from price appreciation because of pull to par phenomenon of the bond which is trading at 96 clean and is closer to its maturity. We have also invested in approximately 754 gms of SGBs which offer a natural hedge against the movement in Equity and Bond market.
( - Represents a green issuance)
Corporate Bonds (Domestic)
ISIN
|
Issuer
|
Rating (CRISIL)
|
Tenor (Yrs)
|
Maturity
|
Coupon (%)
|
Face
|
Clean Price
|
Dirty Price
|
YTM (%)
|
Amount
(₹ Lakh)
|
INE733E07JP6
|
NTPC
|
AAA
|
10
|
25/03/25
|
8.49
|
12.5
|
13.13
|
13.57
|
6.584
|
30
|
INE733E07JW2
|
NTPC
|
AAA
|
20
|
05/10/35
|
7.62
|
1000
|
1255.9
|
1281.30
|
4.910
|
15
|
INE053F07835
|
IRFC
|
AAA
|
15
|
21/12/30
|
7.53
|
1000
|
1180
|
1182.72
|
4.771
|
20
|
G-Secs
ISIN
|
Issuer
|
Rating (CRISIL)
|
Tenor (Yrs)
|
Maturity
|
Coupon (%)
|
Face
|
Clean Price
|
Dirty Price
|
YTM (%)
|
Amount
(₹ Lakh)
|
IN0020210244
|
Gov
|
AAA
|
10
|
17/01/32
|
6.54
|
100
|
95
|
95.545
|
7.261
|
15
|
IN0020220029
|
Gov
|
AAA
|
14
|
25/05/36
|
7.54
|
100
|
100.02
|
100.64
|
7.538
|
5
|
SGB
ISIN
|
Issuer
|
Rating (CRISIL)
|
Tenor (Yrs)
|
Maturity
|
Coupon (%)
|
Face
|
Clean Price
|
Dirty Price
|
YTM (%)
|
Amount
(₹ Lakh)
|
|
IN0020210053
|
Gov
|
AAA
|
8
|
21/05/29
|
2.5
|
4777
|
4724.5
|
4737.43
|
2.676
|
40
|
Corporate Bonds (Offshore)
ISIN
|
Issuer
|
Rating (CRISIL)
|
Tenor (Yrs)
|
Maturity
|
Coupon (%)
|
Face
($)
|
Clean Price ($)
|
Dirty Price ($)
|
YTM (%)
|
Amount
(₹ Lakh)
|
XS1854172043
|
Adani Green (ESG
|
AAA
|
5
|
30/05/24
|
6.25
|
100
|
96
|
96.52
|
8.509
|
35
|
Money Market Securities (10%)
Money market securities offer liquidity to the portfolio in case of exigencies of our investor. As this security is to protect the urgent needs of our investor, we have decided to put 10% of our allocated capital in money market securities. Most commercial papers and certificate of deposits have higher face values at which they are issued we decided to not invest in them. Instead, we decided to invest in 6 month and 1 year T-bills.
ISIN
|
Security Description
|
Tenor (Days)
|
Maturity
|
LTP (₹)
|
LTY (%)
|
Amount
(₹ Lakh)
|
IN002021Y510
|
182 DTB 01092022
|
182
|
01/09/22
|
99.1387
|
4.955
|
10
|
IN002021Y544
|
182 DTB 22092022
|
182
|
22/09/22
|
98.8263
|
5.1
|
10
|
IN002022Z127
|
364 DTB 22062023
|
364
|
22/06/23
|
94.2414
|
6.23
|
30
|
Derivatives (0.15%)
Adani Green Bond is listed in SGX and the semi-annual coupon payments will be in dollars, to protect the capital of our investor from exchange rate fluctuations we have taken position is USD/INR futures. The contract will expire on last Thursday of coupon payment month and the contract must be renewed for the next coupon payment.
Security
|
Lot Size
|
Value of futures
|
Coupon Payment ($)
|
Invested Amount (₹)
|
No of lots required
|
Amount (₹)
|
USDINR Nov FUT
|
50
|
79.86
|
6.25
|
2500000
|
20
|
78125
|
References:
BSE and NSE India
Screener
Crisil Research
Yahoo Finance
RBI
Money Control
Trendlyne
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