Global outlook c h a p t e r 1

partly curbed by policy rate cuts and macro-
prudential support measures, which provided 
liquidity and promoted lending, as well as by 
sizable fiscal packages, which increased capital on 
health and information technology. The fall in 
FIGURE 1.8 
United States
The output collapse in the first half of 2020 dwarfs declines during the 
global financial crisis and other previous recessions. Large-scale 
emergency support to household incomes—well above that of the global 
financial crisis—helped power a rebound in a broad range of indicators 
starting in mid-2020, which was subsequently halted by a resurgence of 
COVID-19. Going forward, the recovery is likely to face headwinds from 
labor market scarring, with long-term unemployment rising at a faster rate 
than during the global financial crisis.
Sources
: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (database); U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 
(database); World Bank. 
Note
: GFC = global financial crisis; NFP = total nonfarm private payroll employment; Durable goods = 
manufacturer’s new orders of durable goods. 
A. Figure shows the percentage difference for U.S. real GDP between the peak before the crisis and 
the lowest point during the crisis. The “Early 1980s” is 1981Q4 to 1982Q1, “1973 Oil crisis” is 1974Q1 
to 1975Q1, “1957 recession” is 1957Q4 to 1958Q1, “GFC” is 2008Q1 to 2009Q2, and “COVID-19” is 
2020Q1 to 2020Q2. 
B. Figure shows the percentage difference between peak values and lowest point during recessions. 
Date for pre-recession peak of GFC is June 2008 and trough is March 2009, date for pre-recession 
peak of COVID-19 recession is February 2020 and trough is April 2020. 
C. Figure shows values for the United States as percentage changes since January 2020. Last 
observation is November 2020 for industrial production and NFP and October 2020 for durable goods 
and exports.
D. Figure shows the number of people unemployed for 27 weeks and over during the global financial 
crisis period and COVID-19 in the United States. “t” represents November, 2008 for the global 
financial crisis period, and March, 2020 for the COVID-19 period.
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