Диссертацияларининг асосий илмий натижаларини чоп этиш тавсия этилган илмий нашрлар ва Россия



Download 14,49 Mb.
Pdf ko'rish
bet32/243
Sana25.03.2022
Hajmi14,49 Mb.
#510123
TuriДиссертация
1   ...   28   29   30   31   32   33   34   35   ...   243
Bog'liq
Иқтисодиёт- тахлил ва прогноз журнал 2 сон 2021 факат

CA=S-I
S=I+CA=Y-C-G
S=Y-C-G=(Y-T-C)+(T-G)=S^p+S^g
S^p=I+CA-S^g=I+CA-(T-G)=I+CA+(G-T)
CA=S^ρ-I-(G-T)
CA = current account balance
S = saving

= investment
S^ρ = private saving
S^g = government saving
Y = GDP
T = tax revenue
G = government expenditure
C = consumption
Data and methodology
In the empirical analyses, we used time series data 
of Uzbekistan for the period of 2000-2020 in order to 
check the relationship between fiscal deficit and current 
account, and vice versa. The dependent variable is current 
account balance over GDP and the main explanatory 
variable is fiscal balance over GDP. Moreover, interest 
rate, inflation, nominal exchange rate and broad money 
were used as control variables (table 2-3).
Table 2
Descriptive statistics
Variables
Obs
Mean
Std.Dev.
Min
Max
Current Account balance / GDP
21
2.56%
4.31%
-7.09%
7.70%
Fiscal Balance / GDP
21
1.17%
4.87%
-10.56%
12.38%
Interest rate
21
15.95%
6.06%
9.00%
30.00%
Inflation
21
10.55%
7.08%
3.70%
28.20%
Exchange rate
21
2,718.75
2,839.34
237.76
10,064.73
M2 / GDP
21
17.07%
3.85%
10.25%
24.20%
The increase in budget 
deficit will lead to domestic 
absorption and, thus, 
increase domestic income, 
which will lead to an 
increase in imports and 
widen the current account 
deficit


25
№ 2 (13)
Апрель-июнь, 2021 йил
Table 3
Correlation matrix of variables
Variables
Current Account 
balance / GDP
Fiscal 
Balance / 
GDP
Interest 
rate
Inflation
Exchange 
rate
M2 / 
GDP
Current Account balance / GDP
1
Fiscal Balance / GDP
0,3322
1
Interest rate
-0,1739
0,3656
1
Inflation
-0,1526
-0,0585
0,3972
1
Exchange rate
-0,1678
0,0069
0,4091
0,8247
1
M2 / GDP
0,2477
-0,2043
-0,4106
-0,3738
-0,2633
1
We used an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) 
model in the econometric analyses, we also used 
Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model itself to check the 
robustness of the results. When we use the time-series 
data for econometric analysis, we need to make sure 
that the indicators are not stationary. But, indicators 
of the analysis are stationary (average, variance and 
autocorrelation structure do not change over time) 
(except for the inflation index), therefore, we calculated 
the first difference of the variables before applying the 
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test.
Y_i=Z_i-Z_(i-1)
The results of The Augmented Dickey-Fuller test 
was provided in the table below (Table 4).
Table 4
Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test results
Variable name
t-test 
MacKinnon 
approximate p-val
-
ue for Z(t)
Lags
Dif_CA
-4,091***
0,001
1
Dif_FiscalDeficit
-3,292**
0,0153
1
Dif_Interest_Rate
-3,174**
0,0215
1
CPI
-4,134***
0,0009
1
Dif_LogFExchange
-4,236***
0,0006
1
Dif_M2
-4,036***
0,0012
1
Standard errors in parentheses
*** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1

Download 14,49 Mb.

Do'stlaringiz bilan baham:
1   ...   28   29   30   31   32   33   34   35   ...   243




Ma'lumotlar bazasi mualliflik huquqi bilan himoyalangan ©hozir.org 2024
ma'muriyatiga murojaat qiling

kiriting | ro'yxatdan o'tish
    Bosh sahifa
юртда тантана
Боғда битган
Бугун юртда
Эшитганлар жилманглар
Эшитмадим деманглар
битган бодомлар
Yangiariq tumani
qitish marakazi
Raqamli texnologiyalar
ilishida muhokamadan
tasdiqqa tavsiya
tavsiya etilgan
iqtisodiyot kafedrasi
steiermarkischen landesregierung
asarlaringizni yuboring
o'zingizning asarlaringizni
Iltimos faqat
faqat o'zingizning
steierm rkischen
landesregierung fachabteilung
rkischen landesregierung
hamshira loyihasi
loyihasi mavsum
faolyatining oqibatlari
asosiy adabiyotlar
fakulteti ahborot
ahborot havfsizligi
havfsizligi kafedrasi
fanidan bo’yicha
fakulteti iqtisodiyot
boshqaruv fakulteti
chiqarishda boshqaruv
ishlab chiqarishda
iqtisodiyot fakultet
multiservis tarmoqlari
fanidan asosiy
Uzbek fanidan
mavzulari potok
asosidagi multiservis
'aliyyil a'ziym
billahil 'aliyyil
illaa billahil
quvvata illaa
falah' deganida
Kompyuter savodxonligi
bo’yicha mustaqil
'alal falah'
Hayya 'alal
'alas soloh
Hayya 'alas
mavsum boyicha


yuklab olish