Gonzaga Debate Institute 2010 Bravo Lab China da

SCO Bad - WW3

The SCO has the potential to cause global instability culminating in WWIII

Stakelbeck 8 (Frederick, East Asia expert, Is the Shanghai Cooperation Organization a Military Confederacy, http://www.globalpolitician.com/21244-russia-china)

The SCO is a menacing confederacy of powerful nations arising out of the shadows of the Cold War that could cause tremendous global instability and even lead to world war. Geopolitics aside, the SCO has the potential to become the most powerful alliance on earth, combining Russia’s energy, military and technology expertise; China and India’s economic and human capital; and Iran’s enormous energy resources and growing military capabilities. This unique combination makes the SCO a formidable adversary for the U.S. In February, Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) chief of staff General Liang Guanglie said the Peace Mission 2005 exercises would, “protect the peace and stability in our region and the world.” The world? The world has been led to believe that the SCO is a regional alliance designed to address issues of mutual concern such as terrorism, separatism and extremism -- whatever they may mean at the moment for the members of the SCO. With military operations scheduled for 2006 and an expanded list of participating nations, the military threat posed by the SCO is starting to take shape.

SCO Bad – Central Asia

SCO promotes undemocratic regimes in Central Asia
Ambrosia 8 (Thomas, North Dakota University Europe-Asia Studies, Catching the ‘Shanghai Spirit’: How the Shanghai Cooperation Organization Promotes Authoritarian Norms in Central Asia, Routledge) KGL

Finally, the claim that the Central Asian states are moving towards democracy on their own accord in any substantive way is simply false. In fact, there has been a pattern over the past decade of increased autocracy and the tightening of political control. Without external pressure to liberalise, it is more likely that authoritarianism will be maintained. Instead of representing democratic openings, the SCO has directly connected the events in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan to the ‘three evil forces’. Rather than criticising autocratic governments for how they handle situations in their own countries, Zhang argued that outside powers should actively support their efforts to ensure the status quo, just as the SCO members were doing themselves. Thus, when linked to stability, the language of diversity serves as a ready response against external criticism and uses the language of liberal democracies to undermine democracy promotion. The norm of diversity, along with its corollaries of non-interference and separate but equal paths of development, has been used by the SCO to reinforce the legitimacy of the autocratic regimes of Central Asia. This is nothing new, as the legacy of authoritarianism in ASEAN and elsewhere have illustrated. When reinforced by the perception that anti-regime activities are inherently tied to the ‘evils’ of instability, the organisation’s emphasis on maintaining order over political change allows little room for democracy promotion.

SCO has potential to foster an Iran, Russia, China alliance that causes regional instability in central Asia
Cohen 6 (Ariel, Senior Research Fellow, The Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, The Heritage Foundation, The Dragon Looks West: China and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization) KGL

The United States should also seek bilateral agreements with the larger organization. Given that the SCO primarily serves as a geopolitical counter weight to the United States, American entrance into the organization is unlikely. The 2005 U.S. applica tion to join the SCO was rejected.[38] Under such conditions, it is doubtful the United States and China can agree on terms for American membership with out conceding their respective interests. However, the United States does not necessarily need membership in the organization to work closely with Central Asian states. It should renew its application to join as an observer and look to friendly states, such as Kazakhstan and Mongolia, for support. Whether or not the U.S. is able to attain observer status, it should use every diplomatic tool in its arsenal to oppose Iran's intention to join as a full member. Should Iran be permitted to enter the SCO, this will be a clear indication that Russia and China side with Iran on the issue of nuclear proliferation. Furthermore, inclusion of Iran would give the SCO significant influence over one of the world's largest supplies of oil and gas reserves, in addition to potentially another nuclear arsenal. Russian President Vladimir Putin's suggestion of forming a "natural gas OPEC" with Iran and Turkmenistan is of particular concern. These three countries are first, third, and fourth, respectively, in natural gas reserves, and will have the capacity to raise the global price of gas by regulating supply. If the United States hopes to gain observer status in the SCO, it should engage the Central Asian states specifically by balancing democracy promotion and democratization with its other national interests, including security and energy. With the exception of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, most of the Central Asian states continue to maintain links with the United States to balance Russian and Chinese power. The U.S. should use what remain ing contacts and leverage it has and continue to improve relations with friendly Central Asian states by providing economic, governance, and legislative reform assistance, and by enhancing military-to-military relationships. Working alongside these state governments in combating jihadists and terrorist organizations, the U.S. can appeal to common goals and secure American strategic and energy interests in the region.