Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World – and Why Things Are Better Than You Think

The Professionals: Experts and Activists
I love subject experts, and as we all must do, I rely heavily on them to
understand the world. When I know, for example, that all population experts
agree that population will stop growing somewhere between 10 billion and 12
billion, then I trust that data. When I know, for example, that historians,
paleodemographers, and archeologists have all concluded that until 1800,
women had on average five or more children but only two survived, I trust
that data. When I know that economists disagree about what causes economic
growth, that is extremely useful too, because it tells me I must be careful:
probably there is not enough useful data yet, or perhaps there is no simple
explanation.
I love experts, but they have their limitations. First, and most obviously,
experts are experts only within their own field. That can be difficult for
experts (and we are all experts in something) to admit. We like to feel
knowledgeable and we like to feel useful. We like to feel that our special
skills make us generally better.
But …
Highly numerate people (like the super-brainy audience at the Amazing
Meeting, an annual gathering of people who love scientific reasoning) score
just as badly on our fact questions as everyone else.
Highly educated people (like the readers of 
Nature,
one of the world’s
finest scientific journals) score just as badly on our fact questions as everyone
else, and often even worse.
People with extraordinary expertise in one field score just as badly on our
fact questions as everyone else.
I had the honor of attending the 64 Lindau Nobel Laureate Meeting, and
addressing a large group of talented young scientists and Nobel laureates in
physiology and medicine. They were the acknowledged intellectual elite of
their field, and yet on the question about child vaccination they scored worse
than any public polls: 8 percent got the answer right. (After this I never take it
for granted that brilliant experts will know anything about closely related
fields outside their specializations.)
Being intelligent—being good with numbers, or being well educated, or
even winning a Nobel Prize—is not a shortcut to global factual knowledge.
Experts are experts only within their field.
And sometimes “experts” are not experts even in their own fields. Many
activists present themselves as experts. I have presented at all kinds of activist
conferences because I believe educated activists can be absolutely crucial for
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improving the world. Recently I presented at a conference on women’s rights.
I strongly support their cause. Two hundred ninety-two brave young feminists
had traveled to Stockholm from across the world to coordinate their struggle
to improve women’s access to education. But only 8 percent knew that 30-
year-old women have spent on average only one year less in school than 30-
year-old men.
I am absolutely not saying that everything is OK with girls’ education. On
Level 1, and especially in a small number of countries, many girls still do not
go to primary school, and there are huge problems with girls’ and women’s
access to secondary and higher education. But in fact, on Levels 2, 3, and 4,
where 6 billion people live, girls are going to school as much as, or more
than, boys. This is something amazing! It is something that activists for
women’s education should know and celebrate.
I could have picked other examples. This is not about activists for women’s
rights, in particular. Almost every activist I have ever met, whether
deliberately or, more likely, unknowingly, exaggerates the problem to which
they have dedicated themselves.