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unexpected movements in the CBOE Volatility
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expectations surrounding the pandemic’s project-
ed evolution. In the severe downside scenario, a
large spike in volatility, coupled with a sharp and
unexpected reduction in credit supply, are used to
simulate the economic consequences of wide-
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5
In all scenarios, shocks to
financial conditions notably affect real activity
domestically, and those that occur in major
financial centers such as the United States are
assumed to spill over to other countries via the
model’s financial channels.
5
The VIX index rises to an average of 53 over 2021Q2 and
2021Q3 and credit spreads increase by 424 basis points on average
over the same period. Exchange rates in EMDEs depreciate, reflecting
the flight to safe havens.
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