Forecasting hazards, averting disasters

21

5.3   International humanitarian response 

22

6    The evidence base for forecast-based early action 

23

6.1   The costs of anticipatory action 

23

6.2   Other cost–benefit considerations 

24

7    Taking forecast-based early action to scale 

26

7.1   Approaches to scaling up 

26

7.2   Embedding FbA in financing and delivery systems at scale 

26

7.3   Challenges for taking FbA to scale 

26

8  Conclusion 

29

References 30

Annexes 32

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5

List of boxes, tables and figures

Boxes

Box 1    Probabilistic forecasts and statistical methods for FbA 

11

Box 2    Selecting hazard triggers 

14

Box 3    Levels of automation in decision-making 

15

Box 4    Examples of evidence on the costs and benefits of early action 

25

Tables

Table 1  Methods for integrating hazard, vulnerability and exposure information to predict impact