BUDGET REVIEW: GERMANY
OECD JOURNAL ON BUDGETING – VOLUME 2014/2 © OECD 2015
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existing and developing priorities including their multi-annual cost implications. The
multi-year expenditure projections brought forward from the previous year’s budget cycle
(including through the benchmark figures decision in February/March, the Stability
Programme projections from April and through to the draft budget itself) must therefore
also be aligned with the overall multi-annual fiscal constraints. These multi-annual
projections in turn form the basis for the subsequent year’s budget formulation process,
which gets underway shortly after the Financial Plan itself is published. In this manner, the
“opening position” for expenditure in each line ministry will be consistent with the fiscal
rule, subject to economic forecast changes that may require a recalibration of the budgetary
aggregates.
The above approach is distinct in some respects from the type of medium-term
expenditure framework or multi-annual ceilings that are used in other OECD countries. It
is notable, in particular, that the Financial Plan is not represented as being “binding” in any
formal sense upon the budgetary processes and decisions that come in subsequent years;
nor is the document formally approved by parliament, being presented for information
purposes only. However, in practical terms, the Financial Plan embodies a series of
decisions and commitments relating to the conduct of fiscal policy over the medium term,
and as such it shows limited scope for discretion or ambiguity. Once the Financial Plan is
laid down and agreed by government, it assumes significant influence over the shape of
future budgetary policy, unless some external “shock” disturbs the planned course.
This approach is closely related to the top-down budgeting mechanism, in that it
carries forward a profound, inherently bureaucratic momentum, and it therefore carries a
similar profile of benefits and risks. Multi-year financial planning in Germany is fixed,
clear, orderly and provides for a coherent and integrated overall approach. On the other
hand, there is a limited window of opportunity to take stock of the medium-term strategy
or to adjust multi-year budgetary allocations in line with evolving priorities. Moreover,
there are no clear incentive mechanisms for ministries to be innovative and proactive in
identifying savings since they cannot readily retain any such savings for their own net
benefit (see next section).
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