Covid-19 and Consumer Future Restaurant Intentions

COVID-19

COVID-19 - officially Coronavirus Disease 2019, and 2019-nCoV - is a severe, acute, respiratory disease that can result in death and other bodily harm. The disease appears to have originated in the Wuhan area of Hubei Province, China, and is related to severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) (Fauci, Lane, & Redfield, 2020). The case fatality rate (CFR) in the United States is 6% with 27.13 deaths per 100,000. For the top ten countries most impacted by COVID-19 the CFR ranges from 16.4% in Belgium to 4.5% in Germany (Johns Hopkins University, 2020).

Overall mortality of COVID-19 has been debated, but what makes it particularly deadly is its infection rate (R₀). R₀ represents the number of people a single infected person is expected to infect. A number over 1 indicates that they will infect more than one person, and a number of less than one indicates that they will infect less than one person. Numbers over 1 suggest that cases are increasing, and less than one suggested that cases are decreasing (Jones, 2007). Initial reports of R₀ in Wuhuan were very high (R₀=2.2-2.7) with the number of cases doubling every two days (Sanche, et al., 2020). In the United States, by mid-March, the R₀ was 2.2, however that rate has been falling ever since as a result of states requiring citizens to shelter in place, quarantine when coming in from out of state, and more recently requiring the use of masks in public (Fauci, Lane, & Redfield, 2020; Rt Covid-19, 2020; Andrew & Froio, 2020).

Pandemic Economics and Post-COVID-19 Behavior

Pandemics like the Flu of 1918 have been shown to depress economies, even causing extended economic decline after the major threats have abated. Depression of economic activity is found on both the supply and demand sides (Correia, Luck, & Verner, 1918). The Flu of 1918 resulted in the deaths of 2.1% of the Global population, which would be equal to 150 million people today, and resulted in 6% declines in GDP and 8% declines in overall consumption (Barro, Ursúa, & Weng, 2020). As the Flu of 1918 seemed to wind down many cities, like Cleveland, Ohio, decided to reopen, without any restrictions. The result was that consumers flooded into the retail environment, including restaurants, bars, theaters, and bowling alleys, and the flu experienced a second spike in that city (Kilpatrick, 2020, April 12). In South Korea more than one hundred cases of COVID-19 have been traced back to one individual who was sick and went out to a club, causing authorities to try to track more than ten thousand people who may have been exposed and could cause a second wave of outbreak (Gilbert, 2020). Texas has seen a rise in new cases of the virus as the state attempts to reopen its economy (Pramuk, & Schoen, 2020).

Some drivers of economic activity that could impact post-pandemic behavior, like colleges and universities reopening, are being urged, but there are those who are cautioning against it. Michael J. Sorrell, President of Paul Quinn College, went so far as to say that reopening colleges and universities at this time, or even thinking about it, “constitutes an abdication of… moral responsibility as leaders (2020, May 15).”

Some states are anxious to begin reopening sporting events; however, stadiums have been described as “Super Spreader Events,” and many of the reasons why these events can be so dangerous are also prevalent in the restaurant servicescape. Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, and infectious disease expert at The University of California, San Francisco, points to three reasons for the increased danger:

1. 
   Proximity: in stadiums people are close together, increasing the chances of spreading disease.
   
2. 
   Prolonged Contact: spectators do not interact quickly. They sit next to each other, yelling - which can also increase the likelihood of aerosolizing the droplets expelled from one’s mouth - for hours.
   
3. 
   Contaminated Surfaces: known as Fomite Transmission, there are many surfaces in stadiums that can be touched by many different people, increasing the chance of infection.
   

Like stadiums, restaurant guests also sit in close proximity to one another; are in the same space with each other for a prolonged period of time; and touch many surfaces, from door handles and chair backs, to linens and cutlery (Why Stadiums Are Incubators for Coronavirus Spread [Video file], 2020). Indeed, in Italy, many point to a single soccer game as a vector point for the initial spread of COVID-19 which led to the severity of the disaster in that country (Robinson, 2020, April 01).

The United States Centers for Disease Control have issued guidelines for the reopening of business in states that are choosing to do so. The guidelines call for the food and beverage industry to: operate with limited seating capacity and maintain social distancing; provide individual cleaning products in bathrooms, including sanitary wipes; to make use of single use items and disposable menus; and more. In addition to the recommendations on sanitation and in restaurant products, the regulations further advise food and beverage establishments to implement: daily health screenings of all employees; if workers appear to be sick with signs of COVID-19 that they be sent home immediately and that anyone who has come into contact with the sick employee should also be sent home; notify health officials; close off any areas used by the employee until it can be cleaned and sanitized, and that the area should not be cleaned for 24 hours; establish procedures for transporting sick employees home or to the hospital; and to advise the sick employee to not return to work until they have met the CDC guidelines for self quarantining (CDC, 2020).