Conclusion
To sum up, will there be changes, such as rethinking goals and the role of monetary policy in macroeconomic regulation? In my opinion, such changes may occur. This is convinced by a look at a very recent situation: in countries that were not limited by external rules for conducting macroeconomic policies — a priori they were considered trustworthy of investors — it was possible through financial innovations without the risk of external trust to create new mechanisms to expand domestic demand, satisfying it due to imports, which did not pose a threat to inflation. In other countries, attempts to expand domestic demand through debt mechanisms have led to condemnation from international organizations and leaders, have been punished by the outflow of capital and the cost of external credit. Naturally, even with the same monetary regimes, the macroeconomic equilibrium in two groups of countries was established in completely different ways.
Today, Japan is actively investing in the development of the domestic market. The success of this strategy is hard to miss. If other emerging markets and emerging economies choose the right path, then how will their monetary policy change? It, as before, through a certain monetary regime, will control the dynamics of the supply-demand ratio according to the stability criterion of the monetary unit. But the adjustment mechanism will not necessarily be "repressive" - through a rise in price or limitation of lending. If the emission mechanisms are closely related to the real sector, then the adjustment will be possible through certain structural changes, which will contribute to economic development. In advanced countries, changes in approaches to monetary policy will have the opposite vector — tightening financial regulation within countries and decreasing rents from the world using their currencies as reserve ones will reduce the ability to provide additional effective demand through financial innovations and attract foreign capital, therefore ensuring monetary stability will require a more disciplined monetary policy.
The general long-term trend in the evolution of monetary policy will be a decrease in its "independence" from the strategy of economic development of each individual country, that is, the only correct policy will no longer be determined by "consensus" - Washington or any other. On the other hand, the establishment of exchange rates, on which price competitiveness of economies largely depends today, can again become the object of international norms, which will ensure fair exchange between countries.
Do'stlaringiz bilan baham: |