Dynamics of tourism development in Spain Introduction Chapter I. Development of tourism industry and its types in Spain

Figure6. global evolution of tourist mentions of Spain
Source: UNWTO.com

By studying specific zones in Spain (the most affected zones as well as the major tourist spots), what can be seen is that the impact of the crisis is very unequal in terms of the volume of tourist mentions related to the virus. In terms of the Security Perception Index, when comparing figures at the start of the crisis to figures on the 3^rd March, the Basque Country shows the most substantial decline (-11.09%) out of the five destinations analyzed. By contrast, the Canary Islands show a slight improvement over this period. Despite the general negative dynamics over the last few days, confidence figures remain in the high ranges. The volatility of this indicator shows how highly sensitive the tourism sector is and how important it is properly managing communication in the face of this crisis. Indeed, this could be the key element enabling recovery to previous confidence figures as soon as possible.

Although the nature of the pandemic means that it should prove a temporary negative shock, this is unlikely to be the case for the tourism sector. Not only is the sector expected to take longer to recover to 2019 levels, the crisis is also likely to drive structural changes in demand for tourism services. The perceived risk of transmission could deter foreign tourists, stimulate tourism nearer to home and drive travelers away from more crowded environments. Although recovery came relatively swiftly after crises of confidence in the past (such as the 9/11 attacks), on this occasion it is highly likely that it will take longer for tourist mobility to reach pre-pandemic levels. The cost in terms of jobs will unquestionably be considerable and will force relocation to other activities (construction, national tourism, and logistics service and last-mile delivery). The sector’s gross operating surplus (including gross mixed income) is also set to contract sharply in 2020; nevertheless, the drop in the return on capital will come after years of strong growth, so that the companies that remain viable should be able to withstand the blow.