Coronavirus Outbreak: All the Secrets Revealed About the Covid-19 Pandemic. A complete Rational Guide of its Evolution, Expansion, Symptoms and First Defense

How Bad Could The Outbreak Be?
The novel corona virus, similar to SARS, seems highly contagious. The size
of an epidemic depends on how quickly and easily a virus is transmitted from
one person to another. Although work has just started, scientists have
estimated that without successful containment measures, every person with
the new corona virus could infect between 1.5 and 3.5 people elsewhere. This

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would make the virus nearly as infectious as SARS, another corona virus that
spread in China in 2003 and was contained after 8,098 people were sickened
and 774 killed. Those respiratory viruses may move through the air, wrapped
in tiny droplets formed when a sick person breathes, speaks, coughs, or
sneezes. Some droplets fall within a few feet to the ground. This makes it
harder for the virus to get unlike viruses like measles, chickenpox and
tuberculosis, which can fly through the air for a hundred miles. Nevertheless,
detecting is better than H.I.V. or hepatitis which only spreads by direct
contact with an infected person's body fluids.
If each individual infected with the new corona virus contaminates two to
three other people, this may be sufficient to sustain and intensify an epidemic
if nothing is done to reduce it. Contrast that to a virus less infectious, like
seasonal flu. Those with the flu appear, on average, to infect 1.3 other people.
The difference may seem slight, but the result is a striking contrast: In the
same situation, only about 45 people could be infected.
The number of cases outside of China has so far been limited. Yet reports
have occurred in several countries in recent days, including the United States,
of citizens who have not visited China. In addition, in 2003, the number of
cases within China far exceeded the rate of SARS cases. The actual number
of cases is almost definitely much greater than the number officially
confirmed by laboratory tests.
Thousands of people are suspected of having been infected in Hubei
province, where the epidemic started, but have not been officially diagnosed.
Doctors say there's a shortage of test kits and other medical supplies, and
residents say it's almost difficult to get the health care they need to treat the
corona virus — or even diagnose it—. Various epidemiological models
predict the total number of cases to be 100,000, or more. Experts have urged
caution when calculating these figures.