Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World – and Why Things Are Better Than You Think

Extreme Poverty
The other risks I have mentioned are highly probable scenarios that would
bring unknown levels of future suffering. Extreme poverty isn’t really a risk.
The suffering it causes is not unknown, and not in the future. It’s a reality. It’s
misery, day to day, right now. It is also where Ebola outbreaks come from,
because there are no health services to encounter them at an early stage; and
where civil wars start, because young men desperate for food and work, and
with nothing to lose, tend to be more willing to join brutal guerrilla
movements. It’s a vicious circle: poverty leads to civil war, and civil war
leads to poverty. The civil conflicts in Afghanistan and central Africa mean
that all other sustainability projects in those places are on hold. Terrorists hide
in the few remaining areas of extreme poverty. When rhinos are stuck in the
middle of a civil war, it’s much more difficult to save them.
Today, a period of relative world peace has enabled a growing global
prosperity. A smaller proportion of people than ever before is stuck in extreme
poverty. But there are still 800 million people left. Unlike with climate
change, we don’t need predictions and scenarios. We know that 800 million
are suffering right now. We also know the solutions: peace, schooling,
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universal basic health care, electricity, clean water, toilets, contraceptives, and
microcredits to get market forces started. There’s no innovation needed to end
poverty. It’s all about walking the last mile with what’s worked everywhere
else. And we know that the quicker we act, the smaller the problem, because
as long as people remain in extreme poverty they keep having large families
and their numbers keep increasing. Providing these necessities of a decent
life, quickly, to the final billion is a clear, fact-based priority.
The hardest to help will be those stuck behind violent and chaotic armed
gangs in weakly governed states. To escape poverty, they will need a
stabilizing military presence of some kind. They will need police officers with
guns and government authority to defend innocent citizens against violence
and to allow teachers to educate the next generation in peace.
Still I’m possibilistic. The next generation is like the last runner in a very
long relay race. The race to end extreme poverty has been a marathon, with
the starter gun fired in 1800. This next generation has the unique opportunity
to complete the job: to pick up the baton, cross the line, and raise its hands in
triumph. The project must be completed. And we should have a big party
when we are done.
Knowing that some things are enormously important is, for me, relaxing.
These five big risks are where we must direct our energy. These risks need to
be approached with cool heads and robust, independent data. These risks
require global collaboration and global resourcing. These risks should be
approached through baby steps and constant evaluation, not through drastic
actions. These risks should be respected by all activists, in all causes. These
risks are too big for us to cry wolf.
I don’t tell you not to worry. I tell you to worry about the right things. I
don’t tell you to look away from the news or to ignore the activists’ calls to
action. I tell you to ignore the noise, but keep an eye on the big global risks. I
don’t tell you not to be afraid. I tell you to stay coolheaded and support the
global collaborations we need to reduce these risks. Control your urgency
instinct. Control all your dramatic instincts. Be less stressed by the imaginary
problems of an overdramatic world, and more alert to the real problems and
how to solve them.