$25 billion full-employment deficit, year 4 FIGURE I I .A Standardized deficits, (a) In the left-hand graph the standardized deficit Is zero at the full-employment output GDP(. Butte is also zero at the recessionary output GDP2. because the $500 ЫНюп of government expenditures at GDP2 equals the $500 billion of tax revenues that would be forthcoming at the full-employment GDP, .There has been no change In fiscal policy (b) In the right-hand graph, discretionary fiscal policy, as reflected in the downward shift of the tax line from T, to T2. has Increased the standardized budget deficit from zero In year 3 to $25 billion in year 4. This is found by comparing the $500 billion of government spending in year 4 with the $475 Мйоп of taxes that would accrue at the full-employment GDP3. Such a rise in the standardized deficit (as a percentage of potential GDP) Identifies an expansionary fiscal policy
Endi a rasmda ko ‘rsatilgandek pasayish yuzaga kelib, YalM YalMj dan YaIM2 ga tushishini faraz qiling. Endi hukumat hech qanday diskretsion xarakatlar qilmayapdi va G hamda T chiziqlari rasmda ko ‘rsatilgandek qolayapdi deb faraz qiling. YaIM2 da soliq kirimlari avtomatik ravishda 450 000 000 000$ (c nuqta) ga tushib davlat xarajatlari esa o ‘zgarmagan xolda 500 000 000 000$ bo ‘lib qoladi (b nuqta). 50 000 000 000$ byudjet defitsiti yuzaga keladi (bc oralig‘i bilan ko ‘rsatilgan). Lekin bu siklik difitsit pasayishga ketib borayotgan iqtisod chiqimi bo‘lib hukumatning diskretsion moliyaviy faoliyatining natijasi emas. Biz bu defitsitdan hukumat kengyatirilgan moliyaviy siyosatni yuritayapdi deb xato qilishimiz mumkin.
Bu xolat a rasmda 2 yil standartlashtirilgan byudjet defitsitini muhokama qilganimizda yoritiladi. 500 000 000 000$ 2 yil hukumat chiqimlari G chizig ‘ida b nuqtasi bilan berilgan va T chizig ‘ida a nuqta bilan ko ‘rsatilgan 500 000 000 000$ soliq kirimlari YAIM to ‘liq bandlik xolatiga etganda yuzaga kelishi mumkin. b va a nuqtalari ikkisi ham 500 000 000 000$ ni bildirganligi uchun 2 yildagi standartlashtirilgan defitsit 0 ga teng, chunki bu defitsit potensial YAIM ning foiz qismidadir. Ikkala yilda ham standartlashtirilgan defitsit 0 ga tengligi hukumatning o ‘z diskretsion moliyaviy siyosatini pasayish vujudga kelib mavjud defitsit 50 000 000 000$ natija bersada o ‘zgartirmaganligini ko ‘rish mumkin.
Keyin b rasmini ko ‘rib chiqamiz. Real foyda YaIM3 to ‘liq bandlikdan YaIM4 ga tushgan deb faraz qiling va shu bilan birga 4 yildagi federal hukumatning pasayishga soliq darajalarini pasaytirish bilan javob berishi soliq chizig‘ining T1 dan T2 siljishini faraz qiling. Standartlashtirilgan defitsit o ‘lchamiga nima bo ‘ldi? e da ko ‘rsatilgandek hukumat chiqimlari 4 yilda 500 000 000 000$ ga teng. Biz u miqdorni agar YalM to‘liq bandlik xolati yuzaga kelishi mumkin bo‘lgan 475 000 000 000$ soliq kirimi bilan qiyoslaymiz. Ya’ni biz G chizig‘idagi e nuqtani T2 chizig‘idagi x nuqta bilan solishtiramiz.25 000 000 000$ e x dan kattaroq bo ‘lib 4yil uchun standartlashtirilgan byudjet defitsitiga teng. Potensial YaIM ning foizi sifatida
standartlashtirilgan byudjet defitsiti yildagi 0 dan (soliq darajasi qisqartirilishidan oldin) bir qancha ijobiy foizga 4 yilda [=( $25 billion /GDP 3) x100] ko ‘tarildi. Bu ikki yil ichidagi to‘liq bandlik defitsiti nisbiy o‘lchamlari o‘sishi moliyaviy siyosatning rag‘batlantiruvchi siyosat ekanligini ko ‘rsatadi.
Bunga qarama qarshi agar biz standartlashtirilgan o defitsitni keying yildagi standartlashgan byudjet profitsiti ko ‘rsak unda biz fiskal siyosatni cheklovchi turdagi deb xisoblashimiz mumkin. Standartlashtirilgan byudjet soliq kirimlaridagi avtomatik o ‘zgarishlarni moslashtirilishi standartlashtirilgan byudjet profitsiti o ‘sishi hukumat o ‘z chiqimlarini kamaytirgani (G) yoki soliq kirimlarini oshirganini (T) bildiradi. Bu G va T dagi o ‘zgarishlar biz cheklangan fiskal siyosat elementi deb aniqlagan yaqqol diskretsion faoliyatdir4.
