The range and power of AI will increase
exponentially over the course of the next 50
years.
Beating world champions at Go might be an
impressive feat, but it’s also a pretty limited one.
After all, those same champions don’t just know
how to play Go; they can also tie their shoes,
write love letters, formulate political opinions and
do innumerable other things that humans can
do. In contrast, a program like AlphaGo Zero
does one thing very, very well – but only one
thing: in this case, playing Go.
Given the narrowness of the domain in which it’s
intelligent, such a program is called artificial
narrow intelligence, or ANI. Applications of ANI
already surround us in modern society; they
include spam filters, voice transcribers, self-
driving cars and virtual assistants like Apple’s
Siri and Amazon’s Alexa, both of which are
powered by DNNs.
Tech companies are pumping out ANI systems
and programs as fast as they can, applying them
to more and more domains of human life.
They’re already at work in our cellphones,
hospitals, genetic research labs, loan application
processors and even the stereo interfaces of
many new cars. As this trend continues, they’ll
eventually be intertwined with nearly every
aspect of our daily lives.
In each of their many domains, ANI systems
approach, equal or even surpass human
intelligence – but only within their domains.
However, the same basic principles behind
DNN-powered ANI programs can also be used
to create more generalized systems that can
tackle a wider scope of tasks, such as
conducting medical research or actively
participating in organizational meetings with a
human-like voice. When this milestone is
achieved, ANI will be surpassed by artificial
general intelligence or AGI. At this point, AI will
begin to approach parity with humans in terms of
overall intelligence.
From there, the sky will be the limit. Like
present-day ANI programs, AGI systems will be
able to improve themselves continuously at a
breathtaking pace. This will eventually allow
them to outperform the human mind – not just by
a little, but by trillions of times its level of
intelligence. At that point, AI will have achieved
artificial super intelligence or ASI.
The author estimates that AGI will be developed
sometime in the 2040s, while ASI will arrive by
2070. For reasons we’ll take a look at in the next
blink, we, therefore, have a very small window of
time in which to shape humanity’s AI-filled
future.
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