Development finance assessment

Table 2 Uzbekistan: Selected Economic Indicators
Economic Indicators
Average 
2000-16**
2017
2018
2019(e)
2020(p)
2021(p)
Real GDP growth, y-on-y (in 
percent)
6.8
4.5
5.4
5.6
1.5 – 2.0
7.0
Consumer Price Inflation 
(Year Average, percent)
13.8
13.9
17.5
14.5
12.6
10.6
General Gov. Overall Fiscal 
Balance (percent of GDP)
0.5
1.6
2.1
0.0*
(3.5)
(1.3)
Current Account Balance 
(percent of GDP)
4.0
2.5
(7.1)
(5.6)
(9.5) – (9.8)
(6.4)
Source: IMF, 2020. https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/profile/UZB
* 
Note:
Including policy lending, General Gov. Overall Fiscal Balance expanded to 3.9 percent of GDP in 2019.
** Uzbekistan’s national data and statistics prior to 2017 are known to be inaccurate. The high average economic 
growth performance prior to the reforms is not comparable to the post-2017 data. The IMF revised its data series for 
Uzbekistan from 2017 onwards. Therefore, the DFA relies on international data from 2017 onwards.
Rapid credit growth, price liberalization, public wage adjustments, and high inflation 
expectations have maintained price pressures in 2019. Containing double-digit inflation 
presents a significant challenge to monetary policy response measures to COVID-19. It 
1
Under the hypothesis that the pandemic and required containment efforts peak in the second quarter for most 
countries and recede in the second half of the year.

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13
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT
induces upward pressures on the already high interest rate, which makes private sector 
borrowing expensive. It erodes both citizens’ purchasing power as well as their patience 
with the recently enacted economic reforms. The Central Bank of Uzbekistan (CBU) kept its 
benchmark interest rate unchanged at 15% during its May 2020 meeting. The GoU intends 
to limit inflationary pressures and achieve its constant inflation target of 5% by 2023 by 
continuing their tight monetary policy, containing credit growth and phasing out directed 
credit.
Uzbekistan’s economy has traditionally been based on the exploitation of natural 
resources and agricultural exports
2
. These provided the authorities with significant export 
revenues and access to foreign exchange to finance its state-led development objectives. 
The mining sector remains largely in state hands, despite some joint ventures and foreign