Figure 3.4: Gross replacement rates: Model Vs U.S.
birth projections for 2075 under three plausible sets of assumptions: low-cost, i.e. favor-
able demographic conditions, intermediate, i.e. best estimates of likely future demographic
conditions, and high-cost, i.e. financially disadvantageous demographic conditions. The
projections are as follows:
1. Low-cost: life expectancy of 80.55, social security area population growth rate of
0.16%,
Student Version of MATLAB
2. Intermediate: life expectancy of 83.95, social security area population growth rate
of 0.09%, and
3. High-cost: life expectancy of 87.55, social security area population growth rate of
0.01%.
Gross replacement rate
The projections for the growth rate of the social security area population can be taken
directly to the model. To use the life expectancy projections, I augment the baseline
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